Up to one in three people with type 2 diabetes develop serious heart or kidney disease or die within five years of diagnosis, study of 1.6 million patients suggests

Up to a third of people with type 2 diabetes will develop heart failure, kidney disease or die within five years of their diagnosis, a major study has found. Over ten years, this risk increases to more than 55 per cent.Researchers from the University of Glasgow say the findings highlight the importance of catching the condition early, and making lifestyle changes to reduce the risk of serious complications. Almost 4.2 million people in the UK have been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, while a further 1.3 million are estimated to be living with the disease without a diagnosis. The condition is a leading cause of blindness, kidney failure, heart attack, and stroke and occurs when the body does not respond properly to – or make enough – insulin, causing blood sugar to rise dangerously high. It is often linked to obesity and fuelled by poor diets, with rates having surged by almost 70 per cent among young women in England over the last decade. 'Our findings clearly show how the serious complications associated with type 2 diabetes rise sharply over time as obesity, abnormal blood fats, high blood pressure and high blood sugar damage blood vessels and vital organs,' said Professor Naveed Sattar, the study's lead author. 'Our results emphasise the critical importance of detecting and treating type 2 diabetes thoroughly at the earliest opportunity to help reduce the risk of serious complications.' Up to a third of people with type 2 diabetes will develop heart failure, kidney disease or die within five years of diagnosisThe study – which is being presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes – analysed data from more than 1.6 million Americans diagnosed with the disease between January 2010 and March 2024. The average age of participants was 59 and among the patients who had a body mass index recorded, the average was 31 – placing them in the obese category. Almost three-quarters of participants also had high cholesterol and more than two thirds had high blood pressure.Researchers found that within five years of a diagnosis, nearly one in five patients developed chronic kidney disease – a condition in which the kidneys gradually lose the ability to filter waste from the blood. This was more than double the risk of heart failure – where the heart can no longer pump blood effectively around the body. However, those who developed heart failure first faced a 42 per cent increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease within the next five years. Meanwhile, those who developed kidney damage first were 23 per cent more likely to develop heart failure over the same period. Taken together, the findings suggest that damage to the heart and kidneys may accelerate damage to other organs, creating a vicious cycle of declining health. Because the study was observational, the researchers stressed it cannot prove cause and effect. The head of clinical at Diabetes UK added: 'Heart failure and kidney disease are serious complications of type 2 diabetes, but they are not inevitable. 'This research is an important reminder of the value of understanding your risk of developing type 2 diabetes, getting an early diagnosis and access to the right care and treatment.'The findings add to growing evidence that the impact of type 2 diabetes extends far beyond blood sugar control alone. It comes following a series of studies linking type 2 diabetes with a number of deadly cancers, including breast, bowel and lung. Another study presented at the conference found women with the condition face a 22 per cent higher risk of cancer than those without, while men are 12 per cent more likely to develop the disease. The risk is most pronounced for obesity-related cancers, including kidney, pancreatic and liver. Previous research suggests cancer is now the leading cause of death among those with type 2 diabetes in Britain. But with an estimated nine in ten cases linked to excess weight, experts believe weight loss jabs like Wegovy and Mounjaro could help turn the tide on the diabetes epidemic. The drugs – originally developed to treat diabetes – are now used to help people lose excess weight, manage blood sugar, and prevent heart attacks.Research has also suggested they can cut the risk of kidney disease by 24 per cent. Chronic kidney disease is estimated to affect one in ten people worldwide, equivalent to about 850 million people. It is projected to become the fifth most common cause of death by 2050. It tends not to cause symptoms early on, but at a later stage unexplained weight loss, swollen ankles, hands or feet, shortness of breath, fatigue, itchy skin, muscle cramps, nausea and headaches can all be a sign of the disease. Separate analysis from the European pharmaceutical industry found type 2 diabetes currently costs the UK economy more than £3billion a year. Cardiovascular disease accounts for £2.6billion of this burden, while chronic kidney disease contributes a further £2.3billion.