US midterm election night: When Irish viewers can expect the key calls

With Ireland five hours ahead of the east coast, the first US midterm polls will close at 11pm our time. But that’s only half the story.Florida and North Carolina usually count most of their vote within hours. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t process postal ballots until polling day, and California accepts postal ballots arriving up to a week late.A candidate leading at 2am may be trailing by breakfast, and that is normal rather than sinister. If Democrats run ahead of their polls in Virginia, South Carolina and Ohio before 1am, Republicans face a very bad night. If they don’t, the US Senate may come down to Maine and Alaska, where ranked choice voting slows everything down, and we might not have a definitive result for days or even weeks.11pm: Most of Indiana and Kentucky close first. Kentucky’s 6th district, an open seat the Cook Report rates a toss-up, is being treated by analysts as an early test of whether a large Democratic wave is building.READ MOREMidnight: Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and most of Florida close. Virginia’s 2nd district is the first genuine swing seat to report. Watch the margin as much as the winner.South Carolina counts quickly. Darline Graham was appointed to the Senate after the death of her brother Lindsey, and a New York Times/Siena poll has her level with Democrat Annie Andrews. Jon Ossoff has led Republican Mike Collins consistently in Georgia polling. The open governor’s race between businessman Rick Jackson and former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is much tighter. Florida holds back statewide figures until the Panhandle closes at 1am but then reports fast.12.30am: Ohio and North Carolina. Sherrod Brown is attempting a comeback against Jon Husted, who was appointed to JD Vance’s old seat, and recent polls give Brown a lead of three to five points. Polls show Democrat Amy Acton seven points ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy for governor. North Carolina reports early votes first. Polls give Democrat Roy Cooper a double-digit lead over Michael Whatley and even Trump has publicly suggested the seat is lost.1am: The biggest wave brings in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine, Texas, Kansas, New Hampshire and the Florida Panhandle. Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a state where no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. Polls show the race tied or Talarico narrowly ahead. In Kansas, which last elected a Democratic senator in 1932, Roger Marshall faces Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton, who has led narrowly.Abdul El-Sayed is narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers for Michigan’s open Democratic seat, even after the unexpected 11th-hour endorsement of Rogers by Democrat Haley Stevens who lost her party’s state Senate primary to El-Sayed. Detroit expects to report about 95 per cent of its ballots overnight and is aiming to finish by 9am here.In Maine, Republican incumbent Susan Collins narrowly trails Troy Jackson, but polls have been badly wrong here in the past. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas has polled five to eight points ahead of John Sununu.Pennsylvania counts postal votes slowly, but Ryan Mackenzie’s Lehigh Valley seat is a long-standing bellwether.2am: Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado and New York. In Iowa, Ashley Hinson holds a narrow poll lead over Paralympian Josh Turek.Wisconsin’s open governor’s race between Tom Tiffany and David Crowley is a toss-up.3am: Nevada, where Republican governor Joe Lombardo faces Aaron Ford in what is rated as the closest governor’s race in the country. 4am: California, Oregon and Washington. California counties have 13 days to report most ballots and analysts say it routinely leaves a handful of House seats uncalled. If the House is close, control may not be clear for a week or more.5am: Republican Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola and an unrelated candidate also called Dan Sullivan. The US justice department had sued to block certification of the results should the Republican incumbent Dan S Sullivan lose but this was dismissed by a US district judge on Sunday. The other candidate, Dan J Sullivan, has no party affiliation. If it’s tight, this one could run for weeks.How we’re covering the US midtermsFollow Irish Times Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan and video journalist Chris Maddaloni in the final week of the campaign as they report from key battlegrounds and gauge the mood of voters across the US. More US midterm election coverage here.