Ukraine – What Is Fedorov Thinking?

The big news today is former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov calling for elections in Ukraine. To be honest – I did not see that coming, and struggle with his logic.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. First things first, the main reason elections have not been held is that it’s just so hard to hold them in conditions of war, with millions outside the country, millions displaced internally and hundreds of thousands of troops on the front lines. Plus, how do you deal with populations in occupied territories? And how do you make the process secure from a physical point of view, let alone cybersecurity – remembering the travails over the Romanian presidential elections recently. I just don’t see how they can be secure. And remember here, the UK did not hold elections for the duration of the Second World War. Second, the opinion polls I have seen don’t suggest a great clamor for elections – some two-thirds don’t seem to be supportive, understanding of the challenges. Third, this would involve a huge diversion of resources needed elsewhere – to guarantee security and fight the war. Fourth, elections will likely just accentuate divisions in Ukrainian society – to be exploited by Putin, which is why Putin is pushing for them. And even Federov raising the issue now will signal division. Yes, Russia holds elections, but sham elections where only officially backed parties can run, as we saw this week with the barring of Yabloko from running in State Duma elections. Other Topics of Interest Verkhovna Rada Approves Sybiha as Foreign Minister With 266 Votes Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada has reapproved Andriy Sybiha as foreign minister after he briefly served as acting minister during the government reshuffle. All this raises the question as to why Fedorov is raising this issue. Is it because he is close to Trump’s tech bro buddies, like Elon Musk, who have been pushing the Kremlin narrative around elections in Ukraine? Is it because of his own political ambitions and a desire to take advantage of the momentum he gained during his ousting as defense minister? But I have to say it feels like an extraordinary political error of judgment, which some would likely use against him if he ever pitches in to run as president in the future. It looks a bit like political suicide from Fedorov. Reprinted from the author’s tashecon blog. See the original here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. Timothy Ash Timothy Ash is a London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist for Bluebay Asset Management Company.