What will Jackson bring to Villa with Watkins set for exit?

Aston Villa have completed the signing of Nicolas Jackson in a deal worth up to £65m, with Ollie Watkins looking set to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal.Unai Emery's Villa are undergoing a major overhaul this summer, with key players including Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne having already departed.Jackson, 25, joins a number of new additions including Johan Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri.That level of squad disruption was evident on the opening weekend, when Emery's side slumped to a 4-0 defeat at Brighton.With Watkins, 30, unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Villa started without a recognised centre-forward - Emiliano Buendia led the line.The arrival of Jackson - who overtakes Manzambi to become Villa's record signing - from Chelsea gives Emery a specialist striker to work with.It also looks set to coincide with the end of Watkins' six-year spell at Villa, during which he scored 108 goals in 278 games and became one of the defining players of the rise under Emery.However, the stats suggest Jackson is not just a like-for-like replacement for the England international - he is a different type of number nine.On the surface, Jackson's numbers at Bayern Munich last season compare favourably with those of Watkins at Villa.The Senegal forward scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions, averaging 1.0 goal involvements per 90 minutes. Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, an average of 0.6 per 90.Jackson also generated more attacking opportunities. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 compared with Watkins' 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target to 1.2.His expected-goals (xG) figure was also higher, at 0.7 per 90 compared with 0.5, while he averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box to Watkins' 5.6.That fits a pattern which predates his spell in Germany. Among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has registered a higher non-penalty xG figure per 90 than Jackson's 0.55.Getting into scoring positions has rarely been Jackson's main problem - it is his ability to finish chances which has attracted scrutiny. During his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea, he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG in 2023-24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the following campaign.Jackson has converted 18 of 61 big chances in England so far, although Watkins has also missed plenty of high-value opportunities (scoring 24 of 73 since joining Villa in 2020).Interestingly, last season's numbers suggest the gap between them was negligible. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances, compared with 18.9% and 43.2% respectively for Watkins.There is, however, an important caveat. Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances, and Opta says his relatively limited, substitute-heavy sample could make some of his per-90 figures look stronger than they might over a full season.There is another possible difference when Villa lose possession. Jackson averaged 34 high pressures per 90, slightly above Watkins' 31.4, but the distinction becomes clearer in where possession was recovered.Jackson won the ball 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins' 1.8, and regained it in the final third 0.9 times per 90 to Watkins' 0.6.His percentile for possession won in the attacking third was 88th among the Opta striker sample, compared with Watkins' 43rd.The two were almost identical for runs in behind, Jackson averaging 13 per 90 and Watkins 12.7, although the Englishman made slightly more runs which finished inside the penalty area.Watkins also offered more aerially, winning 1.2 aerial duels per 90 compared with Jackson's 0.7, and carried the ball more directly towards goal. So Jackson would not necessarily reproduce every aspect of the player he is replacing.Villa's interest also comes with an element of familiarity. Emery worked with Jackson at Villarreal, where the forward made 27 appearances under him, scoring three goals and providing three assists in 1,195 minutes.Jackson has subsequently credited Emery with transforming his understanding of the game. "Unai taught me everything about football," he said,Jackson has explained that, when he arrived from Senegal, he possessed natural dribbling ability but had much less understanding of how and when to move. Emery helped turn that instinctive talent into a more structured game.Jackson's development accelerated after Emery left Villarreal. During the 2022-23 La Liga season he produced 0.56 non-penalty xG plus xA per 90, a rate bettered by only seven players with at least 1,500 minutes, all representing Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid.Watkins has provided Villa with reliability, running power and goals throughout one of the club's most successful periods of the modern era.Jackson arrives with a different profile. He is five years younger, gets more touches, carries the ball more frequently, creates more for others and, in limited minutes last season, generated shots and high-quality chances at an impressive rate.There remain questions around whether those per-90 numbers would survive a heavier workload, while his finishing record at Chelsea explains why doubts have followed him.But Villa are not buying an unknown quantity. Emery has coached Jackson before, knows the qualities he wants to develop and would be replacing a 30-year-old striker with a 25-year-old whose underlying numbers suggest there may still be considerable room to improve.If Jackson joins and Watkins does depart, the Europa League winners will be doing more than just changing their centre-forwards. They will be changing the way their number nine plays.