Untying the Tiebreaker Scenarios, One More Time

Brad Penner, Mark J. Rebilas, Troy Taormina, Chris Jones-Imagn Images With one week to go in the regular season, the playoff field is nearly set in the National League, though it’s anything but settled in the American League, with two of the three division leaders — two different ones since I last checked in — ahead by just one game and those races spilling over into the battle for the third and final Wild Card spot. We’re not going to get any tiebreaker games due to the fun police and the playoff format change put into effect by the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, but it’s entirely possible a playoff spot — and perhaps even a division title — will be decided on the basis of MLB’s tiebreaker procedures. Since the situation is simpler in the NL, I’ll start there. The Brewers (98-58) lead the Dodgers (96-60) in the race for the top seed, and own the tiebreaker there on the basis of a 4-3 season series advantage. According to our Playoff Odds, as of Monday at 9 AM, the Braves (92-64) have just a 0.9% chance of bypassing either Milwaukee or Los Angeles. The Brewers — who have a magic number of one to clinch a first-round bye — finish out with a visit to the Phillies (86-70) before coming home to face the Cardinals (76-80), while the Dodgers host the Padres (87-69) for three and then travel to the Giants (62-90), with the Braves hosting the Reds (72-84) and then visiting the Marlins (76-80). The Padres have taken advantage of a soft spot in their schedule — series against the sub-.500 Nationals, Giants, Rockies, and Marlins, after taking two out of three from the Yankees — to win 13 out of their last 14 games. Not only did that push them past the Diamondbacks (now 82-74), whom they trailed by half a game before the start of the surge, but they’ve tied the Cubs (87-69) for the top NL Wild Card spot, with the Phillies a game behind them. The Phils have been phlailing lately, going 8-10 in September and failing to win a series since beating the Diamondbacks at the start of the month. Their slide gave the Braves enough room to clinch the NL East title on Sunday. Before turning to the grid involving the four NL teams battling for three Wild Card spots, here’s another look at the tiebreaking procedures: Head-to-head records: This is self-explanatory when it comes to two-team tiebreakers, and if they played an odd number of games against each other, which is currently the case if they’re in the same division, then no other steps will be necessary. If more than two teams are involved and they have identical records against each other, then the team with the best combined winning percentage against the other teams within the tie wins the tiebreaker. If it’s still relevant, the remaining two teams are untied by head-to-head records and on down the line. If more than two teams are involved and they do not have identical records against one another, but one team won its season series against each of the other teams, then that team takes the tiebreaker. Otherwise, it goes in order of combined winning percentage against the other teams they’re tied with, as above. One additional point to add in the event of a tie involving more than two teams: If it has implications for both a division race and a Wild Card race, the division tiebreaker is settled first, on the basis of head-to-head records. For example, if the Rangers and Astros tie atop the AL West and the White Sox finish with the same record but behind the Yankees and Red Sox, the Texas/Houston tiebreaker is settled first. Intradivision records: This one is relevant only for two situations — multi-team scenarios where the teams all have the same head-to-head records within the group, or for two Wild Card teams in different divisions. In the latter case, there’s still a good chance they played seven games against each other instead of six. Intraleague records: A team’s record against all three divisions in the same league. Last half of intraleague games: If a team has played 48 interleague games, then this would be decided based on their winning percentage over the last 57 (half of 114) games against teams in their own league. And if that doesn’t work… Last half of intraleague games plus one… or more, as needed: Under the above scenario, this would be decided based on their winning percentage over the last 58 intraleague games, then 59, 60, 61… as many as it takes. And now, the big board: NL Wild Card Contenders Team W-L CHC SDP PHI ARI Intra CHC 87-69 — 5-1 (0,0) 6-1 (0,0) 4-2 (0,0) 26-26 SDP 87-69 1-5 (0,0) — 0-6 (0,0) 5-5 (3,0) 28-18 PHI 86-70 1-6 (0,0) 6-0 (0,0) — 3-3 (0,0) 28-24 ARI 82-74 2-4 (0,0) 5-5 (0,3) 3-3 (0,0) — 28-18 Intra = intradivsion record. Yellow/Blue = clinched season series win/loss. Numbers in parentheses refer to remaining games at home and on road against a given opponent. The Cubs have a leg up on all of the other contenders here when it comes to the battle for the top Wild Card spot because they took the season series from each one. If they end up in any kind of tie, that advantage will be the difference between them playing the entire best-of-three series at Wrigley Field versus going on the road. The Padres are already on the short end of things with regards not only to the Cubs but also to the Phillies, with their series against the Diamondbacks hanging in the balance. San Diego hosts the Snakes at Petco Park over the regular season’s final weekend to determine who has the upper hand, though by then it may not matter.You Aren't a FanGraphs MemberIt looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:✓Ad-free browsing✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles✓Historical & platoon projections✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps✓One-click data exports✓Customizable player-page dashboards✓Dark & Classic site modes✓Weekly Members-only mailbag✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review✓Optional homepage photo removal✓Gift articles to non-members Since they split their season series, a Phillies-Diamondbacks tie would be based on intradivision records. Philadelphia doesn’t have any more games against NL East rivals remaining; they host the Brewers and Rays for three-game sets starting on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks, who travel to