We Finally Found Out What It Would Take for Republicans to Abandon Donald Trump

The Slatest Republicans’ desperation is palpable as Trump’s favorability craters, and the polling looks increasingly grim for the GOP. Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Taalvi/Getty Images Plus and Finn Gomez/Getty Images. This story is adapted from the Slatest newsletter. You can sign up here to get it in your inbox every day. For more than a decade, Democrats in Congress have wondered what, if anything, would convince their Republican colleagues to drop Donald Trump. Despite private misgivings, GOP elected officials held their noses even as the president insulted veterans, bragged about assaulting women, trafficked in racism, abused his office, and tried to overturn a free and fair election. So far, their loyalty—measured purely by expediency—has been worth it. Despite his many flaws, Trump twice won his party unified control of Washington. But if winning elections is Republicans’ excuse for forgiving Trump, losing them appears to be the line that cannot be crossed. Case in point: the 2026 midterms. As the GOP limps toward November with an unpopular, term-limited president at the helm, candidates in tough races—including several who previously supported Trump without reservation—are starting to highlight their differences with him. It’s both a sign of desperation and a strategic move that could break a Democratic wave. Which Republicans are shying away from Trump? As you might expect, several are in closely divided states where moderation and independence can pay dividends. One is former Rep. Mike Rogers, who’s running for Senate in Michigan and blames Trump’s Iran war for squeezing voters’ pocketbooks. “The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” he said yesterday. In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson has called for an immediate end to the war and avoided campaigning with Vice President J.D. Vance. And last week, two other vulnerable Iowans, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, joined the handful of House Republicans who have voted to halt the fighting. So are Republicans mostly jumping ship over Iran? Not exclusively. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who’s running for Wisconsin governor, recently distanced himself from Trump’s effort to rename Lake Ontario, criticized him for lowering tariffs on beef imports, and flatly affirmed that “Joe Biden won” the 2020 election. Ohio Sen. Jon Husted, who faces a stiff challenge from Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown, told the Wall Street Journal that he doesn’t share Trump’s view that Americans who oppose A.I. data centers “want to end up being backwards and poor.” Overall, Republican candidates now talk about the president and his MAGA movement less often than they did earlier this year, a Washington Post survey found. OK, but Republicans have groused about Trump before without doing much else. Why should I take these breaks more seriously? In some cases, the candidates are literally broadcasting them. Rogers made his comments about Iran in a campaign video. Others are distancing themselves on issues that used to be solidly in the president’s wheelhouse. Last week, Florida Rep. María Elvira Salazar said in an ad that Trump’s approach to immigration enforcement has “gone too far.” Even Republicans who should be campaigning on safe ground are looking nervous. On Tuesday, the Miami Herald reported that Rep. Byron Donalds, who’s running for governor in solidly red Florida, had scoured prominent Trump references from his campaign website. Other defectors can’t even point to political expedience. Sen. John Curtis of Utah isn’t up for reelection until 2030. But on Tuesday he said the Senate should investigate whether Donald Trump Jr. is trading on his father’s name following revelations that a Russian oligarch helped pay for his wedding. But isn’t distancing from an unpopular president pretty normal? Similar things have happened to Democratic presidents who found themselves underwater come midterm season. In 2010, which famously turned into a shellacking for Barack Obama, many Democratic candidates shied away from his agenda. Biden got a similar treatment in 2022. But what makes these defections notable is that Republicans are doing it to Trump, who is infamously thin-skinned and treats political tactics like personal slights. How’s Trump responding? Mostly with denial. “President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party,” a White House spokesperson told Politico this week, despite polls showing even GOP voters souring on his handling of Iran, inflation, and other issues. The president, whose approval ratings have hit all-time lows in some surveys, has also tried deflection. “They’re not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans,” he said of voters last month. Some Republicans who have offered Trump constructive criticism claim he’s listening. On Sunday, Salazar recalled a pleasant conversation she had with the president after warning that Hispanic voters “feel betrayed” by his immigration agenda. “He was a gentleman, very courteous, very receptive,” Salazar said. We’ll see if that lasts. Obvious question: Will this actually work? Distancing from an unpopular president helped some Democratic midterm candidates win in red and purple states during the Obama and Biden years. Republicans, meanwhile, whiffed several winnable races in 2018 and 2022 because their candidates hewed too closely to Trump, proof that not breaking from a floundering commander in chief can cost seats (even if Trump later helped Republicans retake power). On the other hand, the fervor of Trump’s base makes crossing him risky, and voters rarely reward Johnny-come-latelys. Earlier this year, Rogers was extolling the president’s Iran war as “a mission for safety and justice” and downplaying Michiganders’ anger over gas prices. Hinson has repeatedly voted against House resolutions that would’ve ended the war, including last week. Tiffany tried to help Trump reverse Biden’s 2020 victory. Throwing the president under the bus is one thing. But for Republicans belatedly trying to backpedal, the bigger problem may be that they were for Trump before they were against him. Tolga Akdoğan In honor of Slate’s 30th anniversary, my colleagues have been revisiting some of their favorite stories from over the years. For your evening entertainment, here are a few of them. For the perfectionists: Back in 2011, Farhad Manjoo argued that “you should never, ever use two spaces after a period.” His typographical cri de coeur has entered the annals of classic Slate pitches. For the sci-fi fans: Did you know that Slate used to publish speculative fiction? Dive into this short story about humans’ first contact with an alien who’s been corrupted by some very modern vices. For the romantics: Emily Yoffe’s essay “My Husband’s Other Wife” is a poignant ode to her husband’s first wife, who died of breast cancer tragically young. Political Gabfest host Emily Bazelon praised the essay’s unflinching candor in exploring her relationship, noting that “it’s the honesty that makes me cry.” For the detectives: There was a period of time when you could not escape “Baby Shark.” The kids’ song became a worldwide hit in 2019—but that wasn’t the first time this earworm went viral. Willa Paskin investigated the multidecade rise of “Baby Shark” in a great episode of Decoder Ring. If you’re a true Slate fanatic, head over to our special archival homepage for even more blasts from the past.