Ukraine Burns While Trump Fiddles

It feels like we are at an absolutely critical stage in the war in Ukraine as both sides vie for a potentially winning edge before winter. First things first, US President Donald Trump seems to have again done the dirty on Ukraine by on the one hand at the recent NATO summit in Ankara promising Ukraine a license to make Patriot missile interceptors. But then on the other seeming take that offer away this week. Meanwhile, we are only now learning of the implications of Trump’s catastrophic failure in his war with Iran – one being that stocks of key US munitions, and particularly Patriot missiles, have been run down to threadbare levels. That sends a clear message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that: a) US support for Ukraine is parlous b) that Ukraine is not getting replenished with Patriot interceptor missiles any time soon. The cupboard is bare, and Ukraine near defenseless against Russian ballistic missile strikes.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. All that is a green light to Putin to rain hell on Ukraine now with ballistic missile attacks and to try and fast-track the destruction of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure before the winter. Time is also of the essence for Ukraine with Russian State Duma elections looming next month, and if it is going to change the political economy of this war it is now – to bring the war home to Russia and Russians by increasing the economic costs. Hence the unrelenting Ukrainian deep strike drone attacks on Russian refineries and distribution and logistics centers like Wildberry. Ukraine is also trying to take out ballistic missile production at source in Russia. Other Topics of Interest Wildberries Warehouse Damaged in Latest Ukrainian Drone Strike as Russia Reports 600+ UAVs Downed Russian officials said drone debris damaged a Wildberries logistics warehouse in the Tver region after a large-scale overnight Ukrainian drone attack. Meanwhile, both sides are engaged in a brutal slug fest in the Black Sea, taking out hundreds of ships now in attacks which risk global impact – note the closure of CPC oil loading at Novorossiysk, and risk to 30% of global wheat supplies. And beyond those State Duma elections, Putin will have to make a critical decision on whether to announce another round of forced mobilization – likely given huge losses in the frontline meat grinder which is not being made up through contract hires. That will be hugely unpopular and potentially politically dangerous for Putin but the latter risks likely moderate if Putin can show that Russia still has the momentum in the war – hence the move to increase ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine. All things considered, it looks like this war is going to get much worse before it gets better. The irony in all this is that both at the beginning of his second term in office and again around the time of the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump had leverage over Putin to negotiate peace in Ukraine from a position of strength. But yet again, Trump’s pretty shambolic, and incoherent foreign policy moves have surrendered up that leverage to Putin – particularly there by his flip-flopping over giving Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriots. Unfortunately, Ukraine burns while Trump fiddles. Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog! See the original article here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post. Timothy Ash is a London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist for Bluebay Asset Management Company.