Which Airports Are Projected To Be The World's Busiest A Decade From Now?

Published Aug 28, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT Paul has had a career of 25+ years focused on the international technology sector, which has taken him to over 100 countries. Along the way, he developed a deep love for aviation, with a travel bucket list measured by aircraft types flown rather than destinations reached. Now he brings that avgeek passion, along with the journalism experience he accumulated early in his career, to write insightful pieces for Simple Flying. When it comes to the world's busiest airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) remains the one to beat. ATL handled 106.3 million passengers in 2025, retaining first place ahead of Dubai International Airport (DXB) at 95.2 million and Tokyo Haneda Airport (HND) at 91.7 million. Yet beneath Atlanta, the rankings are becoming remarkably compressed, with seven airports all handling more than 82 million annual passengers, so all within approximately 20% of the top spot. All the while, Atlanta traffic is actually down 3.8% from its high of over 110 million passengers in 2019, further narrowing the gap. Which means that a decade from now, the rankings for busiest airport could potentially look very different. The Airports Council International expects global passenger traffic to expand at around 3.4% annually over the long term. But that growth will increasingly favor emerging markets and airports with sufficient infrastructure to sustain the growth. So predicting the rankings in 2036 is not simply about extrapolating today's rankings and growth, but also identifying which airports have the space, airline networks, and expansion plans to accommodate tens of millions of additional travelers. The World's Busiest Airport Has Historically Been American Credit: Shutterstock The history of the title is remarkably concentrated. Chicago Midway (MDW) was the world's busiest airport through the 1950s, before traffic migrated to the newly developed Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD). Chicago's aviation authority says Midway relinquished the title as O'Hare overtook it in 1961, while O'Hare subsequently dominated the passenger rankings through the jet age. Atlanta finally broke Chicago's long reign in 1998, handling 73.5 million passengers that year. ATL has subsequently been the world's busiest airport in virtually every year since, with the exceptional pandemic year of 2020 interrupting the streak and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN) briefly taking the top spot. In other words, for most travelers alive today, the title has belonged to either Chicago or Atlanta. Year #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 1950 Chicago Midway New York LaGuardia Los Angeles Washington National San Francisco 1955 Chicago Midway New York-JFK Los Angeles Washington National San Francisco 1960 New York Idlewild/JFK Chicago O'Hare Chicago Midway Los Angeles London Heathrow 1965 Chicago O'Hare New York-JFK Los Angeles London Heathrow San Francisco 1970 Chicago O'Hare Los Angeles New York-JFK London Heathrow Atlanta 1975 Chicago O'Hare Atlanta Los Angeles London Heathrow New York-JFK 1980 Chicago O'Hare Atlanta Los Angeles London Heathrow New York-JFK 1985 Chicago O'Hare Atlanta Los Angeles Dallas/Fort Worth London Heathrow 1990 Chicago O'Hare Dallas/Fort Worth Atlanta Los Angeles London Heathrow 1995 Chicago O'Hare Atlanta Dallas/Fort Worth London Heathrow Los Angeles 2000 Atlanta Chicago O'Hare Los Angeles London Heathrow Dallas/Fort Worth 2005 Atlanta Chicago O'Hare London Heathrow Tokyo Haneda Los Angeles 2010 Atlanta Beijing Capital Chicago O'Hare London Heathrow Tokyo Haneda 2015 Atlanta Beijing Capital Dubai Chicago O'Hare Tokyo Haneda 2020 Guangzhou Atlanta Chengdu Shuangliu Dallas/Fort Worth Shenzhen 2025 Atlanta Dubai Tokyo Haneda Dallas/Fort Worth Shanghai Pudong The next change could be fundamentally different. Rather than another American hub replacing Atlanta, the airports with the strongest prospects for being the busiest airports a decade from now are in the Middle East, China and India. ACI already attributes some of the biggest movements in its latest rankings to infrastructure investment and accelerating Asia-Pacific demand. Atlanta Will Not Give Up The Crown Easily Credit: Shutterstock Atlanta begins the race over the next decade with a formidable advantage. Its 106.3 