Ukraine’s Satellite Disruption Exposes a Central Risk of Modern Warfare

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claimed over the weekend that the Ukrainian military had “violated” the terms of service for Starlink, the company’s commercial satellite internet network, which has become central to the country’s defense against Russia. Musk said SpaceX had restricted Starlink to prevent that alleged misuse. Ukrainian officials disputed his claim. His allegation came after over a week of uncertainty about why the services had been restricted. Ukrainian officials reported on Oct. 14 that restrictions affecting SpaceX’s satellite communications were disrupting drone operations, blocking a key line of defense amid daily Russian air attacks. Ukraine relies heavily on Starlink for frontline communications, drone capabilities, and reconnaissance; the throttled connection ultimately led to the cancellation of several missions, officials said. The restrictions also affected Starshield, a military-grade satellite communications service that uses Starlink technology but is supplied through U.S. government contracts. Over a week after the disruption began, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on Oct. 24 that both services had been fully restored. It reported that connections remained stable even when terminals were moving at speeds above 400 km/h.At the time, the cause for the interruption had not yet been clarified, but Defense Minister Yevheniy Khmara emphasized the importance of a strong and stable connection, calling it “vital for our front line, for our military personnel, for the operation of drones, and for logistics and communications.”Musk maintains that the United States government controls changes to Starshield, leaving questions about who authorized its restrictions—and why. U.S. President Donald Trump declined to identify those involved in the decision, while a Reuters report from Oct. 15 cited multiple officials who said the order came from inside the White House. The sources did not identify who authorized or implemented the restrictions, but a senior U.S. official denied that it was Trump, the report said.Experts say that the disruptions expose a growing vulnerability in modern warfare: military reliance on a single private technology supplier. The company that controls the technology can ultimately wield significant influence over military operations, leaving governments dependent on decisions made by executives and billionaire owners outside traditional diplomatic channels, experts warn.Why U.S. control of Starshield matters for UkraineUkraine’s access to satellite communications depends on decisions made in Washington as well as at SpaceX. That leaves Kyiv navigating both a private supplier’s restrictions and a fraught relationship with the Trump Administration.In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for rising global fuel prices and called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop those attacks—despite the fact that experts have primarily attributed the price surge to the U.S. war with Iran. Trump said on Oct. 15 that Zelensky was “more difficult to deal with” than Russian President Vladimir Putin and on Oct. 19 suggested that it was “time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.”Alex Crowther, an adjunct professor at Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, says the Starshield dispute goes beyond Trump’s souring relationship with Zelensky to a more basic question: Who has the authority to restrict Ukraine’s access?“Usually when [a foreign entity] signs a contract with an American company, it says who has the capability to turn this stuff on and off, and the circumstances under which they can turn it on and off,” Crowther says, questioning who has that authority over the services Ukraine relies upon. “Is it Starlink, which is private, or is it Starshield, which is an American government contract? Is it Musk? Is it Hegseth? Is it Trump?”“Nobody knows the rules right now,” he says.Lance Hunter, a professor of political science at Augusta University, tells TIME that this dispute exposes the potential issues of having three different actors—the Trump Administration, SpaceX, and Ukraine—with potentially incompatible priorities.How dependence on SpaceX limits Ukraine’s military autonomyHunter says that what is unfolding in Ukraine underscores warfare’s growing dependence on digital technology. Beyond traditional “tanks, bombs, planes,” he says that includes factors like artificial intelligence, drones, and navigation jamming.Reliance on ongoing technology services creates a different relationship from a traditional arms purchase, Hunter says.He points to traditional arms deals in which a private company sells a government a set amount of missiles or interceptors.“Let's say you purchase a piece of weaponry or vehicle or any type of object that helps you in the conflict: You own it at that point. You have control over it,” Hunter tells TIME. The relationship between Ukraine and SpaceX, however, is different; purchasing the technology does not guarantee operational sovereignty. “Ukraine has a lot of transmitters which interface with Starshield and Starlink, and they're very much dependent on SpaceX as far as allowing them to use those when they need to,” Hunter continues. “There's not just a one-time dependence buying the technology; it's continual now.”That gives the company more “influence and leverage” over conflicts than it has before, he adds.It shifts the way that countries like Ukraine need to think about who they are willing to work with and how they weigh the potential costs. Why Ukraine cannot easily replace Starlink and StarshieldIn a perfect world, Hunter says, Ukraine would diversify its technology suppliers to decrease reliance on Starlink. The country has already been expanding its domestic weapons production, including interceptor drones. But it remains dependent on foreign suppliers for critical air-defense weapons like the U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles.That dependence has left it vulnerable to shortages and delays. On Oct. 26, Zelensky said Ukraine had been waiting nearly a month for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to approve supplies of missiles for its Patriot and NASAMS air-defense systems.But replicating satellite communications networks presents a different challenge. Starlink technology is not something a government can easily reproduce domestically, Hunter says, and few providers worldwide offer comparable capabilities.“Starlink has a monopoly on that technology to a degree, as far as the speed, the availability, the flexibility,” he says. “It's not like they can just flip a switch and diversify that technology. It takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of resources. It takes a lot of effort, and also in Europe we don't see that same level of technology with some of the European countries and also with some of the private companies.” In the end, he says that Ukraine is stuck between “a rock and a hard place” as the country tries to negotiate its relationships with the Trump Administration and, separately, with Musk.“You're reliant on the politics of those bodies all matching up,” he says of Ukraine. “All of a sudden, you kind of lose that autonomy.”“If they really push back against the U.S. government or SpaceX, they have the potential of receiving less of the technology and being cut off to a greater extent,” he adds. “But if they don't really push at all and advocate for their interest as well, then they could be in a weaker position as far as having leverage exerted over them.”Why Ukraine disputes Musk’s Starlink claimsIn a social media post on Oct. 24, Musk said that SpaceX had restricted Starlink access deliberately because Ukraine's military violated Starlink's terms of service by using the civilian satellite network for offensive drone strikes.“Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week,” Musk said in one post. “Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be.”Musk explained that Starlink continues to be “critical to the defense of Ukraine,” but that it could not be used for offensive military operations.Ukrainian officials promptly disputed Musk’s claims.Defense technology adviser Serhii Beskrestnov wrote in a Telegram post that operational and speed restrictions are in place that make it “physically impossible” for the military to use Starlink for medium- or deep-range offensive strikes.“It is very strange that Elon Musk is unaware of the operational limitations of Starlink in Ukraine,” he wrote. “Starlink does not function over the territory of Russia.”