War, tariffs, Israel: How Trump’s foreign policy is influencing the midterms

As the midterms approach, the Iran war is challenging the adage that foreign policy is only a secondary thought as voters weigh the factors influencing their decisions.In most elections, a slogan that former President Bill Clinton often used – “It’s the economy, stupid” – reigns supreme in voters’ priorities. Surveys show that this midterm election is no different.But this year, the unique way the Iran war is affecting the economy and voters’ personal finances – from the cost of filling the gas tank and grocery cart to farmers’ access to fertilizers – means that international events and issues are having an outsize impact on electoral choices. “It’s true that foreign policy is traditionally well down the list of what’s motivating voters, but these midterms are different,” says Dina Smeltz, managing director of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.“Uncharacteristically, international issues are taking more of a front-of-mind position with voters as they consider how they’ve been hit by high energy costs,” she adds. “People are making the connection between a foreign policy issue and their personal financial well-being more than at any time I’ve seen in the last 15 years.”The council’s surveys are finding, moreover, that some voters are looking beyond economics to factors like “how our foreign policy is affecting our international relations and our reputation,” she says. Ted Shaffrey/APA sticker placed on a gas pump depicts President Donald Trump and reads, "I did that!" next to gasoline and diesel prices at a gas station in Newtown, Pennsylvania, Sept. 9, 2026. To be sure, several recent surveys, including from the Chicago Council, still show the economy is the unchallenged top priority for voters, with “foreign policy” falling well down the list. In a recent Pew Research Center poll, for example, 29% of registered voters said the economy was their top issue heading into the midterms, while only 4% said it was foreign policy. But those results mask how voters this year are factoring foreign policy issues into their focus on the economy, some experts say.“Foreign policy rarely decides elections – midterms or otherwise – but it can play a role when there are pronounced international problems, and that is certainly the case this year with the Iran war,” says Joshua Shifrinson, a professor of security studies at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy.“It’s especially true when voters see the direct connection between those international issues and their pocketbook,” he adds, “and people are definitely making that connection this year.”Foreign policy is playing a bigger-than-usual role in this year’s midterms for two reasons, Professor Shifrinson says. “A: because of President Trump’s campaign promise not to start any new wars,” he says, “and B: because the war in Iran that he started, initially with Israel, is raising everyone’s cost of living, from the gas people need to drive to work to the milk they buy to put on the table.”A range of foreign policy issues are on midterm voters’ minds this year.The Iran warThe overwhelming majority of voters say the Iran war has been “bad” for the United States on a number of levels, according to a survey released Thursday by the Chicago Council. The poll found that 86% of adults consider the war bad for the cost of living. Not far behind, 72% said the war has been bad for America’s international reputation, with 65% considering the war bad for U.S. national security. Evan Vucci/AP/FilePresident Donald Trump (right) listens during a news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the State Dining Room of the White House, Sept. 29, 2025, in Washington. As for the war’s impact on the cost of living, even 76% of Republicans polled say the war has been “bad.” On a positive note for President Trump, more than three-quarters of those surveyed say the war has “degraded Iran’s position in the Middle East.”TariffsWhile the Iran war is the top foreign-policy negative for voters, tariffs are not far behind. The Chicago Council survey found that 71% consider the tariffs bad for the economy, with 81% saying the tariffs are bad for their cost of living. Some election analysts say that this year, one need look no farther than farm states such as Iowa and Kansas, both reliably Republican, where surprisingly competitive Senate races are underscoring the direct link between tariffs and voters’ intentions.On a positive note for President Trump, about half of Republicans say the tariffs have been good for the U.S. economy as a whole, with two-thirds saying tariffs will eventually be good for job creation.ImmigrationWhile not a top voter motivation, immigration is one foreign policy-related issue that splits Republicans and Democrats. Overall, a majority of Americans say Mr. Trump’s mass deportation policies have gone too far, but Democrats are far more likely to take that view than Republicans.The Chicago Council survey found that immigration has slipped as a major concern for voters since 2024, reflecting broad satisfaction with President Trump’s border policies. On the other hand, the implementation of the mass deportation policy is especially poorly viewed among Hispanic voters, who had shifted to Republicans and President Trump in historic numbers in 2024. Jehad Alshrafi/APTents sheltering displaced Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip are seen amid war-damaged buildings in Gaza City, Sept. 26, 2026. IsraelFor the first time, the Chicago Council survey found evidence of significant tensions within the Democratic Party over Israel, with large numbers of young voters saying Israel’s war in Gaza is a top motivator for getting to the midterm polls. Republicans, too, face internal splits over Israel, though much less pronounced, with “no new wars” MAGA Republicans critical of President Trump’s close relations with Israel.The Chicago Council survey found that 56% of Americans support reducing or ending military aid to Israel, compared with 24% who took that view in 2014.ChinaVoters overall approve of President Trump’s approach to China, finding his cooperative relations preferable to the Biden administration’s confrontational policies. This year, 57% of Americans say the United States should seek to work cooperatively with China and not try to limit it, compared with 40% who took that view just two years ago. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. Of course, no one is voting based on a perception of U.S.-China relations, notes Dr. Shifrinson of the University of Maryland. But he says a sense that President Trump is doing some things right in the world can play a role in influencing voters’ choices on election day.“Americans see relative stability in relations with Russia and China, they see that things have simmered down with those two countries,” he says, “and for the most part, people like that.” ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? 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