million passengers in 2025 was around 11 million more than Dubai, and over 20 million more than the next-largest US airport, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Even averaging only 1.5% annual growth would take ATL to approximately 125 million passengers by 2036, meaning another airport would have to become dramatically busier simply to catch it. However, ATL is not invulnerable. It's 106.3 million passengers in 2025 remained 3.8% below its record 2019 total, but that gap is entirely a domestic story. International traffic has risen 17.5% since 2019, while domestic traffic remains 6.6% lower. Southwest Airlines' retrenchment is particularly significant: the airline handled about 4.4 million fewer ATL passengers in 2025 than it did in 2019, although Frontier Airlines has offset some of that decline with its rapid expansion. ATL passengers 2019 2025 Change Domestic 97.9 million 91.4 million -6.5 million (-6.6%) International 12.7 million 14.9 million +2.2 million (+17.5%) Total 110.6 million 106.3 million -4.3 million (-3.8%) ATL is certainly not standing still. Its $11.5 billion long-term capital program includes the widening of Concourse D, upgrades to the Plane Train, new parking and gate capacity, and other terminal and airfield improvements intended to support roughly 125 million passengers annually. That would represent a meaningful increase from today's levels, but is still some way off the infrastructure ambitions of its fastest-rising global rivals. Dubai Is Building An Airport Specifically For The Next Era Credit: Shutterstock Dubai is already Atlanta's nearest challenger. DXB handled 95.2 million passengers in 2025, up 3.1% year-over-year and 10.2% above 2019. Indeed, looking back to pre-pandemic traffic levels, the gap between Atlanta and Dubai has more than halved from 24 million to 11 million. At that pace, DXB could be on track to become the world's busiest airport early in the next decade. Except it likely won't. There are two critical factors to take into account when forecasting 2036 for Dubai. The first is that DXB is set to be replaced by Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC), which is being transformed into an aviation complex of unprecedented scale. Dubai Airports says the expanded airport will have five runways and capacity for 150 million passengers annually within the next decade, eventually rising to 260 million. Dubai's government has also confirmed that operations at DXB will ultimately transfer to DWC, with the first major development phase targeted for completion in the early 2030s. Middle Eastern airport Current/recent position Planned capacity Dubai International (DXB) 95.2m passengers in 2025 Operations ultimately transfer to DWC Al Maktoum International (DWC) Current terminal: 26m capacity 150m initial expansion; 260m ultimate Yet Dubai’s rise is not without risks. DXB has faced significant disruption in 2026 from the US-Iran conflict and associated airspace closures. This reduced traffic more than 20% in the first quarter, and highlighted the airport’s exposure to regional instability. Emirates has since rebuilt much of its schedule, but there is a risk that geopolitical disruption could leave a longer-term mark on demand with travelers who would normally connect through the Middle East. There is also considerable uncertainty around the transition to Al Maktoum International. Dubai plans to move operations from DXB to DWC as the new airport expands, but there is no guarantee that the migration will be complete by 2036. A prolonged transition could leave Dubai’s traffic split between two airports for several years, meaning the city could have the world’s largest aviation market without either DXB or DWC individually ranking first. Istanbul Has The Secret Sauce: Room To Grow Credit: Shutterstock Istanbul Airport (IST) may be one of the strongest challengers for the top spot, yet receives comparatively little attention. IST handled 84.4 million passengers in 2025, up 5.5% in a year and a remarkable 61.8% above its 2019 figure. It has already moved into the same passenger bracket as London Heathrow Airport (LHR) and O'Hare despite only taking over Istanbul's main hub role in 2019. Istanbul's case for becoming one of the world's busiest airports is fundamentally a Turkish Airlines growth story. It carried 92.6 million passengers across its network in 2025, up 8.8% over the prior year. This year, it has transported a further 