Ukraine drone edge blunted by troop shortage as war enters fifth year

Ukraine's commanders say severe troop shortages are limiting the army's ability to exploit drone-led battlefield advantages against Russia. The shortfall is worsening exhaustion, weakening reserves and reducing the scope for larger offensives.Image used for representational purposes onlyKyiv,Oct 8, 2026 11:42 ISTUkraine's gains in drone technology and battlefield tactics have drawn global attention, but commanders and analysts say a chronic shortage of combat-ready troops continues to limit what the country can achieve against Russia. As the war enters its fifth year, some units are operating at only half strength, leaving Ukraine without enough personnel to fully use the advantages created by its drone innovations.The shortage is affecting both defence and offensive operations along the 1,250-kilometre front line. Commanders say there are not enough troops to rotate exhausted soldiers, reinforce weak sectors or turn temporary gains into sustained advances, even as the Defence Ministry pushes reforms in mobilisation, training and military organisation."Based on the equipment and the number of people we have today, we barely have enough to hold the sector we currently have," said "Afer", deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion in the Pokrovsk area of eastern Ukraine, one of the focuses of Russia's offensive. "To move forward would inevitably mean greater losses," he said, identifying himself only by his call sign because of military rules.Military experts say long-running mobilisation problems, including draft dodging and desertion, have made it harder for Ukraine to build reserves, resulting in only incremental changes on the battlefield. Nick Reynolds of the UK-based Royal United Services Institute said Ukraine needs to be able to commit forces quickly without stripping troops from other parts of the front. Otherwise, he said, commanders have fewer options to turn a temporary advantage into a sustained operation. The shortage also means units cannot be rotated often enough, "leading to exhaustion and, in turn, exacerbating casualties", he said. The Defence Ministry, which underwent a shake-up by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July, is trying to address the issue through changes to mobilisation, training and the structure of the army. But uneven performance among front-line units has worsened the problem, with weaker formations taking heavier losses and creating a cycle of attrition and constant replenishment. The ministry did not respond to Associated Press requests for comment, but one of its officials summarised the issue by saying, "There just are not enough people." The official, who was not authorised to brief the media and spoke on condition of anonymity, said a new mobilisation policy, including efforts to encourage deserters to return to duty, was among the most sensitive issues under consideration.Former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who was replaced by Yevhenii Khmara in the summer shake-up, had pushed to reorganise the military around fewer but stronger units by reinforcing those that performed well and disbanding weaker ones. Khmara has said he wants to continue those changes, but Yehor Cherniev, a member of parliament's defence committee, said lawmakers have yet to see mobilisation initiatives. In June, Fedorov introduced reforms to military contracts aimed at making infantry service more attractive through higher salaries and fixed terms of service. Recruitment remains difficult after more than four years of war in a country with an estimated population of 39 million. The pool of eligible men aged 25 to 60 has been reduced by years of demographic decline, displacement and migration. UN figures provided by Ukraine's National Health System put the number of men aged 25 to 59 at about 6.8 million, though that includes wounded veterans and others unable to serve. Official figures put the military's overall strength at about 1 million, with only a small fraction deployed at the front.Compulsory service applies only to men. Women can volunteer, and those with medical or pharmaceutical training must register with the military. Defence Ministry statistics from January 2025 showed more than 70,000 women serving in the army. In March, Fedorov said about 2 million Ukrainian men were evading service, while about 200,000 soldiers had deserted or left their units without authorisation. Desertion can carry a prison term of up to 12 years. Some men flee the country illegally or stay hidden at home, while recruiters stop men on streets and trains and send those without valid exemptions into the army. In January 2025, the government said about 950,000 men had deferments requested by businesses.Russia is also struggling to fill its ranks. After announcing a widely unpopular partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists months after the invasion began, it saw hundreds of thousands of men leave the country. Since then, the Kremlin has relied on volunteers drawn by relatively high pay and benefits to sustain a force that President Vladimir Putin has said includes about 700,000 men fighting in Ukraine.Military analyst Taras Chmut, who also heads the charity Come Back Alive, said Ukraine's problem is not only a shortage of personnel but also how troops are managed and deployed. Increasing the number of personnel in the defence forces does not necessarily make them more effective, he said. Soldiers and analysts say exhaustion, poor organisation, inadequate training and the lack of a clear end-of-service date are pushing recruits to desert. At the front, that leaves fewer troops available to replace battered units, respond to emergencies or exploit openings, though drones can sometimes ease the shortages.Afer said some troops have spent up to a year at the front with little chance of rotation because replacements are scarce. His unit is operating at about half strength while its area of responsibility has doubled, meaning the same number of troops must defend about twice the territory. He said at least twice as many men were needed simply to hold current positions, without counting the constant reserve required to replace casualties. He also said qualified specialists capable of operating increasingly sophisticated battlefield equipment were hard to find, and that troops "who know how to think" were in short supply.Analysts say Ukraine can still carry out localised offensives, but not at a scale that changes the wider balance on the battlefield despite rising Russian losses. It has retaken territory in several areas, including near the eastern city of Lyman. Military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi said manpower was not an insurmountable problem for holding the defensive line. "We can do limited offensives," he said, pointing to recent actions in the Dnipropetrovsk and Lyman areas, "but it's relatively small." According to figures cited by Zelenskyy, Russian forces have occupied roughly 990 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2026, while Ukrainian forces have retaken about 820 square kilometres. He said Kyiv wanted to bring those figures closer to parity by the end of the year, although Reynolds said there would be no fundamental change in the broader battlefield balance and that the front line would remain essentially the same.Overall, Ukraine's troop shortage remains a central constraint on its war effort, limiting rotation, weakening reserves and reducing the scope for larger offensives even as the country continues to modernise its battlefield tactics and technology.With PTI Inputs- Ends