Who the 2036 Traveler Is, and What It Takes to Serve Them

The Decision Brief Chase Gray, Director of Strategy, Skift Advisory THE VERDICT Travel companies are making decade-long capital decisions using last year’s data about last year’s traveler. Gray said a Four Seasons resort can take seven years to develop. “As you’re thinking in 2026, you’re allocating capital to a resort that won’t open until 2033, and your target guest isn’t your target guest today.” The mismatch between decision timeline and data timeline can be a strategic blind spot. PATHS FORWARD Match the data you use to the timeline of the decision. Gray said intentions and behaviors are useful for next week’s decisions, but demographics and values are what tell you who your traveler will be in 2036. He said values form slowly and hold steadily. “Within a life stage, people typically do not change their values.” Companies using CRM data from last year’s guest to design next decade’s product are solving for a traveler who may not exist. Build for the demographic shifts. Gray said Asia-Pacific will account for one in three incremental trips created between now and 2036, with China alone adding 100 million outbound trips. Gen Z will surpass millennials as the largest traveler segment in the early 2030s. Gen Alpha will be 10% of all travelers by 2036 and one in five by 2040. The companies that build for this turnover will capture growth. Segment by values. Gray presented seven traveler segments clustered into three orientations — enrichment, prestige, and connection — drawn from 29,000 travelers across 34 markets. He said prestige-oriented travelers will grow 4.8% by 2036; connection-oriented travelers will decline. WHAT TO WATCH The prestige orientation — travelers who want access and experiences over traditional luxury amenities — is the fastest-growing segment. This aligns with different angles across the Forum. It’s an open question whether mainstream hotel and airline brands can shift their premium product from amenity-based to access-based to capture this cohort. Gray said Gen Alpha will be 10% of all international travelers by 2036. The companies that start thinking about them now will have a lead on everyone else. Access all the Skift Takeaways from this event, as well as full session videos, presentation documents, and more editorial coverage at our Skift Global Forum attendees hub.