U.S. public debt hits US$40 trillion, raising ‘doom loop’ risk

Skip to Content News Archives Economy Energy Oil & Gas Renewables Electric Vehicles Mining Commodities Agriculture Real Estate Mortgages Mortgage Rates Finance Banking Insurance Fintech Cryptocurrency Work Wealth Smart Money Wealth Management Investor Personal Finance Family Finance Retirement Taxes High Net Worth FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials More Innovation Information Technology FP500 Podcasts Small Business Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Financial Post Store Obituaries Place a Notice Advertising Advertising With Us Advertising Solutions Postmedia Ad Manager Sponsorship Requests Classifieds Place a Classifieds ad Working Profile Settings My Subscriptions My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ News Economy Energy Mining Real Estate Finance Work Wealth Investor FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.HomeNewsEconomyU.S. public debt hits US$40 trillion, raising ‘doom loop’ riskInterest costs are now the third-largest part of the budget, after healthcare and Social SecurityAuthor of the article:Daniel Flatley and Jorgelina do RosarioLast updated 11 minutes ago The government is now getting ever closer to the statutory debt ceiling of US$41.1 trillion. Photo by Samuel Corum/BloombergTotal United States public debt surpassed US$40 trillion for the first time, and has now surged by a third in less than five years, as U.S. lawmakers continue to shrug off calls to contend with historically wide fiscal deficits.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountPublic debt outstanding stood at US$40.05 trillion as of the close of business Tuesday, a Treasury Department release on Wednesday showed.The news came hours after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a fresh attempt to rein-in long-term borrowing costs from multi-year highs — a notable component of the growth in debt. The Treasury said it’s ramping up a buyback program for longer-dated securities, in an announcement that sent yields lower.SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE: FP West: Energy Insider brings you behind the oilpatch’s closed doors with exclusive insights from insiders every Wednesday morning.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of FP West: Energy Insider will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againThe crossing of the US$30 trillion mark only dates back to January 2022, illustrating the rapid growth in federal borrowing needs. And there’s no end in sight.Republicans have long opposed revenue-raising tax increases, while both parties have been loathe to sign on to politically toxic cuts to healthcare and retirement benefits for seniors. Many observers anticipate Congress and the administration of the day will only act if forced by a financial-market disruption.That’s not for lack of talk about the issue in Washington. Bessent, for one, said a key reason he got involved in politics was to help tackle deficits running at a pace unprecedented for times outside of major wars, pandemics or depressed job markets.Yet economists, the Congressional Budget Office and Wall Street all see little or no progress in coming years for the deficit-to-gross domestic product ratio.“Optically, I’m sure crossing thresholds like US$40 trillion will focus attention on the issue in the near term,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG. “But it does not represent a magical threshold for debt dynamics, and projections have anticipated this outcome for some time.”More important, Luzzetti said, is the climb in U.S. Treasury yields, which is steadily increasing the cost of servicing the record debt load. Last Thursday, the department’s latest 30-year bond auction resulted in the costliest such sale in a quarter century. A 10-year auction a day earlier drew the highest financing cost at that tenor since 2007.As buyers demand higher yields, that in turn drives up the Treasury’s borrowing needs. With two months left to go in the fiscal year, the government’s tally for interest costs so far for 2026 is US$1.17 trillion — a 15 per cent increase on the same period a year before. That in turn adds to the debt, potentially fuelling further investor calls for higher rates, in a pattern known as a “doom loop.”Interest costs are now the third-largest part of the budget, after healthcare and Social Security.This advertisement has not loaded yet.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.The public debt figure includes both the marketable Treasuries that investors focus on and “intragovernmental” debt — which reflects items such as past surpluses in the Social Security system that were parked into specially issued Treasuries.“The federal budget is the enemy within,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and a former director of the CBO, wrote in a note Monday. “It is the greatest threat to the foundations of economic progress, U.S. international economic standing, and national security. The only reason for optimism should be material actions to rein in the sea of red ink. There are no such material actions.”The rise in U.S. debt accelerated during the punishing economic downturns tied to the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. During those periods, revenue slid as tax-paying workers lost jobs, and assistance payments jumped.Analysis compiled by Deutsche Bank economists shows policy measures by administrations over time also contributed notably:George W. Bush administration tax cuts in the early 2000s are estimated to have reduced revenues by US$3.3 trillion through the-mid 2010s.President Donald Trump’s tax cuts passed in 2017 reduced revenues by at least another US$1.5 trillion over the first decade.On the spending side, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan cost taxpayers over US$1.6 trillion through the mid-2010s.The debt impact of President Barack Obama’s passage of the Affordable Care Act “is more uncertain, with some official estimates showing a reduction in deficits but others arguing that it added ~US$500 billion to U.S. debt over the first decade.President Joe Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan Act was estimated to increase deficits by US$1.8-to-1.9 trillion over a decade, excluding interest costs.Bessent came into office in 2025 touting a budget deficit target of around three per cent of GDP by the end of President Donald Trump’s second term, which concludes in January 2029.It’s not clear how that may yet happen. The ratio was six per cent in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Trump, seeking to galvanize support ahead of the November midterm elections, is eyeing new tax-cut promises in addition to increases in defence spending. Meanwhile, the Elon Musk-led 2025 Department of Government Efficiency effort, which sought to slash discretionary spending including on contracts and government buildings, failed to cut outlays as much as DOGE’s own estimates projected.The government is now getting ever closer to the statutory debt ceiling of US$41.1 trillion. Hitting that marker is expected to trigger another in the series of partisan showdowns in Washington over the years to head off a potentially devastating U.S. payments default.The ceiling will be reached in mid-2027, Fitch Ratings estimates. The agency on Aug. 13 affirmed the country’s AA+ credit rating, while adding to warnings about the current borrowing trajectory.“The government has not taken meaningful actions to address the large general government fiscal deficits,” Fitch said. “Spending pressures will mount over the next decade due to an aging population.”The country will be “vulnerable to future economic shocks” as debt levels increase, the rating company said.“Hitting this big round number will hopefully send a wake up call throughout Washington,” said Michael Peterson, who chairs the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a research group, in regard to the US$40 trillion. “It will hurt everyday affordability across the country if we don’t get our debt under control,” he said.Continued outsize borrowing “will put upward pressure on interest costs, which will make everyone’s mortgage car loans and credit card bills even higher.”—With assistance from Laura Curtis.We apologize, but this video has failed to load.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.