Ukraine backs Trump’s energy ‘ceasefire’. But is Russia on board?

US president Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed an “energy ceasefire” effective immediately, and warned the warring neighbours not to break it.The statement came after another torrid 48 hours in relations between the White House and Kyiv, during which Trump ordered the suspension of sanctions on Russian diesel exports, again blamed Ukraine for failing to end the war, and said it was time for the embattled country to “get a new president”. How has Ukraine responded to Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire?In short – with bewilderment. Volodymyr Zelenskiy called it “news to me”, and other Kyiv officials also said they had been blindsided by the development.READ MOREZelenskiy was quick, however, to say that Ukraine “supports the ceasefire” while “awaiting details from the American side.”At the same time, Zelenskiy said Russia struck energy infrastructure in Kyiv on Sunday, and bombed a large power station in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, shortly after Trump announced the supposed truce.How has Russia reacted?By midday on Monday in Moscow, there had still been no official Russian reaction to Trump’s announcement. In its morning briefing, the Russian defence ministry made no mention of its forces’ attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities.Russian president Vladimir Putin has previously linked any possible partial ceasefire to the removal of international sanctions on all Russian oil and oil products, not just diesel. But while it has been slow to respond publicly to Trump’s announcement, Russia remains keen to negotiate with the US administration. It would ideally like to agree with Trump on terms to end the war in Ukraine, sidelining Kyiv and European capitals.Russian state news agency Tass said on Monday that an unnamed source had denied that US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had cancelled plans to visit Moscow due to developments over the weekend. The source said they still intended to come to Russia once they had “a clear understanding” of Kyiv’s position.Why would Ukraine and Russia want an energy ceasefire?Russian missile, bomb and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid have destroyed more than 60 per cent of its power-generating capacity since the start of full-scale war in February 2022. This has subjected millions of people to blackouts and problems with heating, water supply and public transport, all of which are most severe in winter. Analysts say this winter could be the most difficult of the war, and large-scale power cuts have begun in many areas, including Kyiv.So Ukraine would welcome any respite in attacks on its power stations. At the same time, Russia would benefit from a halt to Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil refineries and storage facilities.The energy sector accounts for about one-fifth of Russian tax revenue, making it a crucial replenisher of the Kremlin’s war chest as military spending spirals and its budget deficit widens.Ukraine says its long-range drone strikes have disabled half of Russia’s refining capacity. Western experts put the figure at between 20 and 40 per cent. According to Russia’s own figures, its energy revenue is down 17 per cent this year, despite world crude prices hitting their highest levels for more than a decade.US president Donald Trump war on Iran has helped pushed diesel prices up by about 70 per cent. Photograph: Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times [ Trump announces partial ceasefire in Ukraine war, but Zelenskiy says deal is ‘news to me’Opens in new window ]Why would the United States want an energy ceasefire?Surveys suggest Trump’s Republican allies could lose of control of Congress in midterm elections on November 3rd, and that rising fuel prices are a factor in their declining popularity. The high cost of diesel – which is important for US farming, transport and other sectors – is a particular irritant.US diesel prices have soared by about 70 per cent since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, and show no sign of falling amid continued severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Energy analysts say the volumes of diesel that Russia could supply in the near future will not have a significant impact on world prices, and that Trump’s war on Iran and instability in the Middle East are – as data show – the crucial factor in this.Trump and his supporters insist, however, that Russian supply will bring down US diesel prices, so Ukraine must stop attacking Russian refineries.The upshot is that Trump is likely to blame Ukraine and Zelenskiy if the energy ceasefire does not take hold, if fuel prices at the American pump remain high and, ultimately, if the Republicans fair badly in the midterms.What would a collapse in relations with Trump mean for Ukraine?Zelenskiy, like all Ukrainians, is now somewhat inured to Trump’s tirades. He has learned to speak positively about the US leader even under extreme duress. He quickly backed the energy ceasefire and said Ukraine would gladly hold presidential elections if Russia adhered to a full, two-month ceasefire. He says he is ready for peace talks at any time, but Russia has declined – without facing any of Trump’s wrath.Ukraine’s arms industry is advancing apace, and is a world leader in drone technology. But the country still relies on US intelligence sharing, Patriot air defence systems and Starlink internet provision, and would struggle if Trump cut them off.[ US president Donald Trump says it is time for Ukraine to get rid of ZelenskiyOpens in new window ]