US midterms: What's at stake for Trump, from impeachment to investigations? 5 points

US President Donald Trump was elected by American voters for a term of four years. But with his term halfway through, he might soon be facing a reckoning, as the US votes in the midterm elections.On Tuesday, November 3 (US Time), more than 230 million American citizens will be voting to determine which of the country's two political parties, the Republicans or the Democrats, will control the US Congress, which comprises the Senate and the House of Representatives. All seats in the House and one-third in the Senate are going to the polls. As of now, Republicans hold a slim majority in both the House and the Senate.Also in contention are 36 American states, including Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Michigan, which will be electing their governors on Tuesday (US Time).This is among the most high-stakes midterm elections in recent history. In terms of spending on the campaign, both parties have expended $11.9 billion, surpassing the $8.9 billion spent in 2022. In terms of turnout, more than 57 million Americans have already voted early by November 2, exceeding the 46 million early votes recorded during the same period in 2022. With the Democrats seeking to reclaim the US Congress and the Republicans fighting to retain their majorities, the results could have far-reaching consequences for Trump. This is because the Democrats have been projected to secure a majority in the House, and potentially in the Senate, amid record low approval ratings for Trump.From his legislative agenda and congressional investigations to the possibility of a third impeachment, here are five things at stake for the US President.WHAT ARE MIDTERMS IN THE US? Before we go into what's at stake for US President Donald Trump, let's first have a look at what the midterms elections in the US actually are.Held every four years, halfway through an American president's four-year term, midterm elections determine the composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate, which make up the US Congress. Voters elect all 435 members of the House and between 33 and 35 members of the 100-seat Senate. Several states also elect governors and elect representatives.While the president is not on the ballot, the results determine which party controls the US Congress, directly impacting the president's ability to pass legislation, make appointments (such as judges to the US Supreme Court) and govern for the remaining two years of their term.For the 2026 midterm election, voting is taking place on Tuesday, November 3 (US Time), with more than 230 million citizens eligible to vote. All seats in the House, and 35 seats in the Senate are in contention. Voters are also electing governors in 36 of the US' 50 states.Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 advantage in the House, with two vacancies, and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The Democrats, meanwhile, need a net gain of four seats in either chamber to take control. The newly elected lawmakers will take office in January 2027.1. A THIRD IMPEACHMENT ON THE CARDS?Arguably one of the biggest personal and political stakes for Donald Trump ahead of the midterms is the issue of impeachment.Trump has already been impeached two times during his first stint as President. The first was in 2019 over allegations that he pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden.The second was in 2021 over his role in the January 6 Capitol attack. He had been acquitted both times thanks to the Republicans retaining control of the Senate then.A third impeachment could also be on the way, if the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives.According to Reuters, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has said Democrats have neither ruled impeachment in nor ruled it out if they regain control of the House. However, party leaders have indicated that investigations and gathering evidence should come first.Furthermore, impeaching a sitting president is not an easy job. It would require the Democrats to gain control of both the Senate and the House. In Trump's first term, the Democrats had control of the House, enabling them to pass impeachment motions, which were shot down by the Republican Senate.And even if the Democrats gain control of the Senate, any impeachment motion would require a two-thirds majority to pass. In any case, should the Democrats perform strongly, impeachment will be on the cards.2. INVESTIGATIONS INTO TRUMP ADMINISTRATIONA Democrat victory in the House of Representatives post November could open the door to a series of congressional investigations into Donald Trump, his administration and his family's business dealings.Winning a majority in the House will give the Democrats the authority to take charge of its committees, gain greater investigative resources and acquire the power to issue subpoenas, compelling individuals and organisations to provide documents and testimony.The Democrats have already drawn up an extensive target list. According to a September 28 report by the Associated Press, these include the Trump family's extensive global business dealings and growing wealth, the administration's immigration enforcement operations, its handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, and allegations of corporate influence over government decisions.Other possible areas of scrutiny include the administration's foreign policy, federal spending and the construction of Trump's proposed White House ballroom.2. TRUMP'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDAA Democrat takeover of either the House or the Senate could make it considerably harder for Trump to push for a legislative agenda during his final two years as President.Control of the House will give Democrats the power to decide which bills come to vote, as well as block or delay Republican-backed proposals. A majority would also give them the ability to pass their own proposals, although those could be blocked by a Republican-majority Senate.Things can get further complicated if the Democrats gain a majority in the Senate. They would then control both chambers' legislative agendas and gain greater leverage over federal spending, government funding and negotiations over the debt ceiling.But a Democrat-controlled US Congress would not reduce Trump to a figurehead. As the US President, he will still retain the Presidential veto, and will have the power to continue using executive orders and other presidential powers to pursue policies in areas such as immigration, tariffs and foreign affairs.3. APPOINTMENTS TO KEY POSITIONSA Democratic takeover of the Senate could make it harder for Trump to appoint federal judges, Supreme Court justices and senior government officials, as all such nominations require Senate confirmation.Democrats could delay confirmation hearings, block votes or reject nominees, limiting Trump's ability to shape the federal judiciary and government institutions during his remaining two years in office.The administration is already conscious of this possibility. Reuters reported on September 16 that the White House had announced 13 judicial nominations over nine days in August, as Republicans sought to confirm as many nominees as possible before the midterms.4. TRUMP'S POLITICAL AUTHORITYEven though Donald Trump's name is not on the ballot in the midterm elections, the results will serve as a referendum of sorts on his performance during his second term as US President.A strong Republican performance would help Trump retain his considerable influence over the party and strengthen his position in shaping its future direction. Although he is constitutionally barred from seeking a third presidential term in 2028, he could continue to wield considerable influence over Republican policymaking, leadership choices and the party's presidential succession.On the other hand, significant Republican losses could embolden Trump's critics within the party and raise questions about his political influence. Several Republican candidates are campaigning with Trump's endorsement, and a poor electoral performance could revive questions about whether his backing and campaign support remain decisive in Republican primaries.- Ends