UN climate summit opens in Turkey with modest goals

The annual United Nations conference to address a warming planet opens in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday in a world where the climate has changed dramatically – as has the climate for climate policy.Despite world leaders coming together a decade ago at the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP) to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (with the goal of limiting to 1.5 degrees Celsius), enthusiasm for what has long been climate change’s biggest meeting for action has slumped to a shrug. For this meeting, the 31st such conference, or COP31, the international appetite for grand compromises or promises is at its weakest point since 2015, when the French foreign minister pounded his green gavel to mark the Paris Agreement and the Eiffel Tower was lit up green in celebration.“It’s not a coincidence that at the moment climate harms are affecting communities in really real ways, and affecting governments’ budgets in really real ways, it becomes harder to make progress on climate mitigation,” says Cara Horowitz, executive director of the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the University of California Los Angeles School of Law, who will be in Turkey for her 10th COP. The ongoing wars in Iran and Ukraine have driven up oil and gas prices around the world and made affordability the prevailing political issue. Here in the United States, soaring costs – including at the gas pump – were the winning issue for Democrats in last week’s midterm elections, with (in a big shift from just a few years ago) little to no focus on climate policy. Europe, which has long had some of the strongest climate commitments, has walked back some of its own goals over the past year.This comes on top of longstanding frustrations with the COP process itself, which peaked at last year’s conference in Brazil and led some countries to form alternative, outside negotiating groups. And then there’s “climate fatigue” – the emotional exhaustion that many people feel from constant and dire warnings on climate change – that has swept the world.All of these factors pose challenges for climate officials to recognize geopolitical realities and still find wins, albeit perhaps smaller ones, in Turkey this week. Rajesh Kumar Singh/AP/FileResidents carry belongings salvaged from their damaged homes in the aftermath of flooding in Devighat, in Nepal's Nuwakot district, Aug. 29, 2026. After more than three decades of these conferences, dire forecasts and broken records continue. August brought the world’s hottest month on record as well as a catastrophic avalanche collapse in Nepal, all while a potentially record-setting El Niño pushed ocean temperatures to a record high. And according to a September report from the U.N., the Paris Agreement, COP’s landmark success, has failed. Global temperatures will likely rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels within the next few years. With that target missed, global efforts now can only work toward minimizing the overshoot.At this point, if countries achieve “full implementation of all current nationally determined contributions,” the world is still on track to warm 2.6 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, according to an October U.N. Emissions Gap Report.Now, advocates, scientists, and governments face “the unenviable task,” says Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, of explaining to the public that even though a global goal has been missed, limiting every tenth of a degree of warming still matters. “Some parts of the [climate] movement might start losing hope, and say ‘Well now we can’t do anything.’” Francisco Seco/AP/FileWaiters stand to invite passersby to a restaurant as water is sprayed to cool the area on a hot day in Istanbul, Turkey, June 11, 2026. Some climate scientists have long said that the goal of a 1.5-degree warming limit was unrealistic, even before President Donald Trump retook the White House. Still, his presidency – and his administration’s policies – have seemingly changed the Earth. The U.N.’s 2026 warming estimate increased by 0.3 degrees over last year’s findings, which the report partially attributes to the U.S. abandoning its climate promises, including Mr. Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. America remains the only signatory nation to exit the agreement.Over the past two years, the second Trump administration has moved further from the climate accords, deregulating the oil and gas industry, canceling renewable energy projects, and revoking the “endangerment finding,” which allowed the government to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.“Things actually are harder to accomplish internationally when the U.S. is not only not at the table, but they are also trying to deconstruct the table that everyone is gathered around,” says Ms. Horowitz. “If the world’s largest historic emitter is simply not contributing, other countries might not feel the need to contribute. They might feel like chumps.” Something like the Paris Agreement, in which each country submits its own action plan, falls apart without the participation of the U.S., the world’s biggest historic polluter. Salvador Melendez/APSalvadoran farmer Raul Figueroa walks through a dried-up cornfield amid a drought in Tecoluca, El Salvador, part of the Central American Dry Corridor, Oct. 14, 2026. Without U.S. commitments or leadership, COP31 may usher in more modest agreements among smaller blocs of countries – a shift many climate policy experts have long argued is needed. Because official U.N. climate summits require unanimous agreement, a small number of oil-producing nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, were able to block progress on a global fossil fuel phaseout at COP30 in Brazil. In response, nearly 60 nations bypassed the traditional veto system entirely, meeting in Colombia to form a “coalition of the willing” dedicated to transitioning away from fossil fuels.“The tough reality is that there’s been a feeling in a lot of corners that the COP process has exhausted itself,” says Josh Freed, senior vice president for the climate and energy program at the think tank Third Way. There’s disillusionment, from the difficulty of getting real agreements to the choices of conference location to the “almost trade-show atmosphere,” says Mr. Freed, happening outside the negotiations.With low expectations for COP31, this conference could still yield successes, Mr. Freed notes. These might include new leadership from countries other than the U.S. or practical oil and gas agreements that address global energy insecurity.For COP31 to have any success, says Mr. Freed, leaders need to not “operate in a world you wish existed, but doesn’t.” Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. Murat Kurum, Turkey’s minister of environment, urbanization, and climate change and COP31’s president, seems to have already adopted a similar mindset. He has framed this year’s conference as one focused on implementation, rather than big, flashy promises.“What the world wants is to see past decisions put into practice,” says Mr. Kurum. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.