Ukraine's deep strikes in Russia reshape Trump-Zelenskyy war dynamic

Ukraine has expanded deep strikes inside Russia and Russian-held territory while hitting oil, air defence and military targets. The campaign has raised pressure on Moscow and improved Volodymyr Zelenskyy's standing with Donald Trump, even as the wider war remains uncertain.Image used for representational purposes onlyUkraine has stepped up long-range strikes inside Russia and in Russian-held areas in a campaign that has helped change the tone of its ties with US President Donald Trump, months after a public clash between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. Kyiv has increased attacks on oil sites, air defences, defence factories and retail warehouses as it tries to show that Russia cannot keep the war at a distance from ordinary Russians.The shift appears to have changed some of the conversation in Washington, with Trump saying at a NATO summit in July that Zelenskyy had "been very effective" in the war and that "We've actually developed a good relationship". But Ukraine still faces serious pressure from intensifying Russian strikes, shortages of US Patriot air defence missiles and uncertainty over whether its campaign can force President Vladimir Putin towards talks.At their Oval Office meeting in February 2025, Trump sharply rebuked Zelenskyy in front of reporters, saying, "Your country is in big trouble. You're not winning," and adding, "You don't have the cards." After that confrontation, the Ukrainian delegation was asked to leave the White House, and Washington briefly suspended intelligence sharing with Kyiv. In the months that followed, as Russia made slow gains on the battlefield, Trump warmly hosted Putin in Alaska and appeared ready to press Ukraine into a peace deal on unfavourable terms, including giving up territory. But even during that period, Ukraine was preparing an operation that later used drones smuggled into Russia to strike Russian bombers and damage or destroy aircraft worth hundreds of millions of dollars.According to data from ACLED, an independent conflict monitor, Ukraine launched three times as many longer-range strikes in July as it did in January. An Associated Press analysis of hundreds of Ukrainian attacks this year found that many were aimed at four broad types of targets: oil infrastructure, defence manufacturing, air defences and radar, and retail warehouses. Kyiv says it struck Russia's largest oil refinery, more than 2,500 kilometres from Ukraine. It also hit a factory making navigation systems several times, including with its Flamingo missile. In July and August, Ukraine struck Wildberries warehouses, saying the company helps supply the Russian military, a claim Moscow denies. Many attacks on air defences and radar have been around Russian-held Crimea, often using drones. Maj. Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, who leads Ukraine's drone war, said strikes in Crimea are also meant to make the peninsula unusable as a staging ground for Russian forces. The attacks have had visible effects inside Russia. Ukrainian drone strikes sent thick smoke over St Petersburg shortly before the opening of an international economic forum in June. Russian authorities also scaled down the May 9 military parade marking the defeat of Nazi Germany because of concern over Ukrainian attacks. Strikes on oil refineries have contributed to a summer fuel crisis.Russia, however, has also intensified its own strikes. Ukraine's ability to defend itself has been strained by shortages of American Patriot missiles. The United Nations said 1,396 civilians were killed in Ukraine in the first six months of the year. It said Russian authorities reported 250 civilians killed in the same period. On Monday, a strike that Ukraine said hit an oil refinery in Russia killed 13 people, according to local officials. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the London-based RUSI think tank, said Ukraine's attacks are aimed at undermining the idea that Russia can afford to "just let this roll". He said the outcome depends on how much pain Ukraine can impose. "Logically, above a certain threshold, it does work but whether they can reach that threshold is an interesting question," he said, adding that this also depends partly on factors beyond Kyiv's control, including continued European financial support.Ukraine also has an operational advantage through Elon Musk's Starlink satellite communications service, which lets its operators control drones in real time in Russian-held Ukrainian territory. Russia has been blocked from using Starlink. But Brovdi said Russia is building its own version and installing jamming systems that affect Starlink connectivity. It is not always clear how effective all of Ukraine's strikes are. In May and June, Ukraine said it hit several satellite, reconnaissance or signals intelligence facilities in Russia, but satellite images reviewed by AP did not show major damage.Even before the Oval Office meeting, Ukraine had started investing heavily in new weapons, but a European military official said that moment was "a real wake-up call" because it showed that US support could be stopped "from one day to the next". Ukraine then expanded production, increased the range of weapons it makes and shortened development cycles from decades to years or even months. Even so, it still cannot produce as many missiles as it needs. Watling said Ukraine also needed time to develop systems accurate enough for deep strikes inside Russia. He added that although Ukraine has begun fixing navigational problems with missiles such as the Flamingo, they are still not as accurate or as hard to detect as Western equivalents. That often means firing hundreds of drones to overwhelm Russian air defences so that a missile can get through. Watling said only 5 per cent to 9 per cent of what Ukraine fires gets past Russian air defences.Ukraine says this effort has moved the fight from a stalled battlefield to the sky, even if the larger result remains uncertain. At the NATO summit, Zelenskyy suggested that Putin is "losing the initiative" in the war. When Trump asked whether he would accept Moscow as a venue for peace talks, as Putin has suggested, Zelenskyy replied: "There are a lot of Ukrainian drones in the air. It would be dangerous."With PTI Inputs- EndsPublished By: India Today Web Desk Published On: Aug 11, 2026 13:52 IST