Which demographics must turn out to ensure Byron Donalds keeps Florida red

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) could face a tough challenge in keeping Florida red in the state’s gubernatorial race against Democratic nominee David Jolly next week.To win the reliably red state, Donalds needs to maintain his electoral advantage among older and white voters while improving his performance among Hispanic voters and independents, two voting blocs that may be crucial to the outcome of the election.While Donalds is technically leading Jolly by a wide margin in multiple polls, some show the congressman and his opponent in a statistical tie. It remains to be seen whether the election results translate to a dead-heat race. Here are the most important demographics that need to turn out for Donalds to ensure Florida remains a Republican stronghold.Older voters Voters older than 55 generally support Donalds more than Jolly, according to an October poll from the University of North Florida.For Florida voters between 55 and 64, 58% of respondents lean more toward Donalds compared to Jolly’s 41%. And for Florida voters older than 65, 52% of respondents lean more toward Donalds and 46% do the same for Jolly.If those two age groups show up at polling locations, Donalds will have a sizable advantage. However, he will need to overcome Jolly’s edge with younger voters.Among voters aged 18-24, Jolly leads Donalds 68%-25%. Similarly, Jolly leads Donalds 60%-35% among voters aged 25-34.Notably, more voters in the 35-44 age bracket lean toward Donalds over Jolly, 50%-42%. But those percentages flip in favor of Jolly among voters in the 45-54 age range.In short, Donalds’s advantage among older voters could help get him elected to the governor’s mansion, combined with the size of Florida’s Republican electorate. There are nearly 5.68 million registered Republicans in the Sunshine State compared to over 4.13 million registered Democrats, according to the Florida Department of State.Racial breakdown Another strong demographic for Donalds is white voters, who back him more than either black or Hispanic voters.In the University of North Florida poll, 55% of white respondents support Donalds over Jolly’s 42%. The number of white voters who responded to the survey’s matchup between the two gubernatorial candidates was considerably higher than the shares of black voters and Hispanic voters who answered.Only 10% of black respondents favored Donalds, whereas Jolly had 80%. The wide gap shows Donalds has struggled to attract black voters, who appear to be more concerned about his close alignment with President Donald Trump and his support for Republican policies than the historical significance of electing Florida’s first black governor.Meanwhile, Hispanic voters are split between the two contenders. Donalds has 48% support in this racial demographic, narrowly surpassing Jolly’s 47%. This group could prove to be a possibly major vulnerability for the Florida Republican, as Hispanics represent about one-fifth of the state’s electorate.Independents One area of weakness for Donalds is the independent vote, which could make or break his chances of becoming governor.The aforementioned poll puts Donalds at 38% support in the category of voters with no party affiliation, placing him below Jolly’s 55%. The 17-point gap is a significant sign that could help explain why the race has tightened considerably.Part of the reason more independents are leaning toward Jolly could be that he was a former Republican congressman who later became a Democrat and has tried appealing to moderates who may dislike Donalds’s platform or the Republican Party’s direction. Trump endorsed Donalds, so it is possible the president’s support could turn away some unaffiliated voters.Some argued that was the motivation for Donalds removing references to Trump from his campaign website last month, but the Florida Republican explicitly denied he was distancing himself from the president. Trump and Donalds later appeared together at a campaign rally in Fort Myers. Trump is set to headline another rally for Donalds in Daytona Beach on Friday.TRUMP SAYS TALARICO’S CAMPAIGN ABSENCE WAS EITHER ‘MENTAL ILLNESS’ OR FOOD POISONING FROM MEATFactoring in all demographics, the University of North Florida poll features Donalds leading Jolly 49%-47% statewide, with 4% left undecided. If the poll accurately reflects the election results, Donalds will win the close race by a few points.The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab conducted the survey from Oct. 12-19, polling 1,471 likely Florida midterm election voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 percentage points.