Ukraine Bumps Average Salary Forecast to $770 in 2027 – Are Ukrainians Getting Richer?

Ukraine has raised the average salary forecast in 2027 to Hr.34,409 ($770 as of September 2026) per month in its 2027 draft budget. The figure is listed under the budget’s more conservative “Scenario 2” – namely a continuation of Russia’s invasion, as opposed to the slightly more optimistic recovery scenario.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “Under forecast scenario 2, the average nominal wage is projected to be Hr.34,409, with real wages rising by 5.3 percent. Compared to scenario 1, the average wage will be Hr.601 [$13.5] lower, and the rate of real wage growth will be 1.2 percentage points lower,” the budget’s explanatory note says. The new budget explanatory note also says a lack of skilled workers pushes average salaries higher. “Upward pressure on wages will persist due to a shortage of skilled workers caused by migration, mobilization, and skills mismatches,” it notes, adding that skilled workers in “defense manufacturing, the energy sector, construction, transport, and other activities related to recovery” are likely to be in high demand. How accurate is the budget? Kyiv has been mostly spot on with its budget estimates. The 2026 average, at Hr.30,088 ($674), has been largely in line with the estimations from the corresponding budget, at Hr.30,032 ($673), according to the explanatory note. The number is also largely in line with those from Ukraine’s State Statistics Service, at Hr.30,455 ($683) in 2026 based on data between January and July. Other Topics of Interest Russia Must List Protected Sites for Energy Truce Kyiv says any ceasefire must cover all energy infrastructure, while Russian oil and gas exports should receive equivalent treatment. How much do Ukrainians make? The State Statistics Service placed the average at Hr.32,243 ($723) as of July 2026. Below is a chart depicting the salary changes since 2020, based on data from the State Statistics Service – data is unavailable for the majority of 2022 and the second half of 2023. In December 2025, the State Statistics Service placed the average salary estimate at Hr.30,926 ($722 at the time), with IT specialists topping the average salary chart at Hr.74,981 ($1,750). For comparison, the average salary for a journalist stands at Hr.21,800 ($489) as of September 2026, according to estimates on the hiring platform Work.ua. How much is it in US dollars? On paper, Ukrainians now earn close to $700 on average, up from $440 in January 2020. Here’s how the average salary, in US dollar terms, has changed since 2020, calculated using average exchange rates from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) for the corresponding months. For 2027, the government has also set the estimated average exchange rate at Hr.47.1 to the US dollar, with an end-of-year estimated rate of Hr.48.3. Why does the exchange rate matter? On the government level, the rate affects debt payments and purchases. At the average Ukrainian level, it also affects their purchasing power – that is, how much they can buy with the salaries they earn. For reference, below is a chart showing the exchange rate between January 2020 and July 2026, based on NBU data. Below is another chart showing Ukrainian average salaries, in US dollar equivalents, alongside the exchange rate over time, indexed to show relative trends since 2020. In simpler terms, the average salary in Ukraine has risen – but so has the US dollar exchange rate, and it still appears to fall short of the rising rates. Leo Chiu is a journalist and editor based in Eastern Europe since 2015. He has witnessed two presidential elections in Belarus and traveled widely to conflict zones and contested regions, producing reporting that bridges the gap between major developments and local realities.