Waist size is the ‘best indicator’ for risk of death past middle-age, says study – what YOUR measurement means

THE size of your waist may actually be a better predictor of death than your BMI, a study has suggested. People who have a healthy body mass index (BMI) but a fat tummy may actually have a higher risk of death once they pass middle age. The size of your waist may actually be a better predictor of death than your BMI, a study has suggested Credit: Getty On the other hand, people with a higher BMI appear to have a lower risk of early death, according to scientists. These findings were made by scientists from the University of Rhode Island, US, after an analysis of data from 6,095 adults in the US aged 65 and over who were followed for a 13-year period – from 2011 to 2024. Sign up for the Health newsletter Thank you! Writing in the Journal of the American Geriatric Society, researchers said that for men with a larger waist size – 40 inches or more – and women with a 35 inch waist, their risk of dying early rose by almost a quarter (24 per cent). But for older men who had a normal BMI but a larger waist circumference – essentially the amount of fat around their belly – their risk of dying rose to 33 per cent. For overweight men and men with a BMI of between 30 and just under 40, there was a 46 per cent and 51 per cent lower risk of dying young, respectively. This risk remained about the same for men with this BMI even when they had a larger waist size. The study observed that when BMI and waist circumference were evaluated together, being overweight – and thus having a higher BMI – was associated with a lower risk of death. In men, this pattern was observed regardless of waist size. Most read in Health Interestingly, researchers observed that being underweight, regardless of your waist size, was associated with a higher risk of death in both men and women. Similarly, those who had a normal BMI but a larger waist circumference also had a higher risk of death – again for both men and women. Reacting to these findings, Professor Garron Dodd, Head of the Metabolic Neuroscience Laboratory at The University of Melbourne, said the study showed that “men who were overweight or had class I or II obesity – a BMI between 30 and less than 40 – were around half as likely to die as men in the normal BMI range.” “At the same time, a large waist raised the risk of dying by about a quarter, independent of BMI.” Many experts criticise BMI as it doesn’t differentiate bewteen fat and muscle Credit: puhimec What the study found... The findings, published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, suggest that the risk of all-cause mortality can be predicted using waist size. Men If you have a waist size of over 40 inches, you are considered high waist size. 40 – 44.9 inch: 15% higher45 – 49.9 inch: 25% higher50 – 54.9 inch: 110% higher55 – 55.9 inch: 103% higher60 – 64.9 inch: 144% higherMore than 65 inch: 540% higher Women If you have a waist size of over 35 inches, you are considered high waist size. 35 – 39.9 inch: 14% higher40 – 44.9 inch: 31% higher45 – 44.9 inch: 85% higher50 – 54.9 inch: 147% higher55 – 55.9 inch: 258% higherMore than 60 inch: 417% higher Also commenting on the study, Emeritus Professor Jennie Brand-Miller, from the School of Life and Environmental Sciences and Charles Perkins Centre at the University of Sydney, said the research suggested that “it’s better to have a decent amount of fat and muscle in the right places as we age”. This makes “evolutionary sense”, she said, adding that “men with a beer belly will be in trouble”. Professor Dodd, however, said that these findings were not an “excuse to put on weight”. BMI cannot tell fat from muscle, so often after the age of 60 a low BMI actually indicates lost muscle rather than leanness. And Tim Gill, Director of The Obesity Collective and Honorary Professor of Public Health Nutrition in the Charles Perkins Centre at the University of Sydney, said: “This analysis has demonstrated that having a high BMI in older age is actually associated with less risk of dying, which may seem counterintuitive, especially when the opposite is often found in younger adults. “However, as the authors point out, this should not be interpreted as high levels of fatness being protective of your health but instead reflects the inadequacies of BMI as a measure of body composition- a problem which is exaggerated in older adults.” BMI is a formula used to discover whether an individual is classed as underweight, a healthy weight, overweight or obese. Many medical professionals believe that having a BMI that’s too high or low can increase your risk of health problems, including heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes. BMI evaluates age, gender, height and weight. But many have criticised BMI measurements as they do not take the weight of bones or muscles into consideration. This means that muscular adults or athletes may be classed as overweight, despite not having much body fat. 1 comment1