Who will be US president in 2028? Midterm earthquake shakes up Republican and Democrat races

The midterm elections are over, and that means only one thing: the simmering rivalries in the Republican and Democrat parties will bubble to the surface. Donald Trump’s party was destroyed during the elections, as voters issued rejected his war in Iran and lack of action to tackle the cost of living by giving the Democrats control over the Senate and the House. The GOP look set to descend into a period of vicious infighting, with some of Trump’s closest allies - including vice president JD Vance - already lashing out at the decision to go to war with Iran. The Democrats, meanwhile, have seen new candidates gain momentum in what looks likely to be a struggle for the candidacy between the progressive left and centrist wings of the party. The Independent takes a look at the current most likely candidates to enter the White House in January 2029. Jon OssoffUS Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) waves to supporters during an election night rally after winning reelection in the US midterm elections, in Atlanta, Georgia (Reuters)The 39-year-old senator, a rising star within the party, stormed to victory in his re-election bid for the Senate with more than 59 per cent of the vote. US-based prediction market platform Polymarket now gives him a 21 per cent chance of becoming the next president, a 10 per cent increase from the day before the election, after his electoral success has seen his popularity surge. Ossoff built his brand through a direct and unsparing criticism of Trump, who he described on Tuesday night as a “lame duck president.”He has been compared to President Barack Obama, as a strong orator with an appeal to both progressives and centrists who represents a youthful choice in an era of ageing presidents."Together, we’ve affirmed that our task is not just to contain one president’s wickedness, but to heal the brokenness beneath," Ossoff told a crowd of voters on Tuesday evening, adding that Americans rejected the “depravity, corruption and incompetence of the failed lame duck president Donald J. Trump."He is given a 28 per cent chance of becoming the Democrat candidate - well ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in second place. JD VanceVance was Trump’s running mate in 2024 (Getty)The Vice President has immediately sought to distance himself from the key decisions of the Trump administration after the election - despite being at the heart of government.He is currently the clear frontrunner to be selected as the Republican nominee in 2028, given a 34 per cent chance on US predictions market Polymarket.Vance’s chances of becoming the next U.S. President steadily declined from around 25 per cent in early September to around 15 per cent on the day of the election. But he has enjoyed a small uptick since as after he come out to criticise some of the decisions of the administration he has played such an integral part in.“The reason we lost is the war,” he wrote on X, also citing the desire of much of the American electorate to change the U.S. relationship to Israel as a reason for the result.Axios writes that Vance had privately warned that the war was “highly unpopular and could cost Republicans the election.”Vance, a critic of Trump during his first administration, was selected to be the president’s running mate in July 2024, having served more than two years as Ohio senator.Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) speaks during a Get Out the Vote rally for Virginia Democratic candidates in the US midterm elections (Reuters)The U.S. representative for New York's 14th congressional district, known widely as AOC, has solidified her own standing in the midterms.The 37-year-old, who hails from the left wing of the Democrat party and has been one of its most prominent figures in recent years, was first elected into her position in 2018. Ocasio-Cortez comfortably won re-election in her seat with more than 78 per cent of the vote, with 96 per cent of votes counted.She is third in the rankings to become the next President, Polymarket predicts, putting her chances at 13 per cent - just four behind Vance. Her chances of being selected as the Democrat candidate sit at 14 per cent - a slight decline since the election results, as prediction markets looked towards Ossoff.She was the frontrunner for the candidacy just three months ago after a surge in her chances – which saw her given a 23 per cent chance in August – followed a high-profile interview on ABC’s This Week, in which she refused to rule out a presidential campaign.Marco RubioUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears to have remained largely untainted by the Iran war (AFP/Getty)Secretary of State Marco Rubio could also face difficulties in distancing himself from Trump due to his role in the Iran war.But Rubio and Vance may be able to hang the blame on Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who quickly became the face of the conflict as a result of his combative Pentagon press conferences.Rubio is currently given a nine per cent chance of becoming the next president on Polymarket, and a 20 per cent chance of being the next Republican nominee - eight and 14 per cent behind Vance respectively. He has largely managed to steer clear of association with the war and spent little time on the campaign trail during the midterms, perhaps having correctly determined which way the wind was blowing.Unlike Vance in Ohio, the Floridian’s home state remained red, which is also a point in his favor, but he has explicitly said he has no intention of running for the White House if the VP throws his hat into the ring.Polymarket currently puts his odds at 17 per cent.Gavin NewsomCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during a media preview day at the California Science Center (Reuters)Gavin Newsom, the 40th governor of California, has been one of the past year’s surprise stories. The 59-year-old veteran of Californian politics dominated the Democrat primary prediction markets for months, peaking at 40 per cent likelihood of being the presidential nominee in November last year.During that time he trailed Vance, but never by a huge amount, given as high as a 23 per cent chance in October 2025. But his chances have since steadily declined. Analysts say his initial popularity was partly as an immediate default candidate following Trump’s re-election in 2024.It was also a product of his combative media style and his social media presence, including X posts written in all caps and riddle with spelling mistakes in an open mockery of President Trump.Polymarket now gives him just a seven per cent chance of becoming the next president. Newsom will no longer be a governor after the midterms, having fulfilled the maximum of two terms permitted in California.In September, he said his children would have the final say on whether he takes on a 2028 presidential run.Ron DeSantisFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) joins U.S. President Donald Trump as he speaks to the media at Southwest Florida International Airport on October 23, 2026 (Getty)The outgoing Florida governor has been left largely untainted by the Trump administration’s decisions to go to war in Iran. Appearing on Laura Ingraham’s Fox News show late Wednesday, he warned the result was “a rebuke” to the president and a Republican-led Congress defined by “a lack of productivity” on its watch.This clear-eyed analysis of the Republican failure looks to be a clear posturing before the campaign for the primaries begins. A popular conservative figure during the pandemic for resisting Covid-era social distancing rules, DeSantis failed badly as a candidate for the Republican nomination two years ago when he was roundly mocked over his robotic interactions with voters and, even less kindly, over his short stature.Polymarket nevertheless gives him a five percent chance of becoming the next president and a 13 per cent chance of becoming the Republican nominee following a fresh surge in the wake of the midterms.