What Zelensky’s threat to Russian airspace means for the future of war and air travel

Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a stark threat to airlines and businesses using Russian airspace, saying it will be “effectively closing” as Ukraine escalates its drone campaign. "We want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, everyone who still uses key Russian airports: the Russian sky is becoming completely dangerous," the Ukrainian president said in an address late on Tuesday.“Drone-infested skies are no place for civilian aviation ... the safe days in Russia’s skies are over,” he added. President Vladimir Putin has responded, saying that his comments were tantamount to a "declaration of state terrorism”. Experts say that te The Ukrainian president has declared Russian airspace "effectively closed" as the country steps up its drone strikes (AFP/Getty)Who still uses Russian airspace?Many international airlines continuing to operate flights to Russian airports, especially in major cities like St Petersburg and Moscow.Kyiv has emphasised that civilian aircraft will not be targeted, but his comments may spark alarm among commercial airlines that continue to operate in the region. Airlines including Emirates, Air China, Turkish Airlines, Flydubai, Qatar and Etihad Airways are among those that have maintained lucrative routes connecting Russia to Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America over the course of the conflict.A number of airlines have continued to use routes that go through Russian airspace (Getty/iStock)The war has already proved dangerous for civilian aircraft. In 2024, Putin admitted that Russian forces had shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. He blamed the incident on Russian defence systems attempting to intercept a Ukrainian drone.Ukraine has closed its airspace to civilian aircraft since the beginning of the war.Why is Zelensky making the threat?Katia Glod, the deputy head of foreign policy at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre (NEST), says there are two main reasons why Zelensky is making the threat.“Of course, Zelensky is partially exaggerating — this closure is not in any way similar to the way Ukraine’s airspace has been closed,” she says. The aftermath of a Russian strike on Kyiv this week (AP)“As Ukraine’s drone strikes are escalating, Zelensky probably felt it was a good ‘PR moment’ — a signal to tell everyone making use of Russian airspace that they are going to lose if they continue to do so.”But she adds that there is also a more strategic element behind the Ukrainian leader’s logic: “It’s part of a wider aim to target the Russian economy, and hit the war machine.”If Moscow becomes difficult to reach for aircraft, there will be “significant” financial consequences, she says. How could the threat influence the future of the war?Analysts say Ukraine’s drone campaign is already having a significant impact on the course of the conflict.“It is altering the cost-benefit of continuing the war,” Ms Glod explains. “So far, Putin has been able to shield Russians from the impact — but over the past months, Ukraine’s strikes are really bringing the war home.”Ukraine’s latest move may encourage Putin toward ending the war, say foreign policy experts (AFP/Getty)Because of this, Zelensky’s threat will influence Putin’s thinking, Ms Glod says.“While he is stubborn, and doesn’t really take advice from the government, he is quite conscious of the people around him. And if this harms their interests, the oligarchs that surround Putin may eventually influence him to begin negotiating an end to the war.” How would the closure of Russian airspace affect Europe?Zelensky’s threat also holds consequences for broader Europe.Together, Nato member states have provided Ukraine with an estimated $120 billion to $130 billion in assistance since 2022. Over the summer, Ukraine has dramatically increased its domestic defence capacity, striking deeper into Russian territory in hopes of bringing an end to the war.But while Kyiv’s threat is hoped to force Putin into negotiations, Ms Glod says a move to target airspace could cause anxiety across the region as Russia ramps up threats against Europe. “While Nato really welcomes Zelensky’s ability to impose costs on Russia, these costs are also a source of worry.”