We visited five of America's key midterm bellwethers. This is what they predict for November 3

'The Republican Party has basically sold their soul to the devil,' declared truck driver Greg Florence.Formerly a Republican, Florence, 65, chose to cast his vote for Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton in Sedgwick County, Kansas.Diesel is 'freaking ridiculously high,' and there's one person to blame, he fumed.Donald Trump.Nearly 700 miles south in Jefferson County, Texas, that explanation for soaring fuel prices did not fly with Karan Berman, 63, an administrator.'Our gas fluctuates, Trump's going to take care of that,' she said emphatically. 'I'm 100 percent convinced we're going to come out the other side smelling like a rose.'And, for good measure, the Democratic Senate candidate in her state, James Talarico, was a 'little weirdo,' she said.Florence and Berman are just two of the more than 100 million people likely to cast ballots in this year's midterm elections. With nearly all reputable experts forecasting that the House will be captured by the Democrats, the focus is on control of the Senate, which will be decided by a handful states. And within each state sit crucial bellwether counties. The Daily Mail visited five of them; Sedgwick County, Kansas; Jefferson County, Texas; Macomb County, Michigan; Montgomery County, Ohio and Waldo County, Maine. For good measure, the Democratic Senate candidate in her state, James Talarico, was a 'little weirdo,' said Karan Berman, 63, an administratorIn conversations with dozens of voters, several things became abundantly clear.First, while Trump's name is not on the ballot, it might as well be. Voters in these counties are largely treating these races as a referendum on his leadership.Second, Republican candidates in the toss-up Senate races are walking a political tightrope. They must avoid alienating independent voters by showing too much fealty to Trump, particularly over the Iran war, while also drafting him to maximize MAGA turnout.And lastly, both sides are fighting an enthusiasm war. Democratic voters are riding high on polls showing them competitive in unexpected places but Republicans believe the numbers are wrong and that there is a hidden vote that will speak out loudly on November 3, as it has for Trump in the past. The Lone Star State Jefferson County, Texas is perhaps the best place to see which way the wind is blowing in the state. It is the only 'pivot county' in Texas - one of the 206 US counties, out of more than 3,000, that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then Trump in 2016.In 2018, it backed Democrat Beto O'Rourke in his unsuccessful Senate run against Ted Cruz. But then, it went for Trump in 2020 and 2024.Outside the Jefferson County courthouse Patsy Foret, 73, a retired schoolteacher, handed out materials for local Democratic judicial candidate John Stevens, who is her neighbor.But she is a Republican who supports Trump and voted for Senate candidate and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Unlike her neighbor John Stevens, Talarico had not persuaded her to switch her vote, mainly due to his previous statements on transgender issues.'I don't understand why he said there's six genders. According to the Bible, there's only two. You can't walk that back,' she said.Foret was also under the impression - a myth perpetuated by Trump at a Texas rally - that Talarico doesn't, or hadn't in the past, eaten meat.'He was vegetarian, he said, or whatever they call it, now he eats meat,' she said. Talarico has never been a vegetarian, nor a vegan, his campaign has stated.As the polls opened for early voting in Jefferson County, the Rogers Park Community Center buzzed with lines out of the building.The Daily Mail found about an even number of Republicans and Democrats heading in, with not one Republican saying they planned to cross party lines for Talarico. One independent said they would vote for him.Democrats, however, claimed Republicans were shifting – in secret. 'In this county, it is very unlikely that a Republican will publicly admit they are supporting Talarico,' said Shawn Webb, a real estate company owner in her 40s.'It is happening, I can tell you that for sure. It's kind of a smaller tight-knit community here, they want to remain anonymous for fear of backlash, but it's happening.'Some Republicans had been motivated to vote early, not by enthusiasm for Paxton, but out of 'fear' of what they believe Talarico represents.'Paxton is not my favorite Republican but James Talarico scares me to death. I don't want somebody like him in office, any office,' said Jim Gentry, 84. Others said Talarico was a 'socialist' or 'communist,' and that he was trying to 'steal' Republican votes by appealing to Christians.America's HeartlandIn Kansas, the prospect of a Democrat winning a Senate seat (it hasn't happened since 1932) has actually energized supporters of both parties.Trump won here in a landslide in 2016, 2020 and 2024, but his approval rating in the state is down to 40 percent.Money is pouring into this race, with nearly $60 million spent so far, and the negative advertising is plumbing the political depths.Republicans are accusing the Democrat, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton, of 'protecting a pedophile,' over a church abuse scandal 20 years ago. Democrats, for their part, are running an ad accusing Republican incumbent Roger Marshall of 'protecting child abusers and rapists' because he voted against releasing the Epstein Files.The most crucial factor in the Kansas election may be whether MAGA voters, who turned out for Trump in presidential elections, get out to the polls for Marshall.Republicans need to run up the score in rural West Kansas as Democrats are expected to do so in the suburbs of Kansas City in the east.The south-central area of the state, purple Sedgwick County, which includes the 400,000-strong city of Wichita, is expected to be key. 