What we learned about Nordonia’s improving near-term finances despite a projected 2031 shortfall

MetroTreasurer Kyle Kiffer told board members the district is not facing an immediate financial crisis, but projections show tightening budgets as state funding, enrollment and property tax changes remain uncertain.Illustration created with AI toolsBy Michael Johnson, cleveland.comcleveland.com Express DeskCLEVELAND, Ohio — Nordonia Hills City Schools still projects spending will outpace revenue later this decade, including a roughly $4.5 million annual operating shortfall in fiscal 2031.But the district’s latest forecast is stronger than the one it issued six months earlier. The first projected annual deficit has moved from fiscal 2029 to fiscal 2030, and Nordonia expects to retain a positive cash balance throughout the forecast period.These are five takeaways from the original article, which compared Nordonia’s February and August financial forecasts.1. The $4.5 million figure is an annual shortfall, not a negative cash balanceNordonia projects about $67 million in revenue and other financing sources in fiscal 2031, compared with roughly $71.6 million in expenditures and other financing uses.That produces an annual operating deficit of about $4.5 million.But the district does not expect to be $4.5 million in the red overall. It projects ending fiscal 2031 with about $20.6 million in cash after drawing down reserves accumulated in earlier years.2. Nordonia’s near-term forecast improved by nearly $3.2 millionThe district’s February forecast projected annual operating deficits beginning with about $269,000 in fiscal 2029 and growing to $2.74 million in 2030.The August forecast instead projects a roughly $481,000 surplus in 2029 and a smaller $1.98 million deficit in 2030.Through fiscal 2029, higher revenue estimates and lower spending projections improved the cumulative outlook by about $3.19 million. The largest spending reductions from February’s estimates were about $1.53 million in purchased services and $903,000 in salaries.3. Expenses are still projected to grow much faster than revenueThe improvement does not eliminate Nordonia’s longer-term structural imbalance.Revenue and other financing sources are projected to increase only about 1.9%, from roughly $65.8 million in fiscal 2027 to $67 million in 2031.Spending and other financing uses rise about 17%, from approximately $61 million to $71.6 million.Salaries increase from about $31.9 million to $37.3 million, benefits from $13.6 million to $17.3 million and purchased services from $10.9 million to $12.2 million.4. Enrollment is falling while major costs continue risingNordonia expects district-educated enrollment to decline from 3,222 students in fiscal 2024 to 2,698 by fiscal 2031.State aid, however, is projected to remain near $5.8 million annually through 2031, in part because Ohio’s school-funding system includes protections for districts with declining enrollment.Property taxes remain the district’s largest revenue source. Real-estate tax collections are projected to rise from about $41.6 million in fiscal 2026 to $45.7 million in 2027, then increase more slowly through 2031.5. A temporary multimillion-dollar revenue source has endedNordonia received $14.79 million over six years through its MGM Northfield Park settlement.Those payments declined over time and ended with a final $465,575 payment in fiscal 2026.The forecast also assumes no revenue from another new or renewal levy.Nordonia therefore projects its cash balance peaking at about $27.1 million in fiscal 2029 before annual deficits begin reducing reserves. The August forecast gives the district more financial breathing room than February’s did, but it still projects spending increasingly outpacing recurring revenue later in the period.Michael Johnson brings nearly four decades of newspaper experience in reporting, editing, newsroom leadership, page design and digital publishing. He has led daily and weekly newsrooms in Pennsylvania,...