What the far right’s victory in Germany could mean for the war in Ukraine

“Deeply shocked” was how German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described his reaction to last Sunday’s landslide victory by Alternative for Germany – the first time a far-right party had won a state-level election since World War II.Yet with support for right-wing nationalist parties surging elsewhere in Europe – and national elections due in France, Poland, and Italy next year – politicians beyond Germany’s borders were also closely watching the result.Two leaders, above all others, are keeping tabs: Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Why We Wrote This The regional election victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany could have implications far beyond the country’s borders. Politicians across Europe were closely watching the result – especially Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. With its open support for Russia, the AfD’s win has the potential to impact the war in Ukraine. Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has long been openly Russia-friendly, and its triumph was welcomed in Moscow. But Ukraine will be hoping other far-right politicians in Europe – especially Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – will prove reluctant to tilt toward the Kremlin.Europe’s future political direction is a key consideration in Russia’s and Ukraine’s rival strategies for ending the war between them, provoked by Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, on terms they can accept.For Mr. Zelenskyy, financial and military backing from the European Union and NATO countries in Europe has been critical in denying Russia victory, especially since U.S. President Donald Trump’s retreat from direct American support.But Mr. Putin’s calculus has long rested on the assumption that he can outlast the West, that domestic political priorities will increasingly erode Europe’s commitment to make good on its pledge to back Kyiv for “as long as it takes.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is also the leader of the centrist Christian Democratic Union, answers questions about the far-right Alternative for Germany's regional election victory on Sunday, at a news conference in Berlin, Sept. 7, 2026. The potential for far-right parties to encourage that erosion goes beyond their core campaign issues of slashing immigration, and the shifting of priorities toward the interests of voters who feel economically stretched, ignored by “elites,” and left behind.A number of Europe’s far-right parties also harbor misgivings about backing Ukraine.The AfD does not just have misgivings. It wants to end all support for Kyiv. With its strongest voter appeal in the former East Germany, it also favors restoring Germany’s preinvasion economic ties with Russia.With the AfD leading in national opinion polls, at around 28%, the Kremlin did not hide its satisfaction over the election result in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt.Mr. Putin’s economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, hailed it as a “historic win” and said the AfD was on course to “restore Germany and Europe by leading the common-sense approach that migrant-friendly, warmongering, Biden-think EU politicians tried to eradicate.” Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/Kremlin/AP Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, left, meets with U.S. envoy Jared Kushner in Moscow, Sept. 5, 2026. The more encouraging news for Mr. Zelenskyy is that if Chancellor Merz can keep hold of his center-right Christian Democratic Union party, and of his coalition government, he won’t have to face a national election until 2029.As leader of Europe’s top economic power, the chancellor ruled out any policy shift on the Ukraine war as a result of AfD's victory. He pledged not to “budge one millimeter from my fundamental conviction that we must defend our freedom against Russia.”Still, national elections are scheduled for several other major European countries in 2027, and far-right parties have been polling strongly in all of them.France will choose a successor to President Emmanuel Macron in a two-round election next spring. In the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion, Mr. Macron held out hope of a diplomatic resolution with Moscow. But he soon pivoted toward backing Ukraine and has been a key player in sustaining support for Kyiv.Opinion polls suggest that Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally, will win the first round of voting, and could well prevail in the second round and become president.In a bid to make herself more palatable to mainstream voters over the past decade, she has distanced herself from the National Front of her late father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, going so far as to expel him from her party in 2015.She’s been similarly standoffish toward the AfD and has condemned Mr. Putin’s invasion. Michael Kuenne/PRESSCOV/SIPA/AP People take part in a protest march marking Ukraine's Independence Day, in Berlin, Aug. 24, 2026. Yet she forged close ties with Russia before the Ukraine war. And while she has broadly endorsed European backing for Kyiv, her party has suggested that France and other supporters should not provide open-ended help without some form of repayment.In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist, pro-EU party unseated a right-wing government in 2023. Now, Mr. Tusk is facing a test in legislative elections next year from far-right parties opposed to European support for Ukraine.The irony is that Ukraine’s hopes of sustaining broad European support for fighting off Russia’s invasion force might rest with the continent’s senior far-right figure: Ms. Meloni of Italy.She, too, will have to call national legislative elections by the end of next year. Rival politicians, both to her left and further to her right, have voiced skepticism about support for the Ukrainians.But Ms. Meloni – whose government last Friday became Italy’s longest-serving since World War II – has softened the edges of her involvement in pro-Fascist youth politics.While she still takes a hard line on core right-wing issues such as immigration, she has denounced the Russian invasion and has consistently backed providing help for Ukraine to resist it.That’s been one reason that she has carved out an increasingly influential political role within the 27-nation EU.It’s also one reason that Mr. Zelenskyy will be hopeful that, if she holds to that line and secures a further term as prime minister, Europe’s backing will survive the German election shock.