We’re Pretty Sure We Know Who’s Going to Win the House

The Slatest Democrats have probably got this one, but for the sickos, here’s what could go wrong. Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by BardoczPeter/Getty Images Plus and John Lund/iStock/Getty Images Plus. This story is adapted from the Slatest newsletter. You can sign up here to get it in your inbox every day. With the primaries mostly behind us, general-election season is here. We at the Slatest have been covering the midterms for a while, but getting wrapped up in individual races risks overlooking the more important question: Which party will control Congress once the dust has settled? It’s a big topic, so we’re taking it one chamber at a time. Later this week we’ll consider the Senate, but today we’re focusing on the House. OK, let’s start with the obvious: Which party is going to win? I don’t have a crystal ball, but history is instructive. In the modern era, the sitting president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterms. The opposite has happened only a few times: during the depths of the Great Depression, after Republicans overreached by moving to impeach Bill Clinton, and after the Sept. 11 attacks. On average, over the past 92 years of midterms, the party in power has lost 27 seats. Republicans are currently sitting on a single-digit majority. Doesn’t that mean that Democrats are a shoo-in? The odds are in their favor. Republicans are contending with high gas prices (thanks to Donald Trump’s war in Iran), voter discontent over the cost of living (thanks in part to Trump’s tariffs), and a vainglorious but deeply unpopular president. Democrats lead by about 6 points on the generic ballot, which measures which party voters prefer without taking individual candidates into consideration. Republicans are, dare we say, in a bit of disarray. As Politico reported last week, some GOP candidates representing harder-to-win districts don’t want the president to campaign for them this fall. Others, as my colleague Jim Newell explains, are anxious that Trump’s super PAC won’t spend money to help them except on ads that would yoke them to his unpopular record. So what’s the catch? There are a few reasons to think Democrats’ path to a majority may be rocky. Redistricting is one of them. Over the past couple of years, Republicans have broken with long-standing precedent and frenziedly redrawn their states’ congressional maps in a bid to advantage GOP candidates. (Democrats have responded in kind, though it’s worth remembering that the arms race kicked off in earnest when Trump demanded that Texas further gerrymander that state’s maps.) It hasn’t always worked; last week, Missouri’s Supreme Court blocked the state from using a more-GOP-friendly map in November. But as things stand, winning the House will probably be more of an uphill climb for Democrats than it otherwise would’ve been. Got it. What else? Democrats are barreling toward Election Day with some liabilities of their own. Joe Biden’s presidency left a bad taste in most Americans’ mouths, and the party remains broadly unpopular. Many Democratic voters are unhappy with their party’s established leaders, and debates over support for Israel have riven the party’s base. In key Maine, Michigan, and California swing seats, Democrats have gambled on progressive nominees who may prove to be too far left for centrist electorates. So you’re saying Republicans have a chance? To be clear, it would be shocking if Democrats failed to win a House majority. But the margin also matters. A slim majority is harder to corral because a few lawmakers can hold the rest hostage to extract concessions. Unexpected resignations or deaths, a phenomenon both parties have dealt with this year, can become hugely consequential when only a few seats determine House control. Still, politics moves at light speed these days, and a lot could happen before most voters head to the polls. If Trump’s trade war or war in Iran winds down, it could boost GOP House candidates. But given both historical trends and present circumstances, Democrats are clear favorites to retake control. The Senate, as we’ll explore soon, is a much closer call. Tolga Akdoğan OK, that’s enough forecasting for one day. Let’s talk about something closer at hand—like how to spend the rest of your evening. My colleagues recommend: A suggestion for schools: As summer vacation comes to a close, students will likely transition to spending most of their time indoors, looking at screens. But what if they could have more unstructured time outdoors? Natalie Pattillo makes the case that recess is an easy way for students—especially teenagers—to unplug from their devices, reset their minds, and build their relationships. Some self-care advice: Finch, a popular wellness and habit-tracking app, promises to help users achieve their self-care goals with the assistance of a colorful cartoon bird. “It’s Tamagotchi for the burned out and overwhelmed,” writes Sara Jin Li. But it turns out that more screen time is not a great solution to feeling burned out and overwhelmed. Instead, there’s an easier, analog method that can do the trick. An old book to revisit: Octavia Butler fans, rejoice! After being out of print for decades, the author’s third novel, Survivor, has just been rereleased. Slate writer Rebecca Onion spoke with a scholar of Butler’s work about why science-fiction fans should read this book. A new book to explore: Marlon James’ new book, The Disappearers, follows a group of gay men grappling with extreme homophobia in 1980s Jamaica. It has already been called the “novel of the decade”—and it lives up to the hype, according to Slate critic Laura Miller. She writes, “The masterstroke of The Disappearers is that James lands the finish, a feat of generosity, compassion, and, as with the rest of this unforgettable book, unconquerable bravado.” That’s all from us. Thanks for reading!