What Trump’s envoys have really got planned on surprise Moscow, Kyiv trip

According to Donald Trump, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are preparing to hand Russian President Vladimir Putin a “plan to end the war”. This is not the first time the two men, who the US President has also entrusted to lead negotiations across the Middle East, have met Putin in Russia, nor is it the first time they have discussed ways to end the Russian President’s invasion. While it will be their first visit to Ukraine, Kushner and Witkoff’s presence is raising eyebrows as much as for the timing of the trip as its significance. CIA Director John Ratcliffe made his own, unexpected trip to Moscow just 10 days previous and fighting between Ukraine and Russia has been escalating in recent weeks, leading many to conclude peace talks were unlikely. According to one security expert and former diplomat, Kushner and Witkoff’s plans in Moscow and Kyiv appeared more focused on securing a win for a “desperate” Trump than a genuine effort to end the war. Why now? Trump’s announcement caught many by surprise, with US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine having all but ended following the beginning of the Iran war in late February. Kushner and Witkoff held separate discussions with both sides over the proceeding months, but no significant progress has been made on bringing an end to the conflict. In fact, strikes from both sides have escalated in recent months, as Ukraine seeks to bring the cost of the invasion home to ordinary Russians. Jane Hardy, a former diplomat and security expert with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told The i Paper Trump’s sudden diplomatic push was “unusual”, but in keeping with the President’s playbook as a “master of distraction”. “Obviously things are not going well for him, or for the US, in other parts of the world,” she said. Trump’s sudden diplomatic push is “unusual”, but in keeping with the President’s playbook as a “master of distraction” (Photo: Al Drago / The Washington Post / Bloomberg via Getty) A fresh trade war with Canada, tensions with European leaders and domestic concerns over inflation and energy ahead of the midterm elections have left Trump in search of a win, Hardy suggested, although it remains to be seen whether the latest proposal will sway either side. Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow, which Axios reported included discussions over whether Russian intelligence officials believed they could persuade Putin to pursue diplomacy, may have also influenced the timing of Kushner and Witkoff’s trip. Hardy believes “something Ratcliffe said to Putin” may have shifted the dial, although she acknowledged details of the CIA director’s meetings remained largely unknown. What could Kushner and Witkoff propose? Kushner and Witkoff have presented several different plans to end the war to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Some of those proposals have attracted criticism for appearing to favour Russia, while others have been dismissed by Putin as non-starters because they fail to address what Russian officials call the “root causes” of the conflict. Trump provided no detail on the latest plan when he announced Kushner and Witkoff’s trip, saying only: “They’ve done a great job, and we sent them over to see whether or not we can get something done. And there may be a good chance that we’ll do it”. Ukraine has maintained it is open to an unconditional ceasefire, which could temporarily freeze the conflict along its current frontline, but has consistently rejected any plan involving ceding territory to Russia. The Kremlin, however, has repeatedly demanded Ukraine give up large swathes of territory in the east and for the international community to recognise Russian sovereignty over the region. Putin has repeatedly insisted resolving the “territorial issue” must form a part of any peace agreement. Even if the latest US proposal sees the conflict frozen and Russia allowed to temporarily maintain control of captured territory, Hardy warned “history tells us” such an agreement is unlikely to last. “This is, in a way, the third wave of a multidecade war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, starting with the annexation of Crimea,” she added. Putin has repeatedly insisted resolving the “territorial issue” must form a part of any peace agreement. (Photo: Vyacheslav Prokofiev / Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP) “No one on the Western side or on the Ukraine side would believe a Russian ceasefire would hold.” While the UK and France-led coalition of the willing has proposed sending peacekeepers into Ukraine to help enforce any ceasefire, there has been no indication US officials have discussed this as part of the latest plan. Putin has also in past suggested the presence of international peacekeepers would make contributing countries party to the conflict and, therefore, legitimate targets. Beyond territory, one major area of concern for both Russia and Ukraine is exports of agricultural products and energy. Russia relies on oil and gas exports to fund a significant part of its economy. With Ukrainian drone strikes having caused serious damage to refinement and shipping infrastructure, it is possible the US could seek to incorporate moratoriums on attacking oil and gas in the hopes of making a deal more appealing to Putin. Likewise, a Russian commitment to halt strikes on Ukraine’s agricultural exports could offer Kyiv an important economic lifeline and act as a sweetener to offset concessions to the Kremlin. Notably, allowing Russia and Ukraine to resume energy imports would also help solve another issue for Trump by taking pressure off international energy prices and inflation. Hardy said it would not be a surprise if Kushner and Witkoff offered the Kremlin the prospect of waving some sanctions on Russian oil both to help bring Russia to the negotiating table and to bring prices at the pump down for consumers in the US.