Ukraine’s Inflation Hits 11% as Russian Strikes, Middle East War Push Prices Up

Ukraine’s prices have accelerated, with double-digit inflation for the second consecutive month in October, as the economy faced pressure from Russian summer strikes on large civilian businesses and persistent high oil prices caused by the Middle East war, the State Statistics Service reported Nov. 10. Ukraine’s consumer inflation rose 1.8% in October compared with September, continuing its rise from the sharpest annual increase this year, pushing annual consumer inflation to double digits at 11%.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and administratively regulated prices, also jumped 1.4% on the month, accelerating to 9.7% year-on-year from 8.8% in September. Ukraine’s central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) previously attributed the dynamics primarily to direct and second-round effects of the fuel price surge caused by the war in the Middle East, as well as Russia’s intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s warehousing and logistics infrastructure. Local authorities keep increasing water tariffs, which also fuels inflation. Water supply is now 106.5% more expensive than a year ago and sewerage costs 99.3% higher, up from 87.6% and 83.1%. Electricity and natural gas tariffs remained unchanged due to administrative restrictions. The State Statistics Service published its latest report on Tuesday. Graph by Olena Hrazhdan / Kyiv Post Other Topics of Interest Italy’s 13th Ukraine Aid Package Stalls Over 1 Signature Italy’s League opposes more weapons for Kyiv, but Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani says the missing signature is a procedural issue. Food prices keep accelerating after a summer rest Food inflation, which cooled over the summer as the new harvest came in, is picking up again. Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 2.0% in October compared with September, while their annual rate accelerated to 9.3%. The reversal of food prices’ downward trend is seen in annual figures. Vegetables rose 10.1% on the month in annual terms and sugar climbed 12.3%. Bread and bread products became 21.3% more expensive than a year ago. Sunflower oil also accelerated to 20% year-over-year while fish and fish products rose 23.6% on the year, the fastest annual increase in the food basket. The comments in the report do not point whether the food price acceleration was also caused by Russian strikes. However, food retail is among the key victims of the summer’s wave of Russian strikes against the food supply chains. Fuel keeps pulling logistics costs higher Apart from Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s warehousing and logistics infrastructure, inflation is fueled by direct and second-round effects of the fuel price surge caused by the war in the Middle East. October statistics report showed that fuel remains the category where pressure shows no sign of easing. Fuel and lubricants were 53.9% more expensive than a year ago, compared with 46.2% a month earlier. The rise in prices carried through to transport as a whole, which cost 30.1% more year-on-year, increasing from 26.9% in September. Transport services separately became 40.6% higher than a year ago, up from 38.4% – a reflection of a wave of rising transport fares around Ukraine in response to more expensive fuel. Road passenger fares increased to 43.7% annually. Railway fares were 21.7% more expensive, rising faster than the 16.5% recorded a month earlier. Olena Hrazhdan is the Business Reporter at Kyiv Post, covering Ukraine’s markets, business, and economic policy. While she reports broadly on economic issues, her core focus is banking, finance, monetary and fiscal policy. Olena previously wrote for leading Ukrainian business media and became a Fellow of the International Monetary Fund’s Journalism Fellowship in 2024.