Vance blames the Iran war, but diplomacy was the real failure - opinion

NOVEMBER 8, 2026 14:00In a lengthy X/Twitter post after Tuesday's midterm defeat, US Vice President JD Vance laid out why Republicans lost. He cited a pollster who asked Trump 2024 voters who had switched to the Democrats what would bring them back.According to Vance, four answers accounted for nearly all the responses: end the war, focus on the cost of living, put America first, and change America's relationship with Israel.Much of the pro-Israel community reacted with outrage at Vance “blaming the Jews.” But on the core diagnosis, Vance is largely right. The war with Iran became deeply unpopular. It drove up gas prices and inflation, and it turned a significant number of Americans against Israel. US President Donald Trump himself called Vance's analysis "largely true." Attacking the messenger accomplishes nothing.The problem is what Vance wrote next. Referring to the criticism Rachel Campos-Duffy received last Monday for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran, he concluded that "it turns out her political advice was sound."That conclusion does not follow. Even if the war cost Republicans Congress, this in no way justifies pursuit of diplomacy with the regime in Tehran. Vance is not merely wrong. He has it exactly backward. The war became a political disaster precisely because the administration abandoned it for diplomacy.People vote at a polling station at the Buck Creek School, during the US midterm elections on Election Day, in Jefferson County, Kansas, US, November 3, 2026. (credit: REUTERS/Nathan Howard)On February 28, Trump announced the launch of Operation Epic Fury and laid out four military objectives: destroy Iran's navy, destroy its ballistic missile program, ensure it can never obtain a nuclear weapon, and end its ability to fund and direct its proxies. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz was added a couple of weeks later, after Iran closed it.Trump's words to the Iranian peopleTrump did not stop there. The final minutes of that speech were addressed to the Iranian people. He told the IRGC and the police to lay down their arms or "face certain death." He told the Iranian people that "the hour of your freedom is at hand" and urged them, once the bombing was over, to take over their government.Regime change was not one of the stated military objectives. But it was never really separate from them. A surviving Islamic Republic will rebuild its missiles, its proxy network and its nuclear program the moment it is able to. It was always clear that the only way to achieve Trump's four objectives permanently is to bring down the regime.For roughly five and a half weeks, the war moved in that direction. American forces concentrated heavily on Iran's navy and missile launch sites. Israel concentrated on the regime itself. The decapitation campaign did not end with the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day.It continued for weeks; Ali Larijani was killed about three weeks in. In the final stretch, Israel was striking the IRGC and the Basij, the forces that terrorize and murder Iranian civilians. Israeli drones were hitting their checkpoints and headquarters. Defections had begun. The conditions necessary for the population to return to the streets were underway.Then came April 8.Trump agreed to a ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, whose prime minister had requested a two-week pause to give diplomacy a chance. Trump announced he would suspend the bombing for two weeks. Those two weeks have now stretched to seven months.What followed was a memorandum of understanding negotiated with Vance in the lead, and Israel cut out of the process. It was one of the weakest diplomatic agreements in recent memory, and it collapsed almost immediately.The campaign Israel and the US were waging before April 8 never resumed. Later American strikes on Iranian infrastructure were not a return to that war. IRGC and regime leadership have not been attacked since.None of this should have surprised anyone. Ten days before the war began, I wrote in these pages that Iran was not trying to win a war with the United States. It was trying to survive Trump. The regime knew it could not defeat America militarily.It also knew Trump had no appetite for a prolonged war. Its strategy was simple: drag the conflict out, keep oil prices high, and let political pressure build in Washington as the midterms approached. For the Islamic Republic, survival is victory. Once Trump is gone, everything the war set out to destroy can be rebuilt.That is precisely what happened. Every week of negotiations was another week of high gas prices with the regime still standing. Tehran's playbook worked perfectly, and it worked because Washington agreed to play along.Iran's own behavior shows who it fears. In recent weeks, Tehran has issued statements threatening European governments, Gulf states that host American bases, and American forces directly. The IRGC has warned AI companies that work with Israel. It has even warned Elon Musk over Starlink. Conspicuously, Iran has refrained from threatening Israel.Since April 8, Iran has fired exactly one missile at Israel and promptly stopped when Israel’s response was too costly. The regime is not afraid of American negotiators. It is afraid of Israel because it knows that Israel is waiting for an opportunity to actually bring down the regime.Those who wish to argue that Israel pushed Trump into this war may do so. That argument ignores that Trump has been more focused on the Iranian threat than any figure in American public life since the 1980s, but grant it for argument's sake.Even so, it is incoherent to blame Israel both for starting the war and for how it turned out. The war became a problem because Trump chose the path of diplomacy advocated by Pakistan, Qatar, and Vance himself, against Israel’s wishes.Diplomacy is not an inherent good. Neville Chamberlain conducted diplomacy too. The question is whether it serves the objective. Seven months of talks with Tehran have produced no deal that holds, no dismantled nuclear program, no end to proxy terrorism, and no freedom for the Iranian people. What they have produced is exactly the outcome that Iran was working towards since April 8.As politics, Vance's post is shrewd. He kept his distance from the war from the start and was largely absent from public view during the fighting. He reappeared only when the ceasefire talks began. Now he is making sure the defeat does not stick to him. Donald Trump Jr. has already endorsed his analysis.But shrewd politics is not sound strategy. Trump now faces a choice. According to reports, the options before him are renewed strikes, a deal being drafted by Qatari mediators, or continued blockade and sanctions in the hope that Tehran eventually gives in. Vance and others are pushing for a deal. If Trump takes that road, he will be repeating the very mistake that brought him here.The voters did not punish the war Israel wanted. They punished the one Washington settled for.The writer is the executive director of Israel365 Action and co-host of the Shoulder to Shoulder podcast.Follow us on Google