What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong

Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt to discuss how the midterms are shaping up less than one month out and what to expect from a Democrat-controlled Congress. The Agenda: —GOP redistricting —2028 Democratic candidates —Can Democrats moderate? —A Democratic Congress Show notes: Steve Hayes is CEO and editor of The Dispatch, based in Annapolis, Maryland. Prior to co-founding the company in 2019, he worked at The Weekly Standard for 18 years, covering Washington, politics, and national security. Steve is the author of two New York Times bestsellers. He also worked as a contributor at CNN and Fox News, and currently serves as a political analyst at NBC News. When Steve is not focused on The Dispatch, he’s probably traveling with his family, grilling, or riding his mountain bike. Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief and co-founder of The Dispatch, based in Washington, D.C. Prior to that, enormous lizards roamed the Earth. More immediately prior to that, Jonah spent two decades at National Review, where he was a senior editor, among other things. He is also a bestselling author, longtime columnist for the Los Angeles Times, commentator for CNN, and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. When he is not writing the G-File or hosting The Remnant podcast, he finds real joy in family time, attending to his dogs and cat, and blaming Steve Hayes for various things. Chris Stirewalt is a contributing writer for The Dispatch, the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, co-host of the Ink Stained Wretches podcast, and author of Broken News, a book on media and politics. Michael Warren is politics editor at The Dispatch and is based in Washington, D.C. A former on-air reporter at CNN and a senior writer at The Weekly Standard, he has spent more than 15 years covering lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the White House and the executive branch, the conservative movement, and political campaigns. When Mike is not reporting, writing, editing, and podcasting, he is probably spending time with his wife and three sons. The podcast transcription below was generated using artificial intelligence and may include occasional errors or misspellings. Steve Hayes 0:00 [instrumental music] Welcome to the Dispatch Podcast. I'm your host, Steve Hayes. On today's round table, we take a big picture look at the midterms, which are now less than a month out. Can the Republicans hold onto the Senate? Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire? And are the polls we're seeing reliable? And then for not worth your time, a Taco Bell ultra-marathon? A warning for sensitive listeners, if you're eating while listening, you might wanna pause the podcast until you finish up. I'm joined today by Dispatch Editor-in-Chief, Jonah Goldberg, Politics Editor, Mike Warren, and Politics Editor for NewsNation and contributing writer for The Dispatch, Chris Stirewalt. Let's dive right in. [instrumental music] Chris Stirewalt, I wanna start with you. Two new polls out at CNN this morning. The headline over the news is, "Two deep red states are in play as Democrats eye path to Senate majority." I'm not gonna ask you about the races. I'm gonna ask you about the polls. Chris Stirewalt 1:13 Oh, come on. Steve Hayes 1:14 You are a reader of the polls. You have been doing this for longer than any of us. You've read probably 10 times the number of polls carefully that Jonah, Mike, and I have even skimmed. You know what you're talking about when it comes to polling. When you see a headline like that and you click in and you do read the polls, what's your reaction? How do you read a poll in today's environment? Do you look at those numbers and say, "Take it to the bank. This is exactly how the race is going to turn out"? Or do you say, "We can't trust this stuff. There's historical undercounting of Republicans. I don't know what I can believe"? How do you look at polls? There were five polls that came out this past weekend in the New York Times. There's a CNN poll today. What's your first reaction when you read a poll? Chris Stirewalt 2:03 How are you gonna make me talk about CNN polling with my friend, Jonah Goldberg? That is not, that is- Steve Hayes 2:09 Jonah's not a company man. I mean, he-- Look, he is loyal to CNN. I assume he wants to remain there. He does a good job when he goes on CNN, but he, he's not gonna upbraid you for criticizing a CNN poll or any other poll. Interactive transcripts are available to Premium members. Join to follow along with the audio. Join Now More We Think You’d Like