US business deals won’t end Russia’s war on Ukraine

Kirill Dmitriev came to Washington on Monday to discuss peace in Ukraine and what American and Russian companies might do together after the war. President Vladimir Putin’s envoy, who heads Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, met officials from the U.S. Treasury and Energy departments to discuss a settlement and possible energy projects after the fighting. The talks were described as constructive, but no announcement followed.The visit came after President Donald Trump pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop striking Russian refineries. Trump is worried about diesel prices, which have risen amid both the war with Iran and attacks on Russian refining capacity. For Ukraine, however, refinery strikes are among the few ways to impose substantial costs on Russia far from the front. Zelensky has offered to stop if Russia also stops attacking Ukrainian energy and civilian facilities. Russia has not agreed to the reciprocal pause.Earlier this month, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin in Moscow. Dmitriev joined them. The Kremlin said the conversation covered major Russian-American projects as well as the war. Washington is also pursuing a smaller deal involving Black Sea shipping and, perhaps, energy infrastructure. A senior Ukrainian source familiar with the proposals told me that a Black Sea arrangement is the “minimum viable product.” The source described a deal allowing shipments of grain, metal, and other commercial goods, excluding military cargo. A wider agreement would exchange a halt to attacks on Ukraine’s electricity system for a halt to attacks on Russian oil facilities. It might offer “a little chance to try to stop this bloody winter,” the source said.An enforceable pause in energy attacks could spare Ukrainians another winter of cold apartments and dark streets. But Moscow has shown no sign of wanting to give up its ability to strike the grid, especially before winter makes that weapon more powerful.At the same time, The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is considering business agreements with Russia before the war ends. An American official told the paper that the prospect of profit might encourage influential Russians to press Putin for peace. Meanwhile, The Atlantic reported that a separate proposal backed by Trump sought to ease sanctions on Russia in exchange for the release of political prisoners.The problem is that both these ideas offer Moscow concessions for little change in its conduct. Russian oligarchs depend on Putin for their fortunes. They will not risk flying out of the apartment building windows by challenging him. Freeing prisoners does not cost anything for Moscow, and Putin can always fill his prisons again.It is unclear what exactly Dmitriev discussed in Washington. He has promoted a vast portfolio of potential U.S.-Russia projects in the past. An earlier Russian proposal included American participation in oil and gas development, work on strategic minerals, and renewed Russian access to dollar payments. Dmitriev has attached figures in the trillions to these possibilities, though no specific agreement emerged from his visit to Washington.A senior Ukrainian source was unimpressed. He called Dmitriev “the best air seller in the world” and said that the idea that a spectacular business offer could persuade Putin to end the war sounded to him “more like erotic fantasies of Steve [Witkoff].” It remains unclear what, exactly, is being offered, who would profit and why would any of it make Putin abandon his war aims?Putin has already accepted enormous economic losses to continue fighting. Russia has lost access to Western investment, technology, and markets. Sanctions have made its finances harder to manage. Yet the Kremlin has not changed its negotiating position or aims. If this was all about financial questions, the war would never have happened.WHITE HOUSE DRUG CZAR WARNS OF EMERGING DRUG 100 TIMES MORE POTENT THAN FENTANYLMoscow often operates with the assumption, “What is mine is mine, what is yours we can negotiate.” Offering sanctions relief or business deals to the Kremlin while Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s energy system would be foolish. Putin would get something he wants without giving up anything he intends to keep. Then he will ask for more. Moscow has little reason to end a war if prolonging it continues to yield concessions.Pressure is the only thing likely to change Putin’s calculation. Ukraine needs the means to defend its cities and keep raising the cost of the war for Russia. Washington can try to see whether Moscow will accept a shipping deal or stop striking the grid. But it should be clear-eyed about what follows if Moscow refuses.