Ukraine Talks in Abu Dhabi: Europe Sidelined

Talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives mediated by the US began in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. As a first step the two countries agreed on a new prisoner exchange. US President Trump had held out the prospect of a “very major” agreement that could affect “the whole of Europe”. Although a European delegation is present, it is not sitting at the table – prompting a lively discussion among commentators. Torn between head and heartJOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The Europeans face a moral dilemma, Der Tagesspiegel (Germany) puts in: “Their hearts tell them that the war in Ukraine should be brought to an end. Their heads, however, warn that if this happens on the wrong terms and Putin is able to claim a victory, he will feel all the more emboldened to restore Moscow’s former sphere of influence, including the three former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are now members of the EU and Nato. Europe’s fate hinges on the outcome of the talks. But the Europeans are not sitting at the negotiating table. They’ve only been invited as observers.” Eating humble pie The EU has only itself to blame for being sidelined in the negotiations, Kurier (Austria) writes: “As yet another round of talks on peace in Ukraine get underway, Europe must either settle for a bit-part or simply wait in the wings. ... However bitter this lesson may be, Europe would do well to take it to heart. A despotic dictator like Putin who has long been fighting not only for Ukraine, but also for his own political survival, knows only the logic of brute force. That does not mean that we should have gone to war against Russia; rather, we should have consistently deployed the economic weapons at Europe’s disposal from the very outset. Meaning: sanctions minus the loopholes.” Other Topics of Interest Russia Bridge Collapse: No Rail Connections to Komi Republic The bridge collapse derailed multiple train wagons, but the cause remains unclear. Russia must suffer a defeat Political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov doesn’t see much chance of a good outcome in a Telegram post (Russia) republished by Echo: “The question of Europe’s involvement in the negotiations to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not trivial, but a central issue. … Russia is prepared to talk to Europe exclusively within the framework of the agenda set out in Lavrov’s January 2022 statement [calling on Nato to refrain from further eastward expansion and withdraw weapons from Eastern Europe]. Can Moscow be persuaded to abandon this position? Undoubtedly, but first Russia must suffer that inglorious strategic defeat: either on the battlefield or in the economy. And to achieve that, we must either flood Ukraine with offensive weapons or, at the very least, stop buying Russian oil – or, as a last resort, coordinate with China.” Acid test for Ukraine’s sovereignty Yevhen Perelyhin, Ukraine’s former ambassador to Italy, writes in Ukrainska Pravda (Ukraine): “The question is whether Ukraine remains a fully-fledged player in international politics, capable of determining its own foreign and security policy, choosing its alliances, and obtaining real – rather than merely declaratory – security guarantees. Because otherwise, the negotiations run the risk of resulting in an agreement on terms under which the aggressor can continue to pursue its objectives by other means. ... Behind the formula of ‘eliminating the root causes of the conflict’ lies Moscow’s endeavour to restore its sphere of influence and to reach an agreement with the US on a new European security architecture in which Ukraine is assigned the role of a bargaining chip.” Moscow won’t let up Kauppalehti (Finland) sees no indication that Russia will fundamentally change its policy: “One must not forget that Russia is waging war on two fronts: in Ukraine and in cyberspace against the whole of Europe. If past experience is anything to go by the cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns will intensify when crucial elections are held across Europe next year. Moscow’s aim is to undermine the stability of European societies, weaken their cohesion and thereby erode support for Ukraine. Even the end of the war would not guarantee an end to Russian imperialism.” Progress despite hurdles Le Temps (Switzerland) sees a glimmer of hope: “Although the EU was excluded from the trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US in Abu Dhabi, Russia has acknowledged the possibility of a future agreement with the EU. Another significant development is the emergence of small steps forward, such as the humanitarian ceasefire in Oleshky, which marks the longest localised pause in fighting since the invasion began in 2022. Different approaches to peace – via force and military victory on the one hand, or compromise and negotiations on the other – are constantly clashing, each with their own logic and supporters. The way forward is always a delicate balance between the two.”