Ukraine Oil Refinery Strikes and Russia’s Options to Avert a Fuel Crisis

In June 2026, Ukrainian drone strikes targeted and severely damaged Moscow's Kapotnya refinery, the city's main fuel supplier, causing it to be out of operation until early 2027. This disruption has led to a nationwide gasoline production shortfall of about 25%, raising concerns about fuel availability and economic impact. The attack underscores the ongoing conflict's impact on energy infrastructure, and Russia is now faced with challenging options to mitigate the fuel crisis, including potential reliance on alternative suppliers and internal measures to boost production.