Ukraine peace momentum builds, but Russia sticks to its guns

Moscow | Oct. 29, 2026, 3:33 p.m. ET | 4 min read Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, under U.S. mediation, are set to resume in November after a long hiatus. And not coincidentally, there’s a new peace proposal in play.The new plan, put forward by the United States though only known from unofficial media leaks, is bringing life to the long-stalled peace process, Russian analysts say.Another opportunity to reach a new level of U.S.-Russia concord may come later in November, when Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia, Xi Jinping of China, and Donald Trump of the U.S. have agreed to hold an unprecedented three-way summit in China to discuss global problems. Further, U.S. first lady Melania Trump has arranged a local ceasefire that promises to relieve the plight of the inhabitants of Oleshky. The Dnieper River town, held by Russian forces, has been cut off and starved by months of ruthless drone and mine warfare. The truce will enable the townspeople to evacuate to either Russian or Ukrainian territory as they choose and could serve as a model for other besieged areas.So with all the peace in the air, why isn’t anyone cheering?Despite these positive developments, when viewed from Moscow, the nearly five-year-old war is only intensifying. Most Russian analysts say the two sides are still too far apart to reach a settlement. They add that it is good that the sides are talking, though they have begun to argue – as has the Kremlin – that Europe needs to have a seat at the talks as well. And for now, they say, any changes will come through developments on the battlefield, which they insist favor Russia in the long run. ReutersPlumes of smoke rise from fires at an oil refinery following what the authorities say is a Ukrainian drone strike in Moscow, Sept. 20, 2026. The war grinds onThe Kremlin appears to see no letup in the war. There are daily reports of civilian casualties deep inside Russia from Ukrainian drone strikes aimed at refineries, military plants, and airfields. Russia launches ever-increasing, around-the-clock barrages of drones and ballistic missiles at a wide range of Ukrainian infrastructure targets including, for the first time, the vital bridges across the Dnieper River that connect the eastern and western halves of the country. At the same time, Mr. Trump has made a change of direction, opening the prospect for Russia to emerge from years of a sanctions-enforced diplomatic deep freeze and to normalize relations with the U.S. There are alluring economic options on the table, including sweeping sanctions relief and a resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe via a revived Nord Stream pipeline, now with a U.S. stakeholder. These and other potential deals have reportedly been under discussion between Kremlin emissary Kirill Dmitriev and Mr. Trump’s team.The United States peace deal’s elements reportedly include strong U.S. security assurances for postwar Ukraine, a chance for it to join the European Union but not NATO, and a demilitarized zone (rather than Russian occupation) to incentivize Kyiv to withdraw from the roughly 15% of the Donbas that it still controls. There is also an investment package to help reconstruct both sides of the country, which would utilize Russian funds frozen in Western banks.But the deal is still likely unappealing to both sides, Russian analysts say.“The U.S. is proposing many things, but some are unacceptable for Russia. And some are unacceptable to the Europeans, who determine Ukraine’s position,” says Dmitry Suslov, an expert at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.Mr. Suslov says that Moscow views the economic incentives being dangled by the U.S. as meant to entice Russia to make territorial compromises, but Moscow is unlikely to relent on its demand for the entire Donbas. On the other side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in recent days has made clear that “despite Ukraine’s worsening military and economic position, they still refuse to withdraw from the Donbas.” In a weekend interview, Mr. Zelenskyy ruled out any adoption of neutral status for Ukraine – long Russia’s core demand – and rejected any restrictions on the size and capacities of Ukraine’s armed forces.New parties to talksReversing a previous Russian position, top Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said on Sunday that Russia now favors European involvement in future Ukraine peace talks. The tactic of sidelining Europe in favor of working with the U.S. has not succeeded, because Mr. Trump has proven incapable of enforcing his decisions on Europe and Ukraine. To reach a settlement, “It’s not enough to talk only to Kyiv; we need to talk to the whole of Europe, which fully supports Kyiv,” he said. ReutersPolice officers work at a site of a Russian drone strike on the North Bridge in Kyiv, Ukraine, Oct. 4, 2026. Mr. Suslov says that since “the Europeans are sabotaging everything that Russia and the U.S. agree on, it’s clear that no decision can be reached without European agreement. Europe is a party to the war, and on that basis they should participate in the talks.”That could be harder than it looks, he adds. “Europe can’t agree among itself on the terms it would promote or who would represent it in these talks. It’s not ready.”The tentative plan for a three-way summit between Russian, U.S., and Chinese leaders on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in China next month has evoked echoes of conferences during World War II, such as Yalta, in which Allied leaders mapped out a postwar global order. Russian analysts say their expectations for this meeting are far more modest. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. “I don’t think such a summit will be about Ukraine. They will discuss bigger issues, such as nuclear security, climate change, AI,” says Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information, a Moscow-based consultancy.“But any projects they agree on will be long-term and take time to develop. It’s good that they’ll be talking, but all we should expect to come out of this are some general statements,” and nothing that would be game-changing, he says. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.