Whatever the outcome, Nov. 3 is a pivot point for Trump

Washington | Oct. 23, 2026, 11:21 a.m. ET | 7 min read At his second inaugural, President Donald Trump portrayed the assassination attempt he had survived months earlier in Butler, Pennsylvania, as a transformative experience.“I felt then and believe more so now that my life was saved for a reason,” President Trump said in his address to the nation on Jan. 20, 2025. “I was saved by God to make America great again.”Since then, Mr. Trump has conducted a presidency like no other – even compared with his own first term – with a boundary-smashing use of executive power, a Republican-controlled Congress that has rarely pushed back, and accumulation of personal wealth unparalleled by a sitting president. Now, with polls showing his average job approval at a second-term low of around 36%, Mr. Trump faces a hinge point: the Nov. 3 midterm elections.The vote will determine control of Congress, and mark the beginning of the next cycle – with attention increasingly turning to the presidential campaign taking shape for 2028.Historically, the president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in the midterms, with voters from the “out party” more motivated to turn out. This year, the Democrats look highly likely to regain control of the House, where they only need a net gain of three seats, and polls suggest they could also take over the Senate. That would change the dynamic in Washington. Kylie Cooper/ReutersProtesters rally against a Trump-proposed triumphal arch at its planned site near the National Mall in Washington. Even if just the House flips, that will open up Mr. Trump and associates, including family members, to congressional investigations, subpoenas, and potentially impeachment. House Democrats are already preparing for inquiries into a range of topics, including Trump family business dealings, the U.S. war with Iran and invasion of Venezuela, and the Jeffrey Epstein files.A Democratic takeover of the Senate would likely deprive Mr. Trump of the majority needed for executive branch and judicial confirmations, including potential Supreme Court vacancies.Mr. Trump may also face more pushback from within his own party – a shift that has already been visible this fall, as some Republicans publicly criticized the president on immigration, Ukraine, and a Russian oligarch bankrolling wedding costs of Donald Trump Jr. That could increase as lawmakers focus on their prospects for post-Trump elections beginning in 2028.At the same time, based on how Mr. Trump has approached the presidency so far, it seems safe to say that his “lame duck” period won’t necessarily follow historic patterns. Analysts across the political spectrum agree that Mr. Trump may actually feel liberated by not having to position himself for a future run – rather than seeing himself or his role as diminished. Some reject the term “lame duck” altogether when considering the remainder of Mr. Trump’s term, given his aggressive use of the office since his return.“He will have the full authority of the presidency until noon on January 20, 2029,” Republican strategist Doug Heye says in an email. “I expect he will use it.” Even with GOP control of Congress for the past two years, Mr. Trump has often chosen to go around the legislative branch in pursuit of his goals – a tendency that will almost certainly increase if Democrats seize one or both chambers.“He’s deliberately bypassing Congress and seeing how much he can get away with in the courts when challenged,” says William Galston, a former domestic policy adviser to President Bill Clinton and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “You can expect a lot more of that in years three and four of his second term.”Examples thus far include aggressive use of tariffs on imports, redirection of congressionally approved funding, and the White House ballroom project.“He has demonstrated the ability, through sheer audacity, to push the perimeter of presidential power way out,” Mr. Galston says.The road to 2028One big question after the midterms will be how Mr. Trump influences the 2028 presidential race, with large fields already forming to compete for the major-party nominations. The president, at times, has jokingly suggested he might even go for a third term, in defiance of the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, and sometimes wears a “2028” cap. Increasingly though, he muses aloud about life after the presidency.For now, on the GOP side, all eyes are on Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio – and on their boss’s potential to play kingmaker. Like the reality TV host he once was, Mr. Trump is already playing up the expected competition. Julia Demaree Nikhinson/APSecretary of State Marco Rubio (photo above, from left), second lady Usha Vance, and Vice President JD Vance arrive with others at a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House, April 28, 2026, in Washington. In the home stretch of the ’28 campaign, will Mr. Trump refrain from potentially controversial actions to protect the Republican nominee? No, says Jordan Cash, an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University, who has studied lame-duck presidents. “He wants to do what he wants to do.” Assuming Mr. Trump intends to vacate the White House on Jan. 20, 2029, that raises the