Where the Sharp Money Is Landing This Weekend at UFC Paris

Jul 19, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, UNITED STATES; Ryan Spann (red gloves) celebrates defeating Lukasz Brezeski (blue gloves) during UFC 318 at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images This weekend's card in Paris features two of the widest handle-versus-bets gaps we've tracked all year, both pointing squarely at underdogs that the betting public has largely ignored. When a fighter's share of the money dwarfs their share of tickets, that's the clearest signature of sharp, professional bettors overriding the public consensus, and this event has it in spades.The Headline Sharp PlaysNothing on this card compares to the difference in the Ryan Spann-Mario Pinto light heavyweight bout. Pinto is the -305 favorite and holds 87% of all bets, but he's carrying just 16% of the total handle. Spann, priced at +245, is pulling a remarkable 84% of the money on only 13% of the tickets, a staggering 71-point gap between his bet share and his handle share. That kind of split means a small group of large, informed wagers is completely overwhelming a much bigger pool of small public bets on the favorite, and it makes Spann the single clearest sharp underdog play of fight week.Nearly matching that signal is Morgan Charriere against Felipe Lima. Lima sits as the -185 favorite with 82% of bets but only 20% of the handle, while Charriere at +154 is drawing 80% of the money despite just 18% of the tickets. That 62-point gap is the second-biggest difference on the card and tells the same story: professional money has quietly moved onto the live dog while the public piles tickets on the favorite.Additional Underdog Value Worth Tracking Our Current Best OffersChannel debug: betting Three more fights show meaningful, if smaller, sharp underdog signals. Fabia Sintes is drawing 45% of the handle against Michael Aljarouj despite just 11% of bets, a 34-point spread suggesting real money respects Sintes at +110 even though Aljarouj remains the public's favorite. Sofia Montenegro shows a similar pattern against Delphine Benouaich, pulling 85% of the handle on 58% of bets, a 27-point gap that favors the +124 underdog. Dan Hooker rounds out this group in his lightweight matchup with Salahdine Parnasse, taking 66% of the handle against just 46% of bets, a 20-point gap indicating sharp interest in the +440 price despite Parnasse's status as a heavy -600 favorite.A Sharp Favorite Worth NotingNot every signal favors the underdog this week. Fares Ziam stands out as a favorite backed by real money rather than just public hype, carrying 58% of the handle against Axel Sola despite only 28% of bets, a 30-point gap. That difference suggests professional bettors are stacking additional money on Ziam at -148 while the betting public leans toward Sola's plus-money price with smaller, more numerous tickets.For bettors following the smart money into UFC Paris, Spann and Charriere are this week's must-watch sharp underdog plays given their extreme reverse splits, while Sintes, Montenegro, and Hooker offer secondary value and Ziam provides a rare sharp-backed favorite to round out the card. Our Current Best OffersChannel debug: betting