Victoria election 2026: Labor and Greens trade accusations of ‘dodgy deals’ as preferences squabble puts key seats on the line

The Greens have retaliated against Labor’s decision to run an open ticket in a key inner-city seat by refusing to direct preferences to the party in 15 electorates across the state at this month’s Victorian election.The move has sparked a war of words between the two parties, with each accusing the other of striking a “dodgy deal” that could help the Liberals and One Nation get elected on 28 November.On Friday, the Greens confirmed they would only be directing voters to number the Greens one and One Nation last across 15 electorates.The decision follows Labor’s decision on Tuesday to run an open ticket in the inner Melbourne seat of Prahran, where the Greens had been counting on Labor preferences to win it back. It has been held by the Liberals on a tiny 1.3 per cent margin – after the Greens lost it at a byelection in 2025.At the time, Greens leader Ellen Sandell told Guardian Australia Labor’s “unforgivable” decision could hand the upcoming election to a Liberal-One Nation coalition.A Labor spokesperson turned the accusation back on the Greens on Friday, mirroring Sandell’s language.“In one of the most consequential elections in Victoria’s history – the Greens have done a dodgy deal to help elect a Liberal One-Nation Government,” the spokesperson said.“This is unforgivable and Victorians won’t forget it’s Ellen Sandell and the Greens to blame when Jess Wilson cuts our hospitals and schools – and One Nation winds back our nation leading reforms on women’s rights and Treaty.”The Greens responded by accusing Labor of “lying to Victorian voters”.“The Greens will be putting One Nation last in every single electorate across Victoria. We always encourage people to vote in line with their values,” their spokesperson said.“After months of scaremongering about a Liberal-One Nation government, it is Labor who have done a dodgy backroom deal with the Liberals that could help elect one.”The 15 electorates where the Greens will issue these how-to-vote cards are: Albert Park, Ashwood, Bellarine, Bendigo East, Bendigo West, Essendon, Euroa, Gippsland East, Mildura, Mornington, Point Cook, Polwarth, South Barwon, Tarneit, Werribee.Labor fears the decision will particularly hurt their chances in Albert Park, Ashwood, Bellarine, the two Bendigo seats vacated by former premier Jacinta Allan and speaker Maree Edwards, and South Barwon.The Coalition, meanwhile, is quietly confident it will improving its chances of fending off One Nation and snatching seats from Labor.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHowever, Tony Barry the Liberal strategist turned pollster with Redbridge and co-host of Guardian Australia’s Back to Back Barries podcast, said most Greens voters don’t closely follow their party’s how-to-vote cards.“Historical preference flows from past state and federal elections shows about 85% of exhausted Greens votes flows to Labor and about 15% leakage to the Coalition and that rarely changes regardless of the particular circumstances,” Barry said.But he said in Essendon, where Labor candidate Kat Theodosis is contesting the seat following Danny Pearson’s retirement, in a complex race involving the Liberals, One Nation and three independents candidates, it “might be enough to flip the seat to the Liberals.”Meanwhile, the conservative Family First party is directing its preferences to Labor candidates affiliated with the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association (SDA), placing them second on their how-to-vote cards. The cards feature an image of a baby next to the Labor candidate name with claims they have a “pro-life voting record”.It prompted Pasoce Vale MP Anthony Cianflone, who is in a tight race against the Greens’ Angelica Panopoulos, to post a statement on social media saying he supported “women’s right to make their own decisions about their bodies and healthcare”.“That’s why I have supported the Victorian Labor government’s reforms protecting these rights”Family First have also preferenced Matthew Guy last in his safe Liberal seat of Bulleen. The party’s state leader, Moira Deeming, was disendorsed as a Liberal candidate after alleging Guy had placed her in a headlock earlier this year. Deeming later conceded she misunderstood the technical meaning of “headlock”.