US elections: Republicans are betting on Islamophobia to win the midterms

On 12 October, federal agents raided the home of Ilhan Omar, the first Black Muslim woman elected to the US Congress. Just over three weeks before the midterm elections, years of presidential vitriol aimed at a sitting member of Congress have become an act of state power and a message to President Donald Trump's political opponents. Midterms are often read as a report card on the sitting president and, by extension, his party. With approval ratings low and frustration mounting over the cost of living, Trump and the Republican Party are betting on dehumanising Islamophobic rhetoric aimed at Muslim Americans. American campaigns have always carried mudslinging, but what is new is the scale, the institutionalisation and the zeal to turn bigotry into policy. For the Republicans today, fear and hatred are no longer a campaign tactic but the platform itself. It is not limited to Trump. It is difficult to find a Republican who is not employing Islamophobia at some level. According to The Washington Post, nearly 100 Republican members of Congress have posted about Islam or Muslims on social media since the start of 2025, almost all of it negative, and several have called for Muslims to be deported. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters In April, the Center for the Study of Organized Hate found that between February 2025 and March 2026, Republican officials built "a coordinated anti-Muslim campaign involving 1,111 social media posts, eight bills, and a 62-member congressional caucus", and that many of the posts met all five criteria for speech likely to inspire violence. The language is unambiguous. There is no innuendo or dog whistle, only open hatred. In their own words In February, the Republican Congressman Randy Fine of Florida wrote that "the choice between dogs and Muslims is not a difficult one". In March, his colleague Andy Ogles declared that "Muslims don't belong in American society", and Andrew Clyde posted "No more Islamic immigration" with a call to "Denaturalize, deport, repeat." In June, Bo French, the Republican nominee for the Texas Railroad Commission, wrote: "I won't rest until every Muslim is gone." In August, Nancy Mace, a Republican congresswoman from South Carolina, declared that "every single Muslim holding public office in America is a trojan horse, and a threat to both national security and our republic". There is no innuendo or dog whistle, only open hatred On 10 October, Trump refused to call Abdul El-Sayed by his name, referring to the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan as "Mohammed" and describing him as a "radical jihadist". Words from people in power carry weight, and these have hardened into institutions. The House now has a Sharia-Free America Caucus with 68 members, lending congressional legitimacy to anti-Muslim hysteria. There is a Sharia-Free America Act, and there have been several congressional hearings on the subject, featuring notable anti-Muslim voices including Robert Spencer, an author who promoted the same claims in the 2010s. For those of us who research Islamophobia, this orchestrated moral panic is not new. Republicans are recycling a campaign strategy from 15 years ago. What sharia actually is and what Republicans have constructed as "sharia" are two very different things. For Muslims, sharia is an Islamic ethical code, a moral compass for all aspects of life, from how to pray to how to greet one's neighbours. It is more than a set of laws. It can neither be imposed on an unwilling person nor replace the constitution, and no one is attempting either. The Republican "sharia" bogeyman is simply a phantom problem. From words to policy From an obsession with "sharia law" to Muslim immigration, Republican officials have homed in on 1 percent of the US population as the single greatest threat to the country, and it does not stop at rhetoric. Their constant musings about ending Muslim immigration are close to becoming reality. In September, the Cato Institute found that legal immigration from Muslim-majority countries had fallen by 96 percent since December 2024. For other tangible impacts, look at Texas, where anti-Muslim campaigning is at fever pitch. Texas Governor Greg Abbott designated the Council on American-Islamic Relations (Cair), the largest Muslim American civil rights organisation, a "terrorist organization", and the state excluded Islamic private schools from its voucher programme. In September, the Texas State Board of Education approved a deeply inaccurate social studies curriculum that portrays Islam as a violent religion. Ilhan Omar was never supposed to be an equal Read More » In a lesson plan that would fail scholarly review, the Republican-majority board requires students to learn that "radical Islam" motivated the 9/11 attacks, when the reality is that al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden were behind them. The agenda-driven lesson plans are intellectually dishonest. They present the faith of nearly two billion people as inherently violent, and they sow hatred in the next generation. Republican-led Islamophobia is stripping Muslim Americans of their constitutional rights and marking them as suspects in their own country, forcing them to wonder whether they are safe and whether they belong. Muslim Americans are not asking for special treatment, only the equal treatment they are being denied. Individual prejudice is real, and politicians know it. For the past 25 years, they have been feeding it. A Pew survey published in September found that public attitudes towards Islam are worse than they were after 9/11. How can that be? A glance over the past two decades shows a concerted effort by politicians from across the political spectrum to advance harmful and dangerous narratives about Islam and Muslims. Islamophobic rhetoric has been politically expedient. Candidates have won elections by stoking fear and hatred of Muslims, and elected officials have deflected attention from their own policy failures by pointing to the manufactured threat of Islam. Why now Intertwined with the politicians' efforts has been the Islamophobia industry, which has made anti-Muslim bigotry a financial enterprise. Pew found that 43 percent of US adults said Muslims are less patriotic than other Americans, and 51 percent said Islam encourages violence more than other religions do. Islamophobic hate crimes are at an all-time high, with rising harassment, vandalism and violence across the country In the previous election cycle, the target was "illegal immigrants" and a hyperfixation on the "border wall". Now, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) terrorising and killing civilians across the country, that agenda does not sell. With approval low, the economy teetering on recession and no clear policy agenda, the old "Muslim terrorist" script is the easiest message to reach for. Islamophobia has long been profitable in American politics, and it carries a premium when governing offers little else to run on. This is also a backlash against rising Muslim American political organising. When Zohran Mamdani ran for mayor of New York City, he faced an onslaught of Islamophobia. His opponents spent millions on discriminatory campaigning, and they still failed. Now the same attacks are aimed at El-Sayed, who could become the first Muslim American senator on 3 November. Despite the vitriol, more than 255 Muslim Americans now hold state, local or national office. Muslim Americans are taking part in daily civic life, have built broad coalitions and organising structures, and are demanding their rights as Americans. Even so, Islamophobia as a broader political and social force is not retreating. That is visible in how dangerous the rhetoric from politicians has become, in the policies being proposed, in the political movements being created and in the efforts to criminalise Muslim American civil society. Hatred does not stay online nor is it confined to a campaign. In May, two gunmen attacked the Islamic Center of San Diego and killed three Muslim men. Islamophobic hate crimes are at an all-time high, with rising harassment, vandalism and violence across the country. The tools being tested on Muslims today, including denaturalisation rhetoric, raids on political opponents and pressure on civil society, can be turned on anyone. On 3 November, voters will decide whether fear and hatred remain the Republican Party's platform, or whether they will have been the party's last, losing bet. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.