54 million in the first seven months, up nearly 6%. If that level of growth continues over the next decade, we would project IST to be handling 150-160 million passengers by 2036. Average Annual IST growth, 2026-36 Approximate 2036 passengers 2% 105m 3% 117m 4% 130m 5% 144m 6% 160m Ultimate airport capacity 200m Of course, the big question mark is whether Turkish Airlines and the airport infrastructure can sustain that level of growth. The carrier's original centennial strategy targeted more than 170 million annual passengers and 800-plus aircraft by 2033, representing growth of around 6% per year. Those ambitions have subsequently increased. The Financial Times reported that new chairman Murat Şeker expects a fleet approaching 850 aircraft, a more than 50% increase from the 559 it operates today. Those words might be bombastic optimism from any other airline chief, but Şeker's claims are backed up by the numbers. Turkish Airlines made commitments for 355 Airbus aircraft in 2023, comprising 230 firm orders and 125 purchase rights, and subsequently agreed to acquire up to 75 Boeing 787-9/10s and 150 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, with the Dreamliners arriving between 2029 and 2034. It is also reportedly evaluating a new order for Boeing 777-9 or Airbus A350-1000 aircraft. With all of that new equipment, Turkish Airlines projects average annual growth of around 6% over the next decade, which would comfortably take IST to more than 150 million annual passengers. What strengthens the case is that Istanbul is ultimately designed for 200 million annual passengers, with four massive passenger terminals and six runways, all expected to be completed well in advance of 2036. Şeker also points out that disruption to the Gulf carriers has only benefited Turkish Airlines, allowing it to achieve its growth goals quicker. This means that IST is well-positioned to not only surpass ATL over the next decade, but ultimately emerge ahead of DWC as well. China And India Could Produce Several Top-10 Airports Credit: Shutterstock Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Delhi all have the population and aviation growth to produce the world's busiest airport. But each is increasingly operating as a multi-airport market, allowing secondary airports to absorb demand that might otherwise push the primary hub toward 150 million passengers or more. That makes their metropolitan aviation markets potentially enormous, while reducing the likelihood that any single airport overtakes Atlanta, Dubai or Istanbul. Beijing is the clearest example. Beijing Capital Airport (PEK) handled 70.7 million passengers in 2025, up 5.0%, but the city no longer needs to force further growth through PEK. Beijing Daxing Airport (PKX) already handled 53.6 million passengers, up 8.5%, and is eventually designed for 100 million annually. Together, the two airports could become a 200-million-passenger market, without either individually challenging for the title of the world's busiest airport. Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG) is in a similar position. It handled 85.0 million passengers in 2025, up 10.7%, making it the fastest-growing of the top ten airports. Its Phase IV expansion — including the new 50-million-passenger Terminal 3 — will raise capacity to around 130 million. But Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport (SHA) already handles more than 50 million passengers annually, particularly domestic and regional traffic. Shanghai may therefore become one of the world's largest aviation markets, while PVG itself tops out closer to 120–130 million. Guangzhou Baiyun reached 83.6 million passengers in 2025, up 9.5%, while its new Terminal 3 and fifth runway give it eventual capacity for around 140 million. However, construction began earlier this year on Guangzhou's second major airport at Foshan Gaoming, which is expected to handle around 30 million passengers by the early 2030s and roughly 60 million longer term. Add in the traffic splits to other massive airports in the Pearl River Delta region, such as Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Zhuhai, and CAN is a solid top ten candidate, but unlikely to hit top spot. Delhi Indira Gandhi International Airport (DEL) handled 78.1 million passengers in 2025 and is being expanded to approximately 125 million capacity by 2032. Yet Noida International (DXN) has now opened as a second airport for the capital