US Natural Gas Market Verging on Record Growth

US natural gas production is projected to reach a record high of 111.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2026, up from 107.6 bcfd in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). By 2027, domestic supply is expected to hit 115.9 bcfd.But that’s only half the story.Over the next two years, US natural gas supply and demand will both rise to record levels, the EIA states in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.Domestic gas consumption is projected to rise from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 111.7 bcfd in 2026 and 115.9 bcfd in 2027.The agency said increased drilling efficiency, rising electricity demand, and expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity continue to drive production despite selective capital spending by producers.Growth is being led by key plays like the Permian and Haynesville shale gas regions, with US gas inventories on track to start the winter about 5% above the five-year average on Oct. 31. Reuters reports:The September projections for 2026 were higher than the EIA’s forecasts in August of 111.2 bcfd for production and 92.0 bcfd for demand.The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would rise from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027.Another study by Ernst & Young found that the US oil and gas industry is increasingly focused on improving the performance of existing assets while maintaining disciplined growth. A press release states that, while mergers and acquisitions (M&A) continue to play an important role in shaping portfolios, the findings suggest producers are prioritizing operational performance, capital efficiency and maximizing returns from current assets.Recent major upstream and downstream deals include the $10 billion all-stock combination of Tamarack Valley Energy (TSX:TVE) and Headwater Exploration (TSX:HWX); Diversified Energy’s (NYSE:DEC) $1.8B acquisition of Birch Permian Holdings; Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) $53B takeover of Hess Corp; and ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) blockbuster takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources for $$59.5B.But total capital expenditures fell 49% year over year, while M&A spending declined 70%.The annual EY US Oil and Gas Reserves and Production Benchmarking Study analyzed five years of performance data from the 30 largest publicly traded exploration and production (E&P) companies.One of the study’s most notable findings is the divergence between production and reserve replacement. Oil production reached a study-period high in 2025, yet oil reserve additions from extensions and discoveries declined 11% year over year and failed to fully replace production volumes for the first time since 2021. Combined oil reserves also declined by less than 1%.While oil reserve replacement moderated, natural gas fundamentals strengthened in the study, with production rising 18%, reserves increasing 14%, discoveries up 21%, and reserve additions turning positive for the first time since 2021.The study also points to growing demand for LNG, rising electricity consumption and the expansion of AI-related infrastructure and data centers as factors supporting long-term natural gas demand.More Top Reads From Oilprice.comDiesel Crunch Set to Worsen as Refining Capacity Falls Short, Industry WarnsMorgan Stanley: Oil Traders Are ‘More Precise’ With Risk as Wars Drag OnSinopec Sees China Oil Demand Falling 8.9% in 2026