stakes for his true lame-duck period: between the election of his successor on Nov. 7, 2028, and Inauguration Day 2029. After the election, the final test of voter sentiment during the Trump presidency, there’s no telling what he might do before leaving office. Some observers suggest that 10-week period could be especially consequential or even dangerous – potentially packed with unilateral actions aimed at expressing outrage if a Democrat wins.In some ways, Mr. Trump has already followed the playbook of many a second-term president: engulfed in drama, plummeting in polls, and facing the potential for outright scandal.One thing that sets Mr. Trump apart is his single-minded focus on a physical legacy, with various construction projects around Washington, including the ballroom, a triumphal arch, and his plan for a major renovation of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. He has also encouraged, if not ordered, the addition of his name to various public entities, including the airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, and the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington.“Second-term presidents get focused on legacy and having a big impact, and that often leads to overreach,” says Matthew Dickinson, a political scientist at Middlebury College in Vermont.A wild card: the role of the MAGA baseAs much as Mr. Trump’s support has dwindled over time, the president’s base has largely held firm. That could be significant for the president’s ongoing influence over his party.“I agree with just about everything he’s done,” says Joe Hollen, a retired tech worker and military veteran from Weare, New Hampshire, sporting an “America 250” cap. He goes down the list: The war with Iran, the new White House ballroom, the SAVE America Act, a proposed law to require proof of citizenship to vote – all good, he says. Still, Mr. Hollen has his limits: Renaming Lake Ontario and the Gulf of Mexico to Lake America and the Gulf of America? “Ridiculous,” he says. Linda Feldmann/The Christian Science Monitor“I agree with just about everything he’s done,” from the Iran war to the voter-ID rules of the proposed SAVE America Act, says Joe Hollen, a retired tech worker, military veteran, and Trump supporter from Weare, New Hampshire. In deep-red Effingham County, Georgia, retired paper-mill worker David Christian staunchly supports mass deportations, crime crackdowns, and the war in Iran despite high gas prices. “Other presidents would go over [to the Middle East] and talk, and Trump will send destroyers over there,” Mr. Christian says.But just down Highway 21, in the coastal city of Savannah, Trump voter Kai Maria has done a full 180 on the president. “I’m pretty disappointed [in Trump], I’ll say it,” says Mr. Maria, a 20-something welder. He calls the Iran war “a silly war of choice that we’re fighting on Israel’s behalf.” And he’s unhappy with the administration’s handling of the Epstein files – referring to the late financier and convicted sex offender with high-level connections, including to Mr. Trump.Mr. Maria also questions the president’s use of tariffs to promote American manufacturing. “It’s a matter of cost to the consumer,” he says. “Everything is cheaper to make overseas.”He’s not about to go and vote for a Democrat in November, he adds. But, he says, “I’m thinking about sitting [this election] out.”Polls suggest there could be many such Trump voters, who skip the midterms or even vote Democratic on Nov. 3.If Mr. Trump spends the rest of his presidency with Democrats partly or fully running Congress, Professor Dickinson expects two things. First, the president will push his authority “administratively” – that is, bypassing Congress by impounding appropriated funds and declaring emergencies. That’s how Mr. Trump funded the southern border wall in 2019, by redirecting military funds without congressional approval. “He will intensify conflicts with the Democratic Congress by pushing the limits of executive authority as far as he can get away with,” Mr. Dickinson says.Second, he expects the president to focus more on foreign policy, where he has more leeway to operate unilaterally. That would follow the path of many second-term presidents who lost control of Congress and subsequently focused on what was doable.Democrats face the impeachment questionAs for impeachment, Democrats with a House majority may be most inclined to try that strategy against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. To some, trying a third impeachment of Mr. Trump would be an appropriate sanction against a president who has flouted the Constitution at many turns – such as with his unauthorized teardown of the East Wing – even though a two-thirds Senate vote to convict would almost certainly be out of reach. To others, impeaching Mr. Trump would play into his hands.“Trump welcomes impeachment fights,” says Republican strategist Alex Conant. “He welcomes subpoenas that will be ignored.” Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. Americans don’t like partisan impeachments, Mr. Conant adds. “They don’t help with the price of gas. The country wants to see politicians working together, not stuck in gridlock.”Staff writer Patrik Jonsson contributed from Georgia. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? 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