What Wales need to stay in Nations League top tier

Image source, FAWImage caption, Having been unbeaten in Craig Bellamy's first nine games, Wales have only won four of their past 16 matchesByDafydd PritchardBBC Sport Wales in OsloIt can be easy to get tangled up in the complexities of Nations League permutations and, although Wales still have a few uncertainties to iron out, the picture is becoming clearer for Craig Bellamy's side.Following their 3-1 defeat in Norway on Saturday, Wales will finish bottom of Group A4 even if they win their final game against reigning champions Portugal on Tuesday.But that does not mean they will definitely be relegated from the top tier.Instead, they are almost certain to play one of the teams from League B in a relegation play-off in March.However, one thing is for sure: As a result of the Norway loss, Wales will not be among the top seeds for Euro 2028 qualifying."We wanted to be in pot one. That was the drive," said head coach Bellamy after the defeat in Oslo."Some people might say, 'what makes you think you should be in pot one?' But I do."Maybe I'm naïve. I see in big parts of that game we can be in pot one. Let's take the good bits from the game, definitely improve on certain moments of the game and just keep pushing."Figure caption, Highlights: Norway beat Wales in OsloHow certain that Wales will be in a relegation play-off?That is almost guaranteed.A point against Portugal would make sure of it, but even if they lose, Wales will most likely end up in a relegation play-off.Only the two worst-performing sides will be automatically relegated to League B.With one game left, the other bottom teams in League A - Turkey, the Czech Republic and Serbia - all have no points, whereas Wales have three.For them to finish among the worst two, they would need to lose to Portugal, and two of the other teams would need to win their final fixture with a significant swing in goal difference.Wales have a goal difference of -5. Considering Turkey (-10) visit France, Czech Republic (-10) are in Croatia and Serbia (-7) travel to Greece, it would require an unlikely turn of events for Bellamy's men to be automatically relegated.Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Wales have conceded eight goals during this Nations League campaignWhen are the play-offs?The relegation play-offs will be held across two legs at the end of March, with the first leg between March 25-27, and the second between March 28-30.As a League A side, Wales will be seeded and therefore play at home in the second leg.The draw for the play-offs takes place at Uefa's headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland, on Friday, 20 November.The sides that finish in the top two of League A's four groups will also discover the quarter-final draw on the same day.Figure caption, Wales played their part in League A - BellamyWho could Wales face?With one game left to play, it's not yet clear.Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina are currently all in second place in their groups.However, Scotland, Ukraine, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Poland could also be potential opponents.Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Wales have scored three goals in five games during this Nations League campaignWhere does Euro 2028 qualifying come into this?All teams finishing third or higher in League A will be named as top seeds for Euro 2028 qualifying.By missing out, Wales could now be drawn alongside one of Europe's heavyweights in their group.Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal are among the sides already guaranteed pot one seeding for the draw on 6 December in Belfast.England will also be a top seed, although Thomas Tuchel's men will be kept apart from Wales and the other Euro 2028 co-hosts in qualifying regardless.When it comes to reaching the Euros, the 12 group winners and eight best-ranked runners-up qualify directly.For any of the co-hosts who don't make it via that route, there are two automatic spots available. Those will be awarded to the best-ranked between the four nations who haven't qualified directly.If Wales still haven't made it, there is still the back-up option of the play-offs.And given play-off places are based on Nations League rankings, Wales are highly likely to already have that safety net.