'This is our chance to get rid of the corruption and, certainly, send a message to the White House - that we don't like him (Trump,)' said lifelong Democrat Mike Sullivan, 66, a bookseller.'We don't use Donald Trump's name around our house. He's just 'that man,' you know, that man started a war we didn't need to start. He is morally reprehensible, too.'The Daily Mail spoke to several early voters who had been Republicans and were switching to Democrat.Jeff Mohr, 65, a retired accountant, said he had voted Republican most of his life, but he was going Democrat this time around.'Mostly, it's Trump's demeanor,' he said. 'And the Republicans won't stand their ground. I want checks from Congress on the Defense Secretary and DHS.'Lynn Ferguson, 62, a registered Republican who works in a quilt shop, said she was now 'leaning Democrat' because Marshall backed Trump over the January 6 riot.However, when Trump arrived for a rally at the Heartland Credit Union Arena in Wichita on October 19, the crowd was enormous, a clear sign of Republican enthusiasm.Michael Green, 66, dressed head to toe in stars and stripes, was in line eight hours early.'I would like to think the silent majority, in this case, is a conservative Republican, will win this for Roger Marshall,' he said.But in the final days a curious decision came out of the White House: It was scrapping Trump's final rally in Salina, Kansas on Saturday. The President will reportedly shifting to holding virtual rallies in multiple states on the same day.Motor City showdown In Macomb County, Michigan, the battle between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers is also on a knife edge.The county, which includes blue collar suburbs of Detroit and is famously the birthplace of 'Reagan Democrats, voted twice for Barack Obama, but Trump flipped it in 2016, won again in 2020, and by 13 points in 2024.Voters told the Daily Mail this election is going to be close.'I'm stuck, and I know I have very, very little time before I have to go [and vote],' said Stacy Perry, a local restaurant owner. 'Everything has tripled [in price].'Jeff Borja, a retired history teacher, and an Independent, said: 'I've voted Red, I've voted Blue. I vote policy and I vote who's going to impact me in a positive way.' Supporters of Abdul El-Sayed before a rally in late October He said of Rogers that he hadn't 'seen him here in Michigan [in] a long, long, long time, and now he's here.' But El-Sayed was appealing to a lot of people, he said. 'I think he's speaking about things that really impact people's situations... I think he's talking people first.'Borja said he had voted for Trump in 2016 but had been 'disappointed,' by the President's tariff policy and particularly by January 6, which was 'embarrassing.' 'We learned a long time ago that the only people that suffer from tariffs are the citizens of this country that are imposing the tariffs,' he said.Watch Macomb County as a test of whether Trump's blue-collar coalition turns out when he isn't on the ballot.The Buckeye State Polls show Ohio Democrats on the cusp of wins in both the US Senate race and campaign for governor, which would make for a head-snapping reversal of decade-long electoral trend toward Trump.In Montgomery County, which includes the manufacturing city of Dayton, it was the economy stupid. The county narrowly voted for Barrack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then swung for Trump in 2016 by less than a point. It then went for Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024 but by only 0.5 percent over Trump. It's a true swing area - competitive for both parties - and is one to keep an eye on this year. Voters here told the Daily Mail that they too are impacted by the high cost of living. 'I'm a factory worker and been working factory for 30 something years,' said Darnell. 'The cost of living right now, the gas prices, I mean, all the prices are just too high. I don't care for JD Vance. I don't care for Donald Trump.'Another man called Kyle added: 'Cost of groceries. Cost of gas. Cost of everything. It's bad.' Voters in Ohio told the Daily Mail that they are turned off by the high cost of livingVacationland In Waldo County, Maine, former McDonald's worker Kevin, an independent, voted for Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson, but said he had supported Republicans previously.'That was in the past when he [Trump] wasn't doing what he's doing, you know, insulting everybody, and I don't like that.'Another voter, Tim, said he wasn't enthused by Jackson or his opponent Senator Susan Collins.'I don't like either one of them,' he said. 'My number one issue is the prices of everything. It's gone ridiculous. Electricity is through the roof. I'm not a big fan of Susan Collins. She's a liar. I guess all politicians are anyway. Susan Collins faces a tough re-election battle against Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine'But the Democrats, we can't have that. we're going to be a bunch of communists before it's all over. I don't trust any of them. I'm gonna go with Collins only because we don't have enough choice.'Collins will need Biden voters to survive another cycle. And those voters could come from Waldo County. The county backed Hillary Clinton over Trump by just 62 votes in 2016. And while voters in the area backed Biden in 2020 - they still handed Collins, a Republican, an 11-point re-election victory that year.'Everything's just more expensive,' James Cox, 38, stated plainly to the Daily Mail. 'Daily life is just like twice the cost as it was just four or five months ago.' That is the crack in the Republican wall. The price of a war, paid at the pump.And the voters in these bellwether counties will determine on Tuesday whether they've had enough.