Who would win Congress today? New poll shows one party with 16-point lead

National PoliticsThe U.S. Capitol is seen from the Washington Monument, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)AP Photo/Pablo Martinez MonsivaiDemocrats hold a significant advantage with just about one month before the midterm elections, according to a new poll. The latest YouGov/The Economist poll, released Tuesday, showed Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot reached a new high. It found that Democrats have a 16-point advantage over Republicans, with 53% of likely voters planning on supporting Democrats and 38% supporting Republicans.YouGov noted that the lead is calculated by “subtracting those percentages before rounding them.” YouGov also highlighted how Democrats’ 16-point lead is larger than their 6-point lead among currently registered voters.According to YouGov, Democrats “have a bigger lead among likely voters in 2026 than they had with a similar group at any point in the 2018 midterms.” Democrats’ largest lead was 11 points in the 2018 midterms, in which the Democrats regained the majority in the House but lost seats in the Senate.The poll found that nearly all Democrats (93%) and Republicans (87%) said they would vote for their respective party’s candidate in the midterm elections. But Democrats have the advantage among independent voters by a 32-point margin. Fifty-nine percent of independents plan to vote for the Democrat, while 27% plan on supporting the Republican. YouGov noted that Democrats’ 32-point lead among independents has jumped 8 points since the poll was conducted in early September. The poll also showed President Donald Trump with a 36% approval rating and a 62% disapproval rating.The poll was conducted Sept. 25 to Sept. 28 among 1,429 U.S. adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.A number of recent polls have shown Democrats with an advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. The RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats with 51% support and Republicans with about 42% support, according to the aggregate of polls.A recent Emerson College poll showed 53% of likely voters plan to support the Democratic candidate in their own district, while 42% plan to support the Republican candidate. Trump also hit his highest disapproval rating yet, with 58% disapproving and 39% approving, according to that poll.Lauren Sforza covers national politics as a content supervisor and reporter for Advance Local, focusing on the Trump administration, elections and members of Congress. Lauren worked as a trending political...