‘We won’t win if we don’t do it’: Labour MPs ready to back new benefits cuts

As Andy Burnham nears the end of his second week in No 10, the new Prime Minister has reasons to be cheerful. After languishing behind Reform UK in the polls for more than 15 months, Labour has finally wrested Nigel Farage’s lead away from him, with a dramatic BMG poll for The i Paper putting Burnham’s party 5 points in front. Most Labour MPs are feeling chipper, with many finally beginning summer holidays which were delayed due to the timing of Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street. Shorts However, while the mood is buoyant, there is a recognition that a series of difficult decisions will soon have to be confronted. High on the list is welfare reform – the issue which arguably fatally wounded Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership when Labour backbenchers rebelled against his benefit cuts last summer. Pegged back in the polls, Reform insiders console themselves with the idea that welfare will once again hole Labour below the waterline. A senior Reform source said: “There will be problems in the run-up to the next Budget. Quite clearly [Chancellor] John Healey wants to spend more money on defence. The only realistic way that you can tackle that is by reducing the benefits bill, and I don’t think [Burnham] will get the backing from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) for that.” That pessimistic assessment is not shared by Labour MPs themselves, who are increasingly confident that the PLP is finally ready to vote for reforms. ‘We’re in a different time’ One MP who signed the “reasoned amendment” which ended up sinking the cuts last year said: “We’re in a different time. The need to increase defence spending is obvious to everybody. There’s a stronger sense now amongst the PLP that we know that it’s electorally popular for us to grasp this issue, and we probably won’t win an election if we don’t. “I imagine for all of those reasons, he will get stuff through.” In a sign of the changed mood, only a couple of Labour leftwingers have so far been willing to go on the record to warn Burnham against “punitive” cuts. Other stalwarts of the left are either keeping their counsel or have cautiously welcomed the tone Burnham has struck on welfare. The Prime Minister has said that the country needs to “get really serious” in reducing the welfare bill and that he wants to “increase the conditions required to receive benefits”. But he has promised that in return he will enhance support to help people into work and there will be no “crude cuts”. Rachael Maskell, the leftwing MP for York Central, told The i Paper that she supported the “vast majority of what is being said” but that “conditionality” also had to apply to public agencies to ensure “everyone has the support they need to be in employment or training”. The Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden and the Government’s youth joblessness tsar Alan Milburn are widely praised for laying the groundwork for reform with MPs. A minister said: “Pat’s been doing a lot of PLP engagement on this behind the scenes for months.” The minister said that MPs were always ready to support reform but “it was just so badly handled previously”. “All people wanted was to be listened to”, they argued. Their assessment is shared by backbenchers, who claim that last summer they were “patronised”, “talked down to” and presented with a fait accompli which was all about allowing the then chancellor Rachel Reeves to cut costs. Labour left brought back into the fold As part of his efforts to mend fences with the Labour left, Burnham has appointed three members of the Socialist Campaign Group caucus as parliamentary private secretaries (PPSs) – the unpaid role which is seen as the first rung on the ministerial ladder. He has also reinstated the whip for Diane Abbott, the left-wing veteran who was suspended over an antisemitism row. Karl Turner – a vocal Starmer critic who was suspended in March – is expected to follow Abbott back into the Labour fold. However, the PLP is not yet a nest of singing birds, with many MPs who were loyal to Starmer infuriated by Burnham’s wooing of the left. The appointment of Socialist Campaign Group member Mary Kelly Foy as a PPS has caused particular indignation, given she voted to refer Starmer to a parliamentary investigation in April over comments he had made about the appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. One Starmer loyalist said: “Promoting people who a few weeks earlier voted to refer their own prime minister to the Privileges Committee, I find completely galling. “Why should I show the same respect and loyalty to [Burnham] when he’s clearly showing a preference to MPs that don’t believe we’re a party? “I think that’s a really serious lack of judgment that speaks volumes about his integrity and his character. On a personal level I’m furious with him, I dislike him, I regret that I nominated him [as Labour leader].” The MP said that the appointment of Anneliese Midgley as Chief Whip was also a mistake. “We’ve been given a whip who has been a troublemaker and a plotter,” they said. While welfare is no longer seen as the beartrap it once was, there are lingering concerns about Burnham’s mandate for his wider agenda, as well as how he will fund pledges like increasing defence spending and overhauling social care. The Starmer loyalist said: “I think there’s fiscal trouble ahead. “Healey has to now provide the defence spending that he quit over or it increasingly looks like he was part of an elaborate plot to undermine Keir Starmer. And he’s got to deliver the goods in a context where Andy Burnham has been making fiscal promises left, right and centre.” The new Chancellor will deliver his first Budget on 28 October, just under a month earlier than Reeves’s Budget last year. Burnham is expected to face pressure to hold a new King’s Speech in the autumn. A senior Whitehall source said that much of what he has so far announced signalled a departure from Starmer’s previous agenda. “The question is what legislation will be needed to make the changes he wants and whether an entire new King’s Speech will be required ahead of the Budget to set out the new Government’s priorities,” they said. Speculation about an early election has ramped up since Burnham announced on Wednesday that he wanted to end decades of inaction on social care reform, with the Prime Minister saying “difficult decisions” are needed on funding. This was interpreted as a strong hint that tax rises would be on the cards. A senior Labour figure said: “Without a mandate for the kind of tax rises and cuts that will be required to fund a new national care service, his plans won’t get off the starting blocks.” The source said they thought the “populist measures” of Burnham’s first week – such as cutting bus fares and removing VAT from electricity bills – were designed to “give himself the kind of bounce he needs ahead of calling a general election”. “He can then use the fact that he needs a mandate to fix all these difficult issues – like social care and defence spending – as an excuse to call one.” However, others don’t see the blitz of announcements as a short run-up to a snap election. A minister said that Burnham is simply going out and selling an agenda in a way that Starmer never appeared capable of doing. “The country needs a bit of good vibes,” they said. “This is just what it looks like when someone fronts up.”