Weekend betting column: SunSport picks for the World Cup final and 3rd place play-off

IF ARGENTINA wanna know how to beat Spain tomorrow, they better get Stevie Clarke off the beach. Yes, it’s strange but true, the last side to beat reigning European champions Spain in a competitive game were Clarke’s Scotland – 2-0 at Hampden way back in March 2023. Since then Luis de la Fuente’s side have lost once in 46 games, 1-0 to Colombia in a friendly, and not at all in their last 37 outings. So it seems strange thinking about it now, how La Roja went so deeply under the radar at this tournament before breaking cover to sink everyone’s hot favourites France 2-0 with the minimum of fuss in the semi-finals. Sign up for the Arsenal newsletter Thank you! Despite kicking off the World Cup as 5-1 joint-favourites with the French, the Spaniard’s opening 0-0 draw with Cape Verde seemed to put everyone off the scent. But as all World Cup-winning sides tend to do, they’ve got better and better as the competition has gone on. Before dismissing France 2-0 in the last four, Spain sent, who anyone would term ‘top European sides’, Portugal and Belgium both packing. While the Spanish have been going quietly and efficiently about their business, Argentina have made their way through the World Cup like a warring couple making their way through the airport. Extra time to beat Cape Verde, coming back from 2-0 down in the last 11 minutes to leave Egypt somehow beaten 3-2, then a controversial Breel Embolo red card that eventually swung the quarter-final against Switzerland the South Americans’ way in extra time. Before coming from a goal down to send football back home to Gatwick on Wednesday night. It’s been a ride. BET BALLS And ahead of tomorrow night’s European champions v reigning world champions clash in the Met Life stadium in New Jersey, the bookies still give ‘em just an underdogs chance. Argentina are a best-priced 13-5 with Paddy Power, Unibet and bet365 to become just the third side to win back-to-back World Cups, following Italy in 1934 and 1938, and Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Spain are a best-priced 13-10 with Ladbrokes and Coral, with the draw a 21-10 shot with BetVictor. And Coral’s Dave Stevens is saying take the price on Lamine Yamal and co. He said: “Spain gave us the performance of the tournament so far in their semi-final win over France. “I was among the many who thought the French were virtually certain to make the final, but the Spanish frankly never looked in any danger of not winning. “A repeat performance from Spain in the final will make them very hard to beat. They got the job done without the need for extra-time, they’ve had an extra day’s rest, so are worthy favourites to win a second World Cup. “Argentina can’t be dismissed as they have shown an incredible will to win to get this far, but I’ll take Spain to win without extra time.” How’s it gonna happen? Well one way would be Spain to win to nil. They’ve kept clean sheets in 13 of 17 games, while Argentina have gone five without keeping a clean sheet. That would be a best-priced 14-5 with BetVictor. But this is Messi so the selection is Spain win and BTTS at very healthy 9-2 with William Hill. That might just cheer me up. SunSport’s Kevin Dunne was on the money again last weekend, tipping BTTS in the England-Norway game at 7-10 and England to win and BTTS at 13-5. Our football tipster also put up England to score more than 11.5 goals at the tournament (they scored 14) at even money and to go out in the semi-finals at 11-2. NO, he’s not my favourite player any more either. But having come to life and set up both goals in the comeback win against England on Wednesday night, it’s getting harder and harder to argue that Lionel Messi is not the best player of all time. The 5ft 7in Argentinian is 1-8 to win the Golden Ball for the World Cup’s best player… at 39. Most people start struggling to get out of bed at that age. He’s also 11-10 favourite to win the Golden Boot for most goals and is currently tied on eight with France’s 6-4 Kylian Mbappe. Even so, Sky Bet are taking a serious chance that he can’t do it again – and are going even money Messi scores or assists tomorrow night, including extra-time! If you recall, he can also take free-kicks – and bet365 go 11-2 he scores from outside the box. The next Messi, Yamine Yamal, who has inherited his mantle at Barcelona, is also a very attractive 29-10 with Sporting Index to get one or more assists. Favourites Spain also get an attractive 15-2 quote from William Hill to win both halves, while if you want to be celebrating at half-time, there’s Betway’s 9-2 both sides score in the opening 45 (or so) minutes. Goodwinners‘ Enclosure IT’S BEEN a real game of two halves here at BetGoodwin Towers this World Cup. We were all smiling until Wednesday’s semi-final before England went crashing out. Still, France’s exit to Spain the night before was a big result for us, with Kylian Mbappe and co kicking off a shade under 2-1 to win the whole thing, never mind just to take care of Spain. And La Roja were also responsible for the biggest betting shock of the tournament – when they got held 0-0 by Cape Verde in their opening group game, before anyone knew anything about the lads from the mid-Atlantic. That was without doubt the best result for the book all tournament. On the payout front, the weekend that Erling Haaland, Mbappé and Lionel Messi all scored anytime was probably our heaviest defeat as our customers piled into that Treble at 8-1. Last weekend wasn’t too bad either as we soaked up a torrent of in-play bets when England went behind to Norway in their quarter-final. The punters kept the faith, piling into Thomas Tuchel’s side at 9-4 in 90 minutes but had to be content with a draw and an extra-time win. Moving on to tomorrow’s final it really does promise to be a cracker. We’ve priced Spain up as solid favourites to win it at 13-10, with England’s conquerors Argentina the underdogs at 5-2. We’re pricing the draw up at 2-1, suggesting extra time could well be on the cards, so we’re leaning that way in terms of predicting the result. Another position worth considering, given Argentina’s combative style, is the 7-2 for a sending off. That could well prove to be a card worth holding. Our standout price boost on the final is Spain to win to nil at 11-4. Their defence has been rock solid, only one goal conceded in the whole tournament…but can they keep Messi quiet? Overall, Spain lifting the trophy would suit the book best, with Argentina our biggest outright liability. That Spanish victory over France mentioned earlier meant we dodged a bit of a bullet – as France v Argentina had attracted some eye-catching bets in our Name the Finalists market before the tournament at a hefty 33-1. It may be football’s forgotten fixture, but there’s still value to be found in today’s third-place play-off. France are slight favourites at just under Evens, with England trading at 11-4. BTTS at 1-2, reflects expectations of an open, end-to-end affair. England v France THIS scrap for second and third loser is likely to be contested by the lesser-raced members of these respective squads. England lost the last one of these they played in, 2-1 to Italy in 1990 after David Platt had levelled for Bobby Robson’s side. Not surprisingly, the bookies make long-time tournament favourites France the jollies here at a shade under even money. Likely French starter Ryan Cherki is the anytime scorer tip, at 3-1 with Unibet. FORECAST: 1-2 Top Tips The Banker France to beat England, BTTS and Spain to beat Argentina BTTS. Double pays 15-1 with William Hill Get a 10% bonus on all winning accas – 18+ T&Cs apply Remember to gamble responsibly A responsible gambler is someone who: Establishes time and monetary limits before playing Only gambles with money they can afford to lose Never chase their losses Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressed Gamcare – gamcare.org.uk GambleAware – GambleAware.org Read our guide on responsible gambling practices. 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