Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction, odds: Week 5 college football Thursday picks by proven model

This page may contain affiliate links. If you click a link and sign up, make a deposit, place a wager, or make a trade, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its best bets for the Thursday matchup between New Mexico State and Western Kentucky on CBS Sports Network Oct 1, 2026 at 12:32 pm ET • 2 min read Conference USA play begins for most teams in Week 5, and the schedule is kicked off with a Thursday matchup between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3) and the New Mexico State Aggies (1-3) on CBS Sports Network. These teams have matching non-conference records and even both picked up their only win against Mercyhurst, an FCS program, by a similar margin. WKU played the tougher non-conference slate, which featured matchups against Georgia and Indiana, both top-5 teams. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after $10 in trades:Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, N.M. The Aggies are 2.5-point home favorites, with the over/under at 54.5 in the latest New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky odds. Both teams are 2-2 against the spread this season. Before making any New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky, check out the Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky oddsNew Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky spreadNew Mexico State -2.5New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky over/under54.5 pointsNew Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky money line NMSU -131, WKU +109New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky picksSee picks at SportsLineNew Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky streaming Fubo (Try for free) New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:Top New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky predictionsAfter simulating WKU vs. New Mexico State 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Under 57.5 points at betting apps. The line opened at 52.5, but has up five points since then, flipping the value to the Under at a number the model sees as a bit inflated.Against FBS competition, WKU has averaged just 11.3 points per game thus far. New Mexico State, meanwhile, has averaged 18. Those numbers are skewed by level of competition, but looking at last year's matchup between these teams, they combined to score just 51 points. WKU had the top scoring offense in Conference USA last year, but New Mexico State was second to last, so there might not be enough total firepower to reach this rising number. SportsLine's model is projecting 55 points in this one, making the Under the value play. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine. How to make Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State picksIn addition to going Under on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. So who wins New Mexico State vs. WKU, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.Why you should trust SportsLine's modelThe model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites, returning nearly $600 for $100 players. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.