US Midterm Vote Won’t Necessarily Lift Costa Rica’s 12.5% Tariff

Tuesday’s midterm elections in the United States could reshape the political climate around the 12.5% tariff Washington applies to many Costa Rican goods. But two international relations analysts say a change in control of Congress would not, by itself, bring that duty down. Voters on November 3 will choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 Senate seats. Republicans currently control both chambers. Analyst Carlos Murillo said the tariff is among the most sensitive issues for Costa Rica in the vote. He warned that President Donald Trump could rely on other legal instruments to keep his trade policy in place even if Congress or the courts push back, so a new majority would not automatically reverse measures that affect the country. What could change, Murillo said, is the political context in which those measures are applied. The tariff took effect on July 24. It stems from investigations the Office of the US Trade Representative opened in March under Section 301 of US trade law into some 60 economies, over what Washington called insufficient efforts to block imports of goods made with forced labor. Costa Rica landed at the top of a range of 10% to 12.5%. Coffee, pineapple, bananas, orange juice, plant cuttings, fruit and vegetable seeds, and certain refined sugars remain excluded, according to the Ministry of Foreign Trade (Comex). Trade Minister Indiana Trejos said at the time that Costa Rica respects labor rights and rules-based trade, and that her ministry would keep working with exporters and Washington to improve market access. Nuria Marín, also an international relations analyst, described the midterms as a referendum on Trump’s presidency. She said Democrats have strong chances of retaking the House, while the Senate is harder to call. She put the president’s approval at around 30%, down from a peak of about 50% in March 2025, and said that level of support is not normal in the United States. Marín linked the slide to rising prices driven by tariffs and higher energy costs, which she said have squeezed household budgets for the same voters who backed Trump’s promise to fix the economy. A Congress with more Democrats could tighten oversight of the president, particularly on trade, she said. But she cautioned that many decisions rest with the executive branch, so lawmakers would not be able to block everything. That limit extends to two other areas that matter to Costa Rica. In the analyst Marín’s view, a change in legislative control would not necessarily alter US migration policy or anti-drug cooperation directly, because both fall largely under the executive, where Trump retains broad powers. Security ties between the two countries have been a recurring focus. US Ambassador Melinda Hildebrand met with representatives of the Supreme Court, the Public Ministry and the Judicial Investigation Agency (OIJ) on September 30 and reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to fighting drug trafficking. Murillo said Costa Rica has taken on significant commitments with the United States on policing, military and organized crime matters, which raises the stakes of any shift in US foreign policy or regional security priorities. He also pointed to fuel. Gasoline and diesel prices are a decisive issue for US voters because they hit family spending directly, he said. In Costa Rica, he added, local fuel prices are trending upward but have not yet fully reflected international increases because of the country’s price-setting system. Murillo said the loss of a Republican majority could also sharpen confrontation between Trump and his opponents in Congress. Both analysts suggested that the policies with the most direct effect on Costa Rica, from the tariff to migration rules and security cooperation, will continue to be shaped largely by the White House rather than Capitol Hill, whatever the result on Tuesday.