region, initially offering capacity for 12 million passengers and growing to 70 million. India's extraordinary aviation growth could therefore make Delhi one of the world's largest airport markets without pushing DEL itself to number one. Main airport 2025 Passengers 2025 Growth Future Capacity Secondary Airport Secondary Airport 2025 Passengers Future Capacity Beijing Capital 70.7m +5.0% 100m Beijing Daxing 53.6m 100m Shanghai Pudong 85.0m +10.7% 130m Shanghai Hongqiao 50.2m 70m Guangzhou Baiyun 83.6m +9.5% 140m Foshan Gaoming Not yet open 60m Delhi 78.1m +0.4% 125m Noida International Newly opened 70m The contrast with Istanbul is important. These cities are all likely to generate a higher total aviation demand in their markets, but like London or New York, they are distributing that demand across multiple airports. Istanbul also has a very busy secondary airport at Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SAW), but Turkish Airline's massive growth is concentrated fully at IST, which is designed for 200 million passengers. That concentration proves decisive in an individual airport ranking. Our Projected World's Busiest Airports A Decade From Now Credit: Shutterstock Forecasting airport traffic a decade ahead requires more than extrapolating today's growth rates. Our ranges consider 2025 traffic, regional growth, airport capacity, airline fleet plans and whether metropolitan demand is concentrated at one airport or divided between several. The biggest uncertainties are Istanbul's ability to sustain Turkish Airlines' expansion, Dubai's transition from DXB to DWC, and the growing role of secondary airports in China and India. Projected 2036 rank Airport 2025 Passengers Plausible Range Best Estimate Biggest Variable 1 Istanbul 84.4m 130–160m 145m Turkish Airlines sustaining ~5% growth 2 Dubai Al Maktoum 95.2m 110–150m 140m DXB transfer and Gulf traffic recovery 3 Atlanta 106.3m 118–130m 125m Domestic growth and infrastructure capacity 4 Shanghai Pudong 85.0m 115–130m 124m 130m capacity and Hongqiao split 5 Guangzhou Baiyun 83.6m 110–135m 122m Second Guangzhou-area airport 6 Dallas/Fort Worth 85.7m 105–122m 114m North Texas and American Airlines growth 7 Delhi 78.1m 100–120m 110m Noida absorbing regional growth 8 Denver 82.4m 100–116m 108m Continued domestic hub expansion 9 Tokyo Haneda 91.7m 100–112m 106m Mature market and capacity constraints 10 Singapore Changi 70.0m 95–112m 103m Terminal 5 opening and ramp-up Istanbul narrowly takes first place in our central forecast. Five percent annual growth would take IST from 84.4 million passengers to roughly 145 million by 2036, while Turkish Airlines itself is planning around 6% annual growth and a fleet approaching 850 aircraft. Most critically, IST has eventual capacity for 200 million passengers, giving all that expansion somewhere to go. Dubai has the highest upside but also the widest range. DWC is being developed for 150 million passengers in its first major phase and ultimately 260 million, yet much depends on Dubai recovering fully from 2026's disruption and transferring enough traffic from DXB by 2036. A slower migration could leave Dubai's enormous passenger market split between the two airports rather than producing a clear global number one. Atlanta should remain close to the top, with its 106.3 million starting point making around 125 million passengers achievable without extraordinary growth. Shanghai and Guangzhou could potentially grow faster, but both face infrastructure ceilings and increasingly important secondary airports, while Delhi's future growth will also be shared with Noida. That traffic fragmentation is a major reason none of the three ranks higher in our central forecast. The remaining positions are much less certain. DFW and Denver International Airport (DEN) have credible paths beyond 100 million passengers, while Singapore's new Terminal 5 will add capacity for another 50 million in the mid-2030s. Seoul's Incheon International Airport (ICN) and the new 6-runway King Salman International Airport (RUH) in Riyadh could also enter the top ten. But the clearest conclusion to be drawn is that to claim the crown of world's busiest airport a decade from now, that airport will likely need to exceed 140 million annual passengers, the equivalent of today's traffic at three major New York airports, combined in one facility. Realistically, there are only two airports likely to do that, and our bet is on Istanbul.