Voters sour on Trump economy as Democrats open 11-point midterm lead in new polling

Sixty percent of likely voters say President Donald Trump's policies are making the economy worse.(CN) — Forty days from Election Day, a new national poll shows congressional Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on the generic ballot, a margin large enough that pollsters say it could signal a wave, even if individual races will still turn on local fights over grocery bills, gas, wars overseas and artificial intelligence.The Emerson College Polling survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted Sept. 21-22, found 60% of voters believe President Donald Trump’s economic policies are making the economy worse while only 28% say they are making it better. That is a 14-point jump in pessimism since April 2025. Forty-one percent now name the economy as their top concern, up four points from August.Kitchen table voters are not automatically lining up with the president’s party. People who list the economy as their No. 1 issue prefer the Democratic candidate 55% to 41%, a reversal from 2024 when similar voters favored Republicans.“Since then, the Republicans have stayed stagnant and the Democrats gained all those points,” Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball said in a media appearance Thursday. “They are hovering at their high mark and they may go higher.”Independents, who backed Trump two years ago, now favor Democrats 60% to 31%. Hispanic voters favor them 64% to 31%.Trump’s job approval sits at 39%, with 58% disapproving, his highest disapproval of the term. Fifty-six percent say his second term has gone worse than they expected, up from 43% in April 2025.“This is about as bad as it’s been in his six years in office,” Kimball said, noting Trump’s approval rating increased the first three years of his first term.Meanwhile, excitement for the election is high. Seventy-one percent say they are “very” excited to vote. Democrats lead that measure at 78%, followed by independents at 70% and Republicans at 66%.“There is enthusiasm for voters to go out there but we’re seeing a big split amongst the parties,” Kimball said. “If I’m the Republicans I’m concerned here because Trump had his convention and tried to drum up some excitement but the independents are more excited to vote in this election than Republicans are.“In midterm elections it’s always about turnout and it looks like Democrats have an edge here.”When voters ranked issues from 1 to 5 by importance in deciding their November vote, the Iran war scored highest at 3.87, followed by jobs (3.8), tariff policy (3.72), gas prices (3.69) and immigration (3.69). AI regulation landed at 3.66, ahead of interest rates, the Israel-Gaza conflict and data centers.“The president hasn’t done himself any favors winning over voters,” Kimball concluded. “It’s heading in the wrong direction based on the policies being implemented it seems.”Kimball noted the generic ballot does not capture every district’s quirks, but it does measure the scale of dissatisfaction. The poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Full crosstabs are posted with the release on Emerson’s site.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads