Ukraine Has Leverage Over Trump Now

Notable to hear President Trump announce that he had been in contact with President Zelensky of Ukraine to call on him to stop attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Trump suggested that these Ukrainian attacks had been behind the ramp up in diesel prices in recent weeks. This appeared to repeat a narrative from Treasury Secretary Bessent that it was Ukrainian attacks on Russia, and not the war effort on Iran, which had driven US diesel prices to record prices - over $6 a gallon. Obviously, it’s politically useful for Trump to blame the war in Ukraine for the elevation in global energy prices since the war in Iran given the proximity of midterms.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. It’s true that Ukraine has been increasingly successful in hitting Russian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian deep strike drone attacks have hit 30-40% of Russian refineries. It is hard to determine how much capacity has been taken out of action, but it’s been so significant that Russia, which was a significant diesel and refined product exporter, has banned exports. There have, meanwhile, been significant shortages at the pumps across Russia. Ukraine was forced to develop its own – and therein put much effort into the development of deep strike drone capability to replace the US systems. These systems are now proving so effective against Russian energy infrastructure. Trump might be eager to deflect blame for the global spike in energy, and particularly from the war in Iran, but he cannot escape from some of the blame even for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Important here to note that under the Biden presidency when US was providing significant military support to Ukraine – particularly long-range HIMARS and ATACMSs systems – it had leverage over Ukraine. It could threaten to pull those systems unless Ukraine held to certain red lines – particularly limiting attacks on Russian assets with global market impact. Ukraine generally complied. Other Topics of Interest Russia Launches Kalibr Cruise Missiles Directly From Base, Ukraine Says For four months in a row, the warships have been launching the missiles directly from the bay instead of leaving their ports. But things changed under Trump. He pulled financial support from Ukraine and limited delivery of key weapons systems. Ukraine was forced to develop its own – and therein put much effort into the development of deep strike drone capability to replace the US systems. These systems are now proving so effective against Russian energy infrastructure. And as they are home made Ukraine feels little need to ask for US permission to hit longer range targets in Russia. Ukraine still exercised some restraint, however. Because it remained dependent on European financing, Kyiv was inclined to limit actions that could disrupt global energy markets and hurt energy-importing Europe. Ukraine held back. But what changed with Trump’s attack on Iran was that Ukraine saw the US acted on its own interests – attacking Iran and forcing up global energy prices against the interests of key allies in Europe, and Asia. Ukraine saw that what was good enough for the US was good enough for it. States, like the US act in their own national interest, and Ukraine saw the green light to do the same, even though they were hurting the interests of allies. Ukraine took the gloves off. So I would argue that in his management (or mismanagement) of support for Ukraine and then the attack on Iran, Trump cannot get away from significant blame for current high oil, energy and diesel prices. And surely if Ukraine is to stop these attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, then the question is what Trump will supply in return? What’s the quid pro quo? Ukraine now has leverage, or cards. Ukraine will likely demand an uptick in delivery of key air defense systems –Patriot interceptors if it is to pull punches in attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. See the original in the author’s @tashecon blog here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. Timothy Ash Timothy Ash is a London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist for Bluebay Asset Management Company.