Under Iranian fire, Jordan faces a balancing act ... and messaging challenge

As the United States and Iran escalate their conflict and the truce collapses, Iran is directing much of its fire not at Washington’s wartime partner Israel, but at one of its most reliable Arab partners: Jordan.Iranian forces struck U.S. military assets in Jordan on Tuesday for the fourth day in a row.Over the weekend, Iranian missiles killed two U.S. troops on a Jordanian airbase and targeted the kingdom’s lone port and an international airport in Aqaba. Why We Wrote This As U.S.-Iran fighting reignites, American ally Jordan, which hosts U.S. forces, has increasingly come under Iranian fire. Dependent on U.S. aid, but eager to avoid angering Iran or creating domestic concerns, it is choosing its words carefully. The attacks have thrust the kingdom into an ever-difficult balancing act, observers say. Jordan depends on U.S. military and economic support and remains one of Washington's most reliable allies while it downplays that coordination to offset public anger over U.S. Middle East policy and Israel’s war in Gaza. At the same time it stresses to Iran it’s not party to the war.Since the ceasefire began to crumble, with exchanges of fire over shipping though the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has spared Jordan’s neighbor Israel, which joined with the U.S. in launching the war against Tehran.Iran’s missiles are disrupting Jordan’s economy. But Jordan’s leadership has shown no indication of lessening the country’s military and economic reliance on the U.S. or retaliating against Iran.“The U.S. partnership is a matter of Jordanian sovereignty,” says Jawad Anani, a former Jordanian foreign minister. “But we don’t want Jordan to be an arena of conflict between Iran, Israel, or anyone else. And we have told the Iranians this a hundred times.”Yet in messaging to its citizens, the Jordanian government has said little about the Iran war, its security ties with the U.S., and the location and severity of Iranian strikes on Jordanian soil.Annual U.S. assistance to Jordan has increased from $450 million in 2003 to a record $2 billion in 2026.American military personnel and hardware are present on Jordanian military bases owned and operated by the Jordan Armed Forces; there are no American-run military bases in Jordan. James Feehan, one of two U.S. military personnel killed in Iranian attacks on Jordan on July 18, 2026, is shown in this handout photo released by the U.S. Army and obtained by Reuters on July 21, 2026. Since the first round of U.S.-Iran fighting, additional U.S. military personnel shifted from Gulf Arab states to Jordan, The New York Times reported.“We are not [at the outset] protecting Israel or attacking Iran, and it is not our interest to enter a war,” says Jordanian political analyst Nabeel Ghishan.“But at the same time, we cannot retaliate against Iran, and collectively the Gulf and Jordan cannot pressure the U.S. to enter negotiations. We are stuck in the middle.”In press statements, Jordanian officials say missiles in its airspace – Iranian or otherwise – are a violation of Jordanian sovereignty. Yet its careful messaging has left the Jordanian public largely unaware and unprepared should the war escalate.U.S. security tiesSince King Abdullah II ascended to the throne in 1999, Jordan has been a key facilitator for U.S. military operations across the region, codified in the 2021 U.S.-Jordan Defense Cooperation Agreement.Jordan served as a critical logistics hub for the U.S. military invasion and occupation of neighboring Iraq from 2003-2010 and for anti-terror operations.From 2014 to 2020, Jordanian airbases served as the headquarters and launching pad for the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria.Prior to the U.S.-Iran war, there were some 3,000 U.S. troops on Jordanian soil, according to the Biden administration. Left over from anti-ISIS operations, they were largely based at an airbase in eastern Jordan.While Jordan has, over the years, faced blowback for its ties to America, with several Al Qaeda and ISIS attacks, the Iran war is drawing Jordan into regional conflict more than ever before.Despite multiple requests, Jordanian officials refused to comment for this story, saying they are not accepting interviews and directing The Monitor to official statements.Yet the war has clearly impacted local thinking about the kingdom’s position.“For Arab states, there is no alternative to the U.S. as our main ally and security partner,” says Mr. Ghishan, the analyst. “But America has left Jordan exposed. Arab states must re-evaluate their alliance and partnership with the U.S.”Jordanians’ viewAlthough Jordanians generally oppose Israel, Iran’s archfoe, this does not necessarily translate into support for Iran.“America started this war with Iran on behalf of Israel to support the Israeli project of expansion and occupation in the region,” says Mohammed, an Amman shopkeeper who withheld his full name for fear of legal repercussions. “Iran wants to control this region, too. As Jordanians, what does this war have to do with us? It’s not our war.” Lenin Nolly/NurPhoto/AP/File U.S. President Donald Trump greets King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein of Jordan and Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah before holding a bilateral meeting in the West Portico of the White House, in Washington, February 11, 2025. Suspicions over Iran’s intentions in Jordan and among Palestinians take on political, ethnic, and religious dimensions in Jordan, home to 95% Sunni Muslims. There is no sizeable Shiite population, which comprise the majority in Iran.“We saw Iran slaughter Sunni Muslims in Syria and Iraq. We have seen them try to infiltrate the Gulf. And now they wish to bully Jordan,” says Mohammed Abdullatif, a Jordan Valley farmer who describes himself as an “independent patriot.”“We can disagree about the government’s foreign policy. We don’t like American policy. We want an end to Israeli domination. But Iran is a direct threat to our safety and lives,” he adds.“Those who have allied to the U.S. have seen progress, technology, and growth,” says Odeh, a coffee barista in Amman who withheld his full name. “What has the Iranian axis ever offered? Militias, mafias, nonfunctioning states, and death.”Narrative vacuumComplicating Jordan’s response is that, unlike Gulf states, the government has not clearly depicted Iranian attacks as a threat to the kingdom or prepared its population for war, Jordanian analysts say.Instead, the government has downplayed the war’s impact, depicting daily life as normal and the stability of the kingdom as unaffected.On Sunday, minutes after the U.S. Embassy issued a warning to American citizens that Jordanian authorities had evacuated the Aqaba port and airport due to a “credible threat,” Jordan denied it.Less than an hour later, Iranian ballistic missiles were intercepted above the sites.It marks a stark contrast to Jordan’s approach to the fight against ISIS a decade ago, when it united the country against the extremist group. It held mass rallies against ISIS, participated in the U.S.-led coalition, and explained clearly to its citizens why hosting U.S. and European militaries was necessary.“What are you going to do? Keep on denying” U.S. military cooperation and the Iranian threat, asks Amer al-Sabaileh, a Jordanian analyst. “You have to have Jordanians … feel and understand the risk they are facing.”Iran, for its purposes, is trying to fill that narrative void.Late Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps thanked “the people and military personnel of Jordan” for “fulfilling a religious duty,” ostensibly for supplying information enabling the lethal precision strikes on U.S. forces at Jordan’s Azraq base.Multiple Gulf and Western security sources and Jordanian analysts discount the statement as propaganda. But it stirred controversy and suspicion on Jordanian social media.“Without clearly communicating, day by day, the government creates an internal vacuum. … This allows Iran to mobilize Jordanians and talk directly to Jordanians,” warns Mr. Sabaileh.This leaves Jordan caught between Iran and the U.S.“Right now, Jordan is walking on a knife’s edge in between two fires,” says Mr. Ghishan.