What Bolsonaro vs. Lula says about democracy in Brazil

Rio de Janeiro | Oct. 05, 2026, 12:04 p.m. ET | 5 min read Brazil’s right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro will face leftist President Luiz Inácio ‌Lula da Silva in a presidential runoff later this month, after he exceeded expectations in Sunday’s vote.Senator Bolsonaro came out on top in the polarizing first round, but didn’t clinch an outright victory, securing 47% of the vote to 45% for the incumbent, known as Lula. Although polls predicted a tight race, most had given Lula a slight edge. Senator Bolsonaro’s lead – buoyed by his far-right Liberal Party’s strong showing in concurrent gubernatorial and legislative elections – speaks to the strength of anti-Lula sentiment in a deeply divisive race in which both front-runners faced high rejection levels. It also underscores a pivotal moment in Brazil’s democracy.“If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election, it is above all [because] a majority rejects what Lula stands for,” says Creomar de Souza, CEO of Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, a Brasília-based consultancy. That is the case of Paula Mourão, a community health worker who donned Brazil’s yellow soccer jersey to cast her vote for Mr. Bolsonaro on Sunday afternoon. “If I told you that I know what his proposals are, I’d be lying,” she said while on her way to a polling station in northern Rio de Janeiro. “I don’t want Lula to win. And the only way of stopping Lula from getting in is by voting for Flávio Bolsonaro.”The senator heralded Brazilians’ desire for change as he celebrated his 56.1 million votes Sunday evening. Lula received 53.8 million – nearly 4 million fewer than in the first round four years ago.The late October runoff ballot might feel familiar – Senator Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula in the second round of the 2022 election. The elder Mr. Bolsonaro is now serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for attempting to cling on to power following that loss. Lucas Landau/APOpposition presidential candidate Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro speaks after casting his ballot in the Oct. 4, 2026, general election. Looking for opportunitySenator Bolsonaro is a career politician who succeeded in simultaneously presenting himself as his father’s heir and as the candidate for renewal. He tapped into voter concern with crime and a cost-of-living crisis to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses during the first round. The number of Brazilians who say the economy is getting worse jumped from 35% in 2023 to 59% in 2026, according to the most recent LAPOP Pulse of Democracy report from Vanderbilt University’s Center for Global Democracy. Lula, who was first elected president in 2002 and has served three nonconsecutive terms, sought to draw attention to scandals dogging the Bolsonaro family. Senator Bolsonaro has documented connections to Rio’s paramilitary mafias and is under investigation for money laundering and corruption over his dealings with a disgraced banker at the center of a multibillion-dollar fraud probe.But the allegations – which Mr. Bolsonaro denies – did not hurt his appeal with voters. And Lula has struggled to shake his own association with past corruption scandals and economic crises involving his Workers’ Party, which have fed into a “very strong” and ideologically entrenched anti-Lula sentiment, says Daniela Costanzo, a political scientist at the Cebrap research institute in São Paulo.For many voters, this view of Lula as corrupt is wrapped up with criticism of his economic policies and of the strong welfare state that the former union leader has come to embody.“People deserve to have opportunities, but opportunities are given by capitalism, not by the government,” says André Andrade, a business owner who was celebrating the first-round results a block from Copacabana Beach.Nearby, Luciane Stumpf, dressed head to toe in Workers’ Party red, says it is precisely Lula’s track record of reducing poverty and fighting inequalities that appeals to her. “I’m angry, I’m sad, and I’m upset,” said the beach kiosk worker as the results started to trickle in, showing that key figures of Lula’s coalition failed to secure Senate seats, while two of Senator Bolsonaro’s brothers and his stepmother won election to Congress.“I believe that things can still be turned around,” Ms. Stumpf says, peering out from under her Lula-branded bucket hat.Lula said as much as he recognized the results on Sunday evening, promising a new campaign ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff. “We are going to convince the Brazilian people that we need to continue our project,” he said. Brian Snyder/ReutersBrazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Workers' Party candidate running for reelection, joins hands with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as he addresses supporters after the country’s electoral authority said Lula will face Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff. Status of democracyAlthough anti-incumbent sentiment is common throughout Latin American elections, historically it is not as strong in Brazil, where the elder Mr. Bolsonaro was the first incumbent since Brazil’s return to democracy to lose reelection in 2022.The presidential hopefuls knocked out in the first round, none of whom secured more than 3% of the vote, say they won’t endorse either front-runner. As the runoff campaign gears up, analysts say what might actually be on the presidential ballot is Brazilian democracy itself.The next president will appoint four of the Supreme Court’s 11 justices, and with ample victories in the Senate, parties aligned with Senator Bolsonaro will be just a few votes short of the majority needed to impeach justices. “One of the most typical ways of eroding democracy is interfering in the Supreme Court,” says Dr. Costanzo. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. Senator Bolsonaro has said that if elected, he will seek an amnesty for his father and the rioters sentenced for their role in the Jan. 8, 2023, attacks on democratic institutions in Brasília. He is also expected to align himself closely with President Donald Trump in the United States, whose administration has been accused of meddling in Brazil’s electoral process.Mr. de Souza, the political analyst, worries about the day after the runoff vote. “Independently of who wins, there is a high risk that we will continue to debate the election result,” he says, acknowledging that this could come from Bolsonaristas with deep-rooted distrust of the election process, or from Lula voters questioning possible foreign interference. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. 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