both Colorado and San Diego, need one more win to clinch the intradivision tiebreaker advantage, but realistically they need a lot more than that to improve their chances. Their Playoff Odds are down to 5.6%. Back to the Cubs, who host the Marlins for three and then visit the Red Sox (84-72). In the event of a four-team tiebreaker, Chicago would win because they beat all three other teams, and likewise for any three-way tiebreaker that involves them. If there’s any need to go further than that — say, if there were a three-way tie for the top Wild Card spot — after the Cubs it would come down to head-to-head and then intradivision records. A three-way tiebreaker not involving the Cubs would be decided first on combined head-to-head records within the group. Based on current records, the Phillies (.750, 9-3) would have the advantage over the Diamondbacks (.500, 8-8) and Padres (.313, 5-11), and once they’re untied from that knot, an Arizona-San Diego tiebreaker would still come down to head-to-head records. Turning to the American League, the Rays (95-60) own a six-game lead over the increasingly banged-up Yankees (89-66) — who will be without Aaron Judge for the rest of the regular season due and possibly longer, due to a right calf strain — in the AL East. The two teams have a four-game series in the Bronx starting with a doubleheader on Tuesday. Tampa Bay leads the season series 6-3; a single win would not only seal a potential tiebreaker, it would clinch the division title. Nobody’s going to catch the Rays for the number one seed, either. The Guardians (81-75) took two out of three from the White Sox (80-76) this past week in Cleveland to take over first place in the AL Central. That said, Chicago owns the 7-6 season series advantage for tiebreaking purposes and has the softer schedule ahead; the White Sox visit Kansas City (67-89) for three and then host Colorado (57-99), while Cleveland travels to Boston and then Kansas City for a pair of three-game series. Whichever team wins the AL Central will likely grab the second first-round bye; between the Guardians and White Sox, their odds of doing so are 97.3%. Meanwhile, the Rangers (78-78) are clinging to a one-game lead over the Astros (77-79), and yes, it’s entirely possible that the winner could be the majors’ first full-season sub-.500 playoff team. Houston won the season series 9-4 and therefore has the tiebreaker in the AL West, but for both teams, it’s all scoreboard-watching the rest of the way. The Astros are on the road against the Mariners (73-83) and A’s (61-95), while the Rangers host the Mets (71-85) for three before finishing with three in Minnesota (73-83). As for the AL Wild Card, we don’t need to mind the Yankees and Red Sox since they’ve clinched playoff berths and are more or less locked into their spots; one Yankees win or one Red Sox loss will sew up placement as the fourth and fifth seeds, with a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Series slated for the Bronx. For the big board below, I’m including the Guardians and Rangers since it won’t take much to bump either of them into a position where their tiebreakers matter. AL Wild Card Contenders Team W-L CLE CHW TEX HOU TOR Intra CLE* 81-75 — 6-7 2-4 2-4 2-4 27-22 CHW 80-76 7-6 — 4-2 2-5 5-1 31-18 TEX* 78-78 4-2 2-4 — 4-9 6-1 23-29 HOU 77-79 4-2 5-2 9-4 — 3-3 22-24 TOR 77-79 4-2 1-5 1-6 3-3 — 25-24 * = current division leader. Intra = intradivsion record. Yellow/Blue = clinched season series win/loss. Alas, with the Rangers and Blue Jays finishing their season series on Sunday, none of these teams will face each other again until October, so we’re left with the same four scenarios I outlined a couple of weeks ago, but with the division leads having changed hands. Scenario 1: Guardians and Rangers win their divisions If both division leaders maintain their spots, leaving the other three teams vying for the sixth seed, the Astros would have the advantage over the White Sox in a tiebreaker because they won their season series. Because the Astros and Blue Jays split their series, a tie between them would be broken based on intradivision records; right now, the Blue Jays have the advantage, but they have fewer such games remaining (three in Baltimore from Monday to Wednesday, with their final three at home against the Reds), while the Astros, as noted, have six to play against AL West rivals. If the two teams end up with the same intradivision records, the next step would be intraleague records; currently the Astros have the edge, with a .519 winning percentage (56-52) to the Blue Jays’ .495 (55-56). In the case of a three-way tie, the Astros would prevail, because they went 8-5 (.615) against the other two teams, while the White Sox went 7-6 (.538) and the Blue Jays 4-8 (.333). Scenario 2: White Sox and Rangers win their divisions This one would leave a three-team fray between the Astros, Guardians, and Blue Jays. The Astros won their season series against the Guardians, and a potential tie with the Blue Jays would be settled by intradivision or intraleague records as noted above. In a three-way tie involving combined head-to-head records, the Astros and Blue Jays would tie at .583 (7-5), leaving the Guardians (.333, 4-8) in the dust. The Astros/Blue Jays tiebreaker would then be settled as outlined above. Scenario 3: Guardians and Astros win their divisions If the Guardians hold onto their narrow one-game lead, the White Sox would still be in decent shape, as they took the season series from both the Blue Jays and Rangers, so in the event of a three-way tie, Chicago would claim the remaining Wild Card berth. Scenario 4: White Sox and Astros win their divisions The Rangers remain sandwiched between the Guardians and Blue Jays record-wise, but they have the tiebreaker advantage over both teams. Because they won their season series against both Cleveland and Toronto, in a three-way tie, they would come out on top. Undeniably, the situation in both leagues still leaves room for some suspense with regards to who will advance to October. Still, we can hope that as the players and owners hammer out the next CBA during what is likely to be a frigid winter on the labor front, they think long and hard about what’s been lost with the elimination of tiebreaker games. It’s much more fun rooting for chaos than for math.