What recent polling suggests will happen in the US midterm elections

As the November midterm elections approach, many people in the US are feeling rather pessimistic about their futures. An Economist/YouGov survey in the US completed on October 12 asked how respondents felt about about their futures compared with ten years ago. Altogether, 23% said they were more optimistic, with 48% saying they were more pessimistic. Another question in the survey, conducted from October 10-12, just over three weeks out from the November 3 election, asked: “Do you feel that things in this country these days are under control or out of control?” Only 19% thought they were under control, while 70% thought the opposite. A third asked about the direction the country is taking. Altogether 27% thought that it is “generally heading in the right direction” while 66% thought it is “off on the wrong track”. Explaining the pessimism There are numerous factors which can explain the pessimism but two stand out: attitudes to the US president, Donald Trump, and the state of the economy under his administration. Respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with various of descriptors of the president. The chart below shows the percentages who agreed with each of them. Percentage of Americans agreeing with descriptors of Donald Trump YouGov/Economist poll, Author provided (no reuse) It is readily apparent that large numbers of Americans really dislike the president – corruption being the most prominent descriptor followed by perceptions that he is dangerous. Only 28% thought he is effective and 23% that he is honest. A second explanation for the pessimism is the state of the US economy, particularly the impact of inflation on the day-to-day lives of citizens. Altogether 34% of respondents thought that the economy and inflation were the most important issues facing the country. When asked about the president’s handling of inflation, 28% of respondents approved while 67% disapproved. It is important to note that Americans were very much focused on domestic issues when responding to questions about the most important issues facing the country. Only 6% of them thought that foreign policy was the most important issue. Voting intentions for the midterms Typically, the incumbent president’s party loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections. In the 2018 midterm elections in Trump’s first term, the Republicans had a net loss of 39 seats in the House of Representatives – but they actually gained two seats in the Senate. So, on the face of things, we would expect the Democrats to gain in the House given Trump’s current unpopularity, while the Senate race remains uncertain. But the federal structure of American politics means that while presidential popularity influences the way people vote in Congressional elections, it is not the only thing that matters. Tip O’Neal, the Democrat speaker of the House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 used to say: “All politics is local.” State politics and issues are important in these elections, allowing members of Congress to distance themselves from the president and focus on local issues. That said, there is evidence that national political issues are growing in importance in Congressional elections over time. Voting intentions for Democrats vs. Republicans in the house elections 2026 ** YouGov/Economist poll, Author provided (no reuse) The second chart shows voting intentions of respondents in the House of Representative elections classified by sex, ethnicity, age and education. The Democrats were ahead by seven percentage points overall, registering 46% in voting intentions compared with 39% for the Republicans. Looking at different demographic groups, the Democrats were ahead or level with the Republicans in all groups except white voters. Also, there were some striking differences between support for the parties. Women, black and Latino voters, the young and voters with college degrees all strongly support the Democrats. In general, this means that the likelihood of the Democrats winning control of the House is very high in these elections. The third chart shows voting intentions in the Senate elections. The demographics of support are quite similar to the House elections except that the gap between the Democrats and Republicans is narrower. Some 45% of respondents intend to vote Democrat, with 40% supporting the Republicans. The Republicans were ahead among whites, in the 45-65 age group, and respondents with no college degrees. Support for Democrats vs. Republicans in the senate elections 2026 YouGov/Economist poll, Author provided (no reuse) Democrat Senators and their independent allies Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Angus King from Maine, currently have 47 seats in the Senate. Therefore, the party needs to win in at least four states to take control of the chamber. If, for example, they won three seats this would give them 50% but their votes could be overridden by the vice-president, J.D. Vance. He is the speaker of the Senate and has a casting vote in the event of a tie. Key senate contests NBC news has suggested likely Democrat wins in North Carolina and in Maine, both of which are currently held by the Republicans. In addition, it classifies Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all currently held by Republicans, as “toss-ups” as far as Democrat wins are concerned. We can look at the winning margins in the previous Senate elections in these states to provide a rough guide to how easy it will be for the Democrats to take them. In the 2020 Senate elections, when Joe Biden beat Donald Trump for the presidency, the Republicans took Iowa with a margin of 6.5 percentage? points over the Democrats. In Texas the margin of victory was 9.5 points and in Alaska 13 points. In the 2022 midterm elections the Republicans beat the Democrats by 6 points in Ohio. Clearly if the Democrats win North Carolina, Maine, Iowa and Ohio they would take control of the Senate. In addition, according to the Forbes newsletter, recent polling shows the Democrats lead by 50% to 43% in Alaska and 51% to 49% in Texas. Depending on the turnout one or both of these traditionally Republican states could be a win for the Democrats. Ultimately control of the Senate will depend on the extent to which Trump’s unpopularity influences these